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Cheltenham 5 pound free bet
Williams12
Member Posts: 217
let's help those of us who don't know what to do with it how to use that free bet?
Comments
A learned friend of mine who is a shrewd punter (& good Sky Poker player) once explained to me that....
"I think the correct answer is use your free bet to back a horse that is over 10/1 that the bookie is offering very close to Betfair prices on.
Do not back each way"
There is quite a complex but proven mathematical logic to that, if anyone is interested I'll expand.
Copyright Doooobs.
Interested
I think the maths goes something like this.
It is not, technically, a £5 free bet. Because a winning £5 bet would include the £5 stake. And a free bet does not.
This changes the maths on Returns. With a "normal" £5 bet, a Win at Evens Returns £10 (5+5). And a Win at 10/1 Returns £55 (50+5). You are getting 5.5 x more. And making either a loss of £5 (for any loser) or a Profit of £5/50.
These numbers are rather different from a "free" bet. Now a Win at Evens returns £5 (0+5)-half as much. A Win at 10/1 returns £50 (0+50). You are getting 10 x more. And either making a loss of £0 or a Profit of £5/50.
The "live" or "dead" stake money changes the odds. In a normal bet, you were much more likely to get your stake money returned with the Evens bet. And that is no longer the case.
There may be more to this-as I said, my Maths is decent, but not great. But, at the worst, that should start the thought process...
I like maths. It's a bit of a hobby of mine. But there are plenty of people out there for whom maths is a living. And they will know more than me
So far on this thread £5 free bet (Sky) + £5 free bet (Hills) + £5 free bet (Paddy Power) = £15 total. I hope that helps your maths out.
So, if YOU put this £15 on three horses, YOU will get SFA back
Happy punting folks!
Kopek Des Bordes.
Majborough.
Lossiemouth.
Constitution Hill.
SKY = £35.
WH = £36.
PP = £33.
If you bet £5 of your own money, agree that those would be the returns.
But with a free bet, as Sky say "Free bet stakes not included in returns".
So-if those horses are (roughly) Evens, 4/7, 4/6 and 8/13 you are only going to get half of what you would otherwise get. Because £5 back from the Evens, not £10, thus halving returns.
Lucy is correct @Essexphil (although the odds are slightly bigger now and I would wait to tomorrow to use a free bet on the favourites if you are that way inclined, they should all drift out as they normally do as the bookies try to get them beat on the day. The day of someone on the course having 50-100K is a very very very small percentage (think of JP McManus and 1 or 2 others). You don't lose 1/2 phil, u just don't get the original 5 quid back in your returns calculation.
The best way to use a free bet is to put it on bigger odds imvho and take a chance. Most people who bet would usually say use a free bet to back an even money shot as it is a waste of the free bet for very little returns. Take a shot at a good price and bash those bookies
Does make the Maths ludicrous, mind.
Suppose you have a choice. To back 1 horse at Evens. Or 2 horses, both at Evens, as a Win Double. On a free bet. And suppose they both win.
In the 1st, your £5 free bet returns £5 (10-5)
In the 2nd your £5 free bet returns £15 (20-5).
So-you are getting 2/1 on an Evens horse?
GOOD LUCK everyone
Horseracing - If we bet for 10 years on a horse priced at even money in real terms is never even money or very very rarely in a high class 10 runner grade one field, we will never yield its intended EV and add in the bookmaker's VIG on every bet. A 10/1 shot in the same race will be more likely to yield its actual percentage chance of winning along with its expected value as it should run closer to it's actual expected outcome and much better use of a free bet.
EV formula - there’s a simple way to calculate how much you might expect to win or lose on a bet. EV = (Probability of Winning × Potential Payout) – (Probability of Losing × Amount Wagered)
Say we take a hot favourite that is priced at 1/4, and somehow we know that its true probability of happening is 80%. While it's not a bet with a positive or negative expectancy (given 1.25 multiplied by 0.80 equals 1, thus no value) in normal betting, it's +EV because we don't lose money. That's because:
80% * 0.25 - 20% * 0 = 0.2
So, ANY event we place a free bet on, it's a +EV bet; thus, a winning bet in the long run. Even if you bet on very short odds, it's a correct play. In my example, 80% of the time we win 0.25*stake, and 20% we lose nothing.
Let's see what happens with preferring long odds when placing free bets. Say another event pays 10.0 times your free bet, and somehow miraculously, we know its actual probability is 10%, making it a fair play again (0.10 * 10 = 1). But here's the calculation due to the free bet condition: 10% * 9 - 90% * 0 = 0.9
The result is that not only does betting on long odds have a positive expectancy, but it's also more profitable than betting on short odds, confirming the prevailing notion.
Your horses scenario = Maths
If u back one horse at evens with your own £5 u collect £10 = thus making a £5 profit
If u use your £5 free bet on an evens shot u collect £5 = thus making a £5 profit
If u back two horses at evens with your own £5 u collect £20 = thus making £15 profit
If u use your £5 free bet on the two u collect £15 - thus making £15 profit
(2 even money shots is always 3/1 - 3 even money shots is always 7/1 etc etc)
Mathematically over time the expected profit is higher by taking more risk on the free bet. Large stakes increase the amount of the free money you’ll retain (on average), but also increase the chance of busting out. Low stakes reduce the amount of the free money you’ll retain.
Betting is about risk and reward. Not just reward. That's like the poker players who confuse prize money won (reward) with profit-prizes less entry fees.
This is where the free bet differs from the normal bet.
In my example, with a standard bet, after the first horse has won. You have £10. So on the 2nd bet you stand to win £10. Or lose £10. Because that's what happens with Evens.
In the free bet example, you only have £5 after the 1st horse wins. If the 2nd horse at Evens wins, you gain an extra £10. And if it loses, you lose £5.
Which, in my World, means you are getting 2/1 on that 2nd horse.