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Cheltenham 5 pound free bet

Williams12Williams12 Member Posts: 216
edited March 9 in Sports & Betting Chat
let's help those of us who don't know what to do with it how to use that free bet?
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Comments

  • Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 174,659


    A learned friend of mine who is a shrewd punter (& good Sky Poker player) once explained to me that....



    "I think the correct answer is use your free bet to back a horse that is over 10/1 that the bookie is offering very close to Betfair prices on.

    Do not back each way"




    There is quite a complex but proven mathematical logic to that, if anyone is interested I'll expand.

    Copyright Doooobs.
  • MISTY4MEMISTY4ME Member Posts: 6,400
    ^^^^^^^^^

    Interested :p
  • Williams12Williams12 Member Posts: 216
    Tikay10 said:



    A learned friend of mine who is a shrewd punter (& good Sky Poker player) once explained to me that....



    "I think the correct answer is use your free bet to back a horse that is over 10/1 that the bookie is offering very close to Betfair prices on.

    Do not back each way"




    There is quite a complex but proven mathematical logic to that, if anyone is interested I'll expand.

    Copyright Doooobs.

    let's hear more
  • daphne56daphne56 Member Posts: 835
    Has Sky Bet Stopped Doing Free Cash Back On Losers For The 1st Race Tomorrow
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 9,082

    Tikay10 said:



    A learned friend of mine who is a shrewd punter (& good Sky Poker player) once explained to me that....



    "I think the correct answer is use your free bet to back a horse that is over 10/1 that the bookie is offering very close to Betfair prices on.

    Do not back each way"




    There is quite a complex but proven mathematical logic to that, if anyone is interested I'll expand.

    Copyright Doooobs.

    let's hear more
    My maths is reasonable. But there are people - including @Doooobs - who are considerably better than I will ever be.

    I think the maths goes something like this.

    It is not, technically, a £5 free bet. Because a winning £5 bet would include the £5 stake. And a free bet does not.

    This changes the maths on Returns. With a "normal" £5 bet, a Win at Evens Returns £10 (5+5). And a Win at 10/1 Returns £55 (50+5). You are getting 5.5 x more. And making either a loss of £5 (for any loser) or a Profit of £5/50.

    These numbers are rather different from a "free" bet. Now a Win at Evens returns £5 (0+5)-half as much. A Win at 10/1 returns £50 (0+50). You are getting 10 x more. And either making a loss of £0 or a Profit of £5/50.

    The "live" or "dead" stake money changes the odds. In a normal bet, you were much more likely to get your stake money returned with the Evens bet. And that is no longer the case.

    There may be more to this-as I said, my Maths is decent, but not great. But, at the worst, that should start the thought process...
  • lucy4lucy4 Member Posts: 8,457
    Essexphil said:

    Tikay10 said:



    A learned friend of mine who is a shrewd punter (& good Sky Poker player) once explained to me that....



    "I think the correct answer is use your free bet to back a horse that is over 10/1 that the bookie is offering very close to Betfair prices on.

    Do not back each way"




    There is quite a complex but proven mathematical logic to that, if anyone is interested I'll expand.

    Copyright Doooobs.

    let's hear more
    My maths is reasonable. But there are people - including @Doooobs - who are considerably better than I will ever be.

    I think the maths goes something like this.

    It is not, technically, a £5 free bet. Because a winning £5 bet would include the £5 stake. And a free bet does not.

    This changes the maths on Returns. With a "normal" £5 bet, a Win at Evens Returns £10 (5+5). And a Win at 10/1 Returns £55 (50+5). You are getting 5.5 x more. And making either a loss of £5 (for any loser) or a Profit of £5/50.

    These numbers are rather different from a "free" bet. Now a Win at Evens returns £5 (0+5)-half as much. A Win at 10/1 returns £50 (0+50). You are getting 10 x more. And either making a loss of £0 or a Profit of £5/50.

    The "live" or "dead" stake money changes the odds. In a normal bet, you were much more likely to get your stake money returned with the Evens bet. And that is no longer the case.

    There may be more to this-as I said, my Maths is decent, but not great. But, at the worst, that should start the thought process...

  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 9,082
    Just saying that what I said may be only part of the answer.

    I like maths. It's a bit of a hobby of mine. But there are plenty of people out there for whom maths is a living. And they will know more than me
  • rabdenirorabdeniro Member Posts: 4,529
    Hills doing a fiver free bet aswell.
  • rabdenirorabdeniro Member Posts: 4,529
    Paddies doin a fiver aswell.
  • lucy4lucy4 Member Posts: 8,457
    If you used the free £5 bet on tomorrows four main favourites the returns would be.

    Kopek Des Bordes.
    Majborough.
    Lossiemouth.
    Constitution Hill.

    SKY = £35.
    WH = £36.
    PP = £33.
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 9,082
    lucy4 said:

    If you used the free £5 bet on tomorrows four main favourites the returns would be.

    Kopek Des Bordes.
    Majborough.
    Lossiemouth.
    Constitution Hill.

    SKY = £35.
    WH = £36.
    PP = £33.

    That is not my understanding.

    If you bet £5 of your own money, agree that those would be the returns.

    But with a free bet, as Sky say "Free bet stakes not included in returns".

    So-if those horses are (roughly) Evens, 4/7, 4/6 and 8/13 you are only going to get half of what you would otherwise get. Because £5 back from the Evens, not £10, thus halving returns.
  • JammyFkerJammyFker Member Posts: 496
    Think we are getting slightly mixed up here overall

    Lucy is correct @Essexphil (although the odds are slightly bigger now and I would wait to tomorrow to use a free bet on the favourites if you are that way inclined, they should all drift out as they normally do as the bookies try to get them beat on the day. The day of someone on the course having 50-100K is a very very very small percentage (think of JP McManus and 1 or 2 others). You don't lose 1/2 phil, u just don't get the original 5 quid back in your returns calculation.

    The best way to use a free bet is to put it on bigger odds imvho and take a chance. Most people who bet would usually say use a free bet to back an even money shot as it is a waste of the free bet for very little returns. Take a shot at a good price and bash those bookies :)

  • lucy4lucy4 Member Posts: 8,457
    Essexphil said:

    lucy4 said:

    If you used the free £5 bet on tomorrows four main favourites the returns would be.

    Kopek Des Bordes.
    Majborough.
    Lossiemouth.
    Constitution Hill.

    SKY = £35.
    WH = £36.
    PP = £33.

    That is not my understanding.

    If you bet £5 of your own money, agree that those would be the returns.

    But with a free bet, as Sky say "Free bet stakes not included in returns".

    So-if those horses are (roughly) Evens, 4/7, 4/6 and 8/13 you are only going to get half of what you would otherwise get. Because £5 back from the Evens, not £10, thus halving returns.
    This is what you'd get returned on WH using the free £5 the stake of £5 is not included in any returns.


  • JammyFkerJammyFker Member Posts: 496
    daphne56 said:

    Has Sky Bet Stopped Doing Free Cash Back On Losers For The 1st Race Tomorrow

    Prob wait until morning and they will have some more offers up maybe including your desired outcome ;)
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 9,082
    edited March 10
    Fair enough. If that's the way it works, then so be it. In short-I'm wrong.

    Does make the Maths ludicrous, mind.

    Suppose you have a choice. To back 1 horse at Evens. Or 2 horses, both at Evens, as a Win Double. On a free bet. And suppose they both win.

    In the 1st, your £5 free bet returns £5 (10-5)
    In the 2nd your £5 free bet returns £15 (20-5).

    So-you are getting 2/1 on an Evens horse?
  • MISTY4MEMISTY4ME Member Posts: 6,400
    daphne56 said:

    Has Sky Bet Stopped Doing Free Cash Back On Losers For The 1st Race Tomorrow

    I think they are giving everyone the £5 FREE Bet instead ....must be used on Tuesday's CHELTENHAM Racing, and before 5.30pm Tuesday.

    GOOD LUCK everyone :)
  • JammyFkerJammyFker Member Posts: 496
    Essexphil said:

    Fair enough. If that's the way it works, then so be it. In short-I'm wrong.

    Does make the Maths ludicrous, mind.

    Suppose you have a choice. To back 1 horse at Evens. Or 2 horses, both at Evens, as a Win Double. On a free bet. And suppose they both win.

    In the 1st, your £5 free bet returns £5 (10-5)
    In the 2nd your £5 free bet returns £15 (20-5).

    So-you are getting 2/1 on an Evens horse?

    The math's never changes - we just want to maximise the expected value on our possible returns which is why we want to take a shot with our free bet on longer odds especially in horse racing.

    Horseracing - If we bet for 10 years on a horse priced at even money in real terms is never even money or very very rarely in a high class 10 runner grade one field, we will never yield its intended EV and add in the bookmaker's VIG on every bet. A 10/1 shot in the same race will be more likely to yield its actual percentage chance of winning along with its expected value as it should run closer to it's actual expected outcome and much better use of a free bet.

    EV formula - there’s a simple way to calculate how much you might expect to win or lose on a bet. EV = (Probability of Winning × Potential Payout) – (Probability of Losing × Amount Wagered)

    Say we take a hot favourite that is priced at 1/4, and somehow we know that its true probability of happening is 80%. While it's not a bet with a positive or negative expectancy (given 1.25 multiplied by 0.80 equals 1, thus no value) in normal betting, it's +EV because we don't lose money. That's because:

    80% * 0.25 - 20% * 0 = 0.2

    So, ANY event we place a free bet on, it's a +EV bet; thus, a winning bet in the long run. Even if you bet on very short odds, it's a correct play. In my example, 80% of the time we win 0.25*stake, and 20% we lose nothing.

    Let's see what happens with preferring long odds when placing free bets. Say another event pays 10.0 times your free bet, and somehow miraculously, we know its actual probability is 10%, making it a fair play again (0.10 * 10 = 1). But here's the calculation due to the free bet condition: 10% * 9 - 90% * 0 = 0.9

    The result is that not only does betting on long odds have a positive expectancy, but it's also more profitable than betting on short odds, confirming the prevailing notion.

    Your horses scenario = Maths
    If u back one horse at evens with your own £5 u collect £10 = thus making a £5 profit
    If u use your £5 free bet on an evens shot u collect £5 = thus making a £5 profit

    If u back two horses at evens with your own £5 u collect £20 = thus making £15 profit
    If u use your £5 free bet on the two u collect £15 - thus making £15 profit
    (2 even money shots is always 3/1 - 3 even money shots is always 7/1 etc etc)

    Mathematically over time the expected profit is higher by taking more risk on the free bet. Large stakes increase the amount of the free money you’ll retain (on average), but also increase the chance of busting out. Low stakes reduce the amount of the free money you’ll retain.
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 9,082
    I understand and agree with most of that. Here's the bit I don't.

    Betting is about risk and reward. Not just reward. That's like the poker players who confuse prize money won (reward) with profit-prizes less entry fees.

    This is where the free bet differs from the normal bet.

    In my example, with a standard bet, after the first horse has won. You have £10. So on the 2nd bet you stand to win £10. Or lose £10. Because that's what happens with Evens.

    In the free bet example, you only have £5 after the 1st horse wins. If the 2nd horse at Evens wins, you gain an extra £10. And if it loses, you lose £5.

    Which, in my World, means you are getting 2/1 on that 2nd horse.
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