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** AM I PAST IT? **STARS SNG CHALLENGE. GUESS THE ROI.

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    StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,127
    edited August 2022
    Argentina
    Austria
    Belarus
    Belgium
    Brazil
    Bulgaria
    Canada
    Croatia
    Czech Republic
    Denmark
    Dominican Republic
    Ecuador
    Finland
    Germany
    Greece
    Guernsey
    Hungary
    Ireland
    Japan
    Kazakhstan
    Kyrgyzstan
    Latvia
    Lithuania
    Moldova
    Mongolia
    New Zealand
    Norway
    Panama
    Peru
    Philippines
    Poland
    Romania
    Slovakia
    Sweden
    Switzerland
    Ukraine

    Opponents from countries above.

    It really does still amaze me, that you can be sitting at home playing Poker with people all over the world.

    Mind you, I grew up with a ZX81 with it's 1K or RAM and I later "upgraded" to a Commodore64, with, yep you guessed it 64K.

    Technology over the last 50 years has been unbelievable!
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    MISTY4MEMISTY4ME Member Posts: 6,164
    StayOrGo said:

    We have a Dane!

    GREAT

    :D

    VBOL with this G

    I'll go for 7% and 10% please (if I'm not too late

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    StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,127
    edited August 2022
    MISTY4ME said:

    StayOrGo said:

    We have a Dane!

    GREAT

    :D

    VBOL with this G

    I'll go for 7% and 10% please (if I'm not too late

    Ok @MISTY4ME no problem. TY!

    BTW, which way around? 7% for $10 games and 10% for the $25 games?
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    MISTY4MEMISTY4ME Member Posts: 6,164
    StayOrGo said:

    MISTY4ME said:

    StayOrGo said:

    We have a Dane!

    GREAT

    :D

    VBOL with this G

    I'll go for 7% and 10% please (if I'm not too late

    Ok @MISTY4ME no problem. TY!

    BTW, which way around? 7% for $10 games and 10% for the $25 games?
    YES spot on :)
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    StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,127
    edited August 2022
    Well that was a rollercoaster!

    Sum up of the day:

    Nothing from games 1-5, but recovered with two 2nd's and a 1st in games 6 to 8. Then went on a horrendous losing streak from game 9 to 21 without a single cash!

    I was beginning to feel that I was deluded, thinking I could beat these games. (Still might be)

    However I recovered late on to win games, 22, 25 and 29.

    Observations:

    1) My Snapshove/ICM shoving and calling ranges need some work. Made at least a dozen mistakes that I can think of, and that's just the ones I was aware of.

    2) When in the money, achieving four 1sts, two 2nds and no 3rds or 4ths was great, however I am sure it is just sample size rather than a trend. It would be good if it lasted, but it can't stay that way for sure.

    3) Seemed to do better later at night, when there were lots of Brazillians, maybe there is something to @TheEdge949 's comments. :D

    4) Very happy to have an ROI after 30 games of 21.72% in the $10 SNG's. I feel the long losing streaks combined with the top heavy results when cashing, perhaps evened each other out. Only played one $25 game and didn't cash.

    5) In general there aren't any opponents that "give away their chips." In MTT's you usually find a few, but you have to earn what you get in these SNG's most the time, and having a bit of luck helps too.

    Results from day one below:


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    StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,127
    edited August 2022
    As it stands after day 1 @JACKDAW is the closest with 20%, followed by @Enut with 18% and @Spike4000 with 26%, assuming I haven't missed anyone
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    StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,127
    Cross referencing against Sharkscope, I actually played 31 $10 SNG's last night not 30, so will add one loss to the spreadsheet. (Ignore the $25 one and the $7.50 sat)


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    StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,127
    This lowers the Day 1 ROI to 17.79%


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    StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,127
    edited August 2022
    StayOrGo said:

    This lowers the Day 1 ROI to 17.79%


    Someone has suggested my figures may be wrong. So I double checked them. From the 33 games shown in the sharkscope photo. The $7.50 one and the $25.00 didn't count.

    So that leaves 25 $10 losses, 4 profit of $56.40 and two profit of $39.78 = a $55.16 profit, so the spreadsheet looks right to me. If anyone spots any discrepancies, let me know.
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    StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,127
    edited August 2022
    Pretty grim first half of today. After starting with a 4th and a 1st the session soon spiralled downwards, also played one $25 and didn't cash:




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    StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,127
    edited August 2022
    DISASTER.

    Only good thing is that I managed to get the filters to work (thanks Nicky) on Sharkscope so that the daily totals marry up with the spreadsheet.

    A loss of $110.42 on the day and a daily ROI of -52.58% "matching" Sharkscopes rounded figures.

    I may call it a night, it's all too depressing. :(

    The last 13 games were just awful! It's certainly very humbling.





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    LittleGJLittleGJ Member Posts: 14
    very unsure what good ROI would look like in this format but looking forward to seeing your results and routing for you.
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    StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,127
    edited August 2022
    LittleGJ said:

    very unsure what good ROI would look like in this format but looking forward to seeing your results and routing for you.

    Thanks @LittleGJ it's certainly looking tougher than I'd hoped, but will persevere for a little longer.
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    StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,127
    Tikay10 said:

    StayOrGo said:

    Tikay10 said:

    @StayOrGo


    "So to give myself a little motivation, I thought I would post something on here now that we are part of PokerStars. Hope that is OK?"



    100% fine Graham.

    You coming to SPT Manchester? Be great to see you.

    Not sure yet @Tikay10 there are a few family things that are a bit fluid, so will have to decide nearer the time. I am hoping to be able to go, possibly with my son, Gary, too.
    @StayOrGo


    OK, it'd be great to see you both.
    Fingers crossed, we spend pretty much every weekend together, so it will either be neither of us or both of us, hopefully the latter. It will be up to Gary.
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    StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,127
    edited August 2022
    I have just depressed myself. I remembered that in 2012 I played a few $100 SNG's on STARS in what was their "Battle of the Planets" promo.



    Decent stats for those, and here I am now struggling to break even on the $10 ones.

    I picked up about $2K in promo winnings on top of the $4K winnings and 24.8% ROI

    What a difference 10 years makes! :(

    So what's the reason for the current struggles?

    1) Got worse?
    2) Competitions tougher?
    3) Just had a lucky run? (168 games not enough)
    4) My game is suited to the higher stakes?
    5) Solver use quite widespread in these games?
    6) Just had a bad start the the $10 games?
    7) I am a total "has been."
    8) Midlife crisis? Feels a bit like that tbh. :D

    Bit of each? Some other factors?

    What do you think?

    Any feedback much appreciated.
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    MISTY4MEMISTY4ME Member Posts: 6,164
    StayOrGo said:

    I have just depressed myself. I remembered that in 2012 I played a few $100 SNG's on STARS in what was their "Battle of the Planets" promo.



    Decent stats for those, and here I am now struggling to break even on the $10 ones.

    What a difference 10 years makes! :(

    So what's the reason for the current struggles?

    1) Got worse? Yes probably
    2) Competitions tougher? Yes definitely
    3) Just had a lucky run? (168 games not enough) Yes to a degree
    4) My game is suited to the higher stakes? Possibly?

    What do you think?

    I'd say these two........ I wonder how you would get on at $100 SnG now ?
    .......Sounds like a new challenge ;)
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    StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,127
    MISTY4ME said:

    StayOrGo said:

    I have just depressed myself. I remembered that in 2012 I played a few $100 SNG's on STARS in what was their "Battle of the Planets" promo.



    Decent stats for those, and here I am now struggling to break even on the $10 ones.

    What a difference 10 years makes! :(

    So what's the reason for the current struggles?

    1) Got worse? Yes probably
    2) Competitions tougher? Yes definitely
    3) Just had a lucky run? (168 games not enough) Yes to a degree
    4) My game is suited to the higher stakes? Possibly?

    What do you think?

    I'd say these two........ I wonder how you would get on at $100 SnG now ?
    .......Sounds like a new challenge ;)
    Thanks for the feedback Jez.

    Maybe, but it seems strange to say, I can't beat the $10 ones, so lets try the $100 ones. Don't think my bankroll will stand the losses if it goes pear shaped tbh.

    Baldrick's "cunning plan" was to beat each level before moving up the stakes. B)
  • Options
    MISTY4MEMISTY4ME Member Posts: 6,164
    StayOrGo said:

    MISTY4ME said:

    StayOrGo said:

    I have just depressed myself. I remembered that in 2012 I played a few $100 SNG's on STARS in what was their "Battle of the Planets" promo.



    Decent stats for those, and here I am now struggling to break even on the $10 ones.

    What a difference 10 years makes! :(

    So what's the reason for the current struggles?

    1) Got worse? Yes probably
    2) Competitions tougher? Yes definitely
    3) Just had a lucky run? (168 games not enough) Yes to a degree
    4) My game is suited to the higher stakes? Possibly?

    What do you think?

    I'd say these two........ I wonder how you would get on at $100 SnG now ?
    .......Sounds like a new challenge ;)
    Thanks for the feedback Jez.

    Maybe, but it seems strange to say, I can't beat the $10 ones, so lets try the $100 ones. Don't think my bankroll will stand the losses if it goes pear shaped tbh.

    Baldrick's "cunning plan" was to beat each level before moving up the stakes. B)
    Defo stick to the plan Baldrick

    GOOD LUCK G ........hope to see you at SPT Manchester :)
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    StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,127
    Moderate 12/08/22 session:





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    FeelGroggyFeelGroggy Member Posts: 824
    Hi Graham. The games you are playing are all about massive volume and small ROI, so it would take thousands of games to get an accurate idea of how you perform in these games (and it probably isn't worth it).

    Because it's stars, you're playing against regs from some countries where you can live off $10,000 a year. These players are going to be specialists in the format and have probably played them for years. They have probably spent hundreds of hours studying just that format (and likely play it exclusively) and should be very spot on with their ICM decisions and will have tons of experience playing heads up and short handed. Often these games are much more difficult to beat than it feels like they should be.

    In terms of the numbered questions probably 2, 3 and 5(A). You will no doubt be a better player than you were in 2012, but will have improved at a slower rate than the poker population who catch up over time. Even recreational players these days are much stronger on average than when I started out. Even in 2012 games a 25% ROI in SnG's at that stake feels hard to maintain over a big sample. Perhaps not PIO but I would be surprised if regs didn't use ICMizer or something similar if that is all they play.
    Poker always gets harder over time. It isn't easy to compete against some of the players coming through, who love the game more and will outstudy you. It's never too late to fight back and 'hop into the lab'.

    You can still make money in this game playing unconventionally and different to GTO; but the best players in the modern game have a very strong theoretical base and because of this knowledge know when to deviate from it and play exploitatively.




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