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How good/bad is this?
Doubleme
Member Posts: 1,619
in Poker Chat
So I got called a total mug and a window licker by a reg for a play in the main. out of respect i did ask for permission to post but he called me a window licker so I dont plan to show that respect now.
Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance
Doubleme Small blind 125.00 125.00 8865.00
HULK_SMASH Big blind 250.00 375.00 5887.50
Your hole cards
K
Q
dodger16 Fold
ctbn Fold
K0BAYASHl Fold
dave62 Raise 500.00 875.00 6481.25
Doubleme Raise 1875.00 2750.00 6990.00
HULK_SMASH All-in 5887.50 8637.50 0.00
dave62 Fold
Doubleme All-in 6990.00 15627.50 0.00
Doubleme Unmatched bet 2852.50 12775.00 2852.50
Doubleme Show
K
Q
HULK_SMASH Show
8
8
Flop
6
A
K
Turn
Q
River
4
Doubleme Win Two Pairs, Kings and Queens 12775.00 15627.50
so i think the 3 bet pre is standard I am guessing what is contention is the call of the shove as @HULK_SMASH pointed out I am almost certainly behind his range here. however I need to call if I am reading the hand hand history right 3887 to win 12775 chips. Now if we say that the prize pool is split in half bounty £15 and chips £15. hence 3887 chips is worth £5.83 in non bounty chip ev. and the now total pot of 12775 chips is worth £18.41 but the bounty is worth £11.25. so effectively I need to call £5.83 in order to win £29.66 so my odds I need are 5.83/29.66 I need to be 0.196% to make this a break even call. Now if I assume @HULK_SMASH has only AA and KK in his range here this is a mandatory fold however if he somehow showed AK AQ or QQ I would have the odds to call making this a mandatory call because I am assuming his range is wider then AA-QQ AK and AQ.
So I may have made a mistake in reading the hand history and or the math here but pretty sure my play is correct or am I wrong and a mug window licker?
Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance
Doubleme Small blind 125.00 125.00 8865.00
HULK_SMASH Big blind 250.00 375.00 5887.50
Your hole cards
K
Q
dodger16 Fold
ctbn Fold
K0BAYASHl Fold
dave62 Raise 500.00 875.00 6481.25
Doubleme Raise 1875.00 2750.00 6990.00
HULK_SMASH All-in 5887.50 8637.50 0.00
dave62 Fold
Doubleme All-in 6990.00 15627.50 0.00
Doubleme Unmatched bet 2852.50 12775.00 2852.50
Doubleme Show
K
Q
HULK_SMASH Show
8
8
Flop
6
A
K
Turn
Q
River
4
Doubleme Win Two Pairs, Kings and Queens 12775.00 15627.50
so i think the 3 bet pre is standard I am guessing what is contention is the call of the shove as @HULK_SMASH pointed out I am almost certainly behind his range here. however I need to call if I am reading the hand hand history right 3887 to win 12775 chips. Now if we say that the prize pool is split in half bounty £15 and chips £15. hence 3887 chips is worth £5.83 in non bounty chip ev. and the now total pot of 12775 chips is worth £18.41 but the bounty is worth £11.25. so effectively I need to call £5.83 in order to win £29.66 so my odds I need are 5.83/29.66 I need to be 0.196% to make this a break even call. Now if I assume @HULK_SMASH has only AA and KK in his range here this is a mandatory fold however if he somehow showed AK AQ or QQ I would have the odds to call making this a mandatory call because I am assuming his range is wider then AA-QQ AK and AQ.
So I may have made a mistake in reading the hand history and or the math here but pretty sure my play is correct or am I wrong and a mug window licker?
Comments
Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance
Doubleme Small blind 125.00 125.00 8865.00
HULK_SMASH Big blind 250.00 375.00 5887.50
Your hole cards
K
Q
dodger16 Fold
ctbn Fold
K0BAYASHl Fold
dave62 Raise 500.00 875.00 6481.25
Doubleme Raise 1875.00 2750.00 6990.00
HULK_SMASH All-in 5887.50 8637.50 0.00
dave62 Fold
Doubleme All-in 6990.00 15627.50 0.00
Doubleme Unmatched bet 2852.50 12775.00 2852.50
Doubleme Show
K
Q
HULK_SMASH Show
8
8
Flop
6
A
K
Turn
Q
River
4
Doubleme Win Two Pairs, Kings and Queens 12775.00 15627.50
Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance
Doubleme Small blind 125.00 125.00 8865.00
HULK_SMASH Big blind 250.00 375.00 5887.50
Your hole cards
K
Q
dodger16 Fold
ctbn Fold
K0BAYASHl Fold
dave62 Raise 500.00 875.00 6481.25
Doubleme Raise 1875.00 2750.00 6990.00
HULK_SMASH All-in 5887.50 8637.50 0.00
dave62 Fold
Doubleme All-in 6990.00 15627.50 0.00
Doubleme Unmatched bet 2852.50 12775.00 2852.50
Doubleme Show
K
Q
HULK_SMASH Show
8
8
Flop
6
A
K
Turn
Q
River
4
Doubleme Win Two Pairs, Kings and Queens 12775.00 15627.50
I would assume they would Jam AK and AQ off and also AK and AQ suited. if I give them the tightest range one could reasonably assume they have here I would put it AQ+ AQs+ and 88+ against this range my KQ off suit is 31.137%.
One could retort that they might jam smaller pairs but call to trap with big pairs or the likes but such logic would mean I was doing better against their range so this is me trying to be prudent for the calculations by giving their shoving range the strongest possible strength one could reasonably assume.
now just taking chip ev into consideration we have calling 3887 to win 12775 so 3887/12775 we get 30.4% so in terms of pure chip ev this would be a very marginal call. that is ignoring the bounty factor. if this was pure cash game its a very marginal call if we give them the strongest range.
you normally (rebuy excluded) cannot reload chips in mtts and cannot in this spot so sure that is a factor and having fold equity or more chips to go for bounties later is also relevant you have to consider future play. I think if this was a pure freezeout one could definitely debate a fold but the added bounty factor makes it a clear call.
You also need to think about risk premium and ICM in a tournament e.g. if pot odds to call = 32%, you'll want a few percent more equity than 32% in the early and mid-stages to make the call. Much higher on the bubble and final table. Note that this doesn't factor in future game considerations I.e. what happens to your expected ROI if you win and can then start to dominate the table.
On the hand itself, your 3bet sizing is problematic IMO. You can either flat or 3bet smaller given stack sizes. You then avoid committing yourself to stacking off a reasonable stack size with less than 50% equity. You also give yourself some room to manoeuvre post-flop when called.
The jam with 88 seems a bit loose to me, but probably OK with bounties, especially if BTN is known to open wide and you are known to 3bet wide. Always pay close attention to chat: if somebody thinks a marginal call/fold spot is atrocious when you call, that tells you a lot about the way they play.
suited you have what the 7th best starting hand, 6 combos should worry you, 4 of them should have you terrified........ if opponent tight and good player, you should probly fold a bit, but suited KQ and you survive if you lose and villain is loose, is worth a call/risk more often than not..... 3/1 roughly nice odds,
unsuited there are too many hands that beat you too often, around 18 hands i think, so should lean towards more folds than calls.....imo
once you see the 88, you are pretty happy tho, live cards, proper flip, must be close to 50/50........
I think ICM and future play is definitely a factor but this is early middle stages I would say and folding to the shove would leave me with just under 7000 chips meaning I would be less able to collect bounties and have less room to make bluffs or aggressive plays because my opponents would have me covered so would be more likely to go for my bounty.
if say I had 14000 chips and all the other players at the table had say 10000 then I could definitely see an argument to make the fold here because I still have the table covered if I fold if I call and lose I am now at a disadvantage.
Here though If I call and lose I am significantly crippled yes but I am far from the bubble and folding leaves me short stacked anyway where as calling gives me the chance to get into a better position and the bounty.
I would agree going purely on my math would be the wrong way to do it I should be calling tighter then just that math but that math gave me 19.6% and making the worst assumptions about my opponents range here I need to be 30.4% thats quite a gap.
And 20bb:
There's also plenty of exploitative adjustments you can make in a weak field.
The Blinds are 125/250. Someone min raises to 500. You have KQo. Nothing wrong with the reraise-it is the size of your 3-bet that looks wrong.
You reraised to 1875, with less than 7000 behind.
I would much prefer either raising to about 1250, or indeed jamming. As played, you have effectively pot committed yourself, without putting maximum pressure on your opponent. Which, to me at least, seems the worst of both worlds.
At 1250, I think I find a fold. This isn't just Blind on Blind-the all-in has 2 people to act, not just you. On Sky, with its lack of antes and generally tighter play, I also think you are overestimating the typical range there. A lot of Sky players are flatting or folding AQo, 88-1010.
I think given the stack sizes of button and big blind, I prefer to just to 3-bet all in here. Kinda awkward to find a 3-bet size with our hand which isn't too small but also isn't too big to commit us to calling if 4-bet shoved on. There isn't really a 3-bet non-all-in size that I like with this particular hand.
Could be completely wrong with my thinking here though. Always enjoy reading these hand discussions and seeing the different opinions of people.
1 part of me is thinking firstly, I don't want to be shoving 35 Bigs with KQ off, with 2 to come.
But another part of me is thinking that I really really don't want to be calling someone else's shove with KQ off for 35 Bigs.
I'm starting to think this might be 1 of those rare occasions when flatting the initial raiser for the 500 may be the best (or rather least worst) option
Even if you manage to get say a pot bet called after the flop the turn Q has to kill it for the 88, there's just so much he's behind to.