Several people have asked me to expand on the logic of how to best use a Free Bet. To be clear, this logic is not mine, it came from two very very shrewd punters, being "doooobs" & Neil Channing.
"I don't think this is entirely correct. I don't think the answer concerning you don't get your stake back fully explains why taking a short price horse is so bad.
Say you had a £50 free bet.
If you back a 1/2 chance. Assume it has a 67% chance of winning, your expectated return is 0.67 x £25 = £16.67
If you back a 3/1 chance. Assume it has a 25% chance of winning, your expected return is 0.25 x £150 = £37.50
If you back a 10/1 chance. Assume it has a 9% chance of winning, your expected return is 0.09 x £500 = £45
If you back a 50/1 chance. I think this is where the theory falls over. A lot of 50/1 chances are 80/1 or so on Betfair, so chance of winning is only 0.0125. So expected return =£2500 x0.0125 = £31.25, which is lower than the expected return on the 10/1 chance.
I think the correct answer is use your free bet to back a horse that is over 10/1 that the bookie is offering very close to Betfair prices on.
Several people have asked me to expand on the logic of how to best use a Free Bet. To be clear, this logic is not mine, it came from two very very shrewd punters, being "doooobs" & Neil Channing.
"I don't think this is entirely correct. I don't think the answer concerning you don't get your stake back fully explains why taking a short price horse is so bad.
Say you had a £50 free bet.
If you back a 1/2 chance. Assume it has a 67% chance of winning, your expectated return is 0.67 x £25 = £16.67
If you back a 3/1 chance. Assume it has a 25% chance of winning, your expected return is 0.25 x £150 = £37.50
If you back a 10/1 chance. Assume it has a 9% chance of winning, your expected return is 0.09 x £500 = £45
If you back a 50/1 chance. I think this is where the theory falls over. A lot of 50/1 chances are 80/1 or so on Betfair, so chance of winning is only 0.0125. So expected return =£2500 x0.0125 = £31.25, which is lower than the expected return on the 10/1 chance.
I think the correct answer is use your free bet to back a horse that is over 10/1 that the bookie is offering very close to Betfair prices on.
Do not back each way
@Tikay10 Not an expert by any means on the gee gees but if ive got a free bet of £10, (which i have) And i decide to put it on a nag @ 10\1 & above..its def gonna be each way. Btw good to see you're home safe & sound after another stellar\tiring weekend...kudos
Several people have asked me to expand on the logic of how to best use a Free Bet. To be clear, this logic is not mine, it came from two very very shrewd punters, being "doooobs" & Neil Channing.
"I don't think this is entirely correct. I don't think the answer concerning you don't get your stake back fully explains why taking a short price horse is so bad.
Say you had a £50 free bet.
If you back a 1/2 chance. Assume it has a 67% chance of winning, your expectated return is 0.67 x £25 = £16.67
If you back a 3/1 chance. Assume it has a 25% chance of winning, your expected return is 0.25 x £150 = £37.50
If you back a 10/1 chance. Assume it has a 9% chance of winning, your expected return is 0.09 x £500 = £45
If you back a 50/1 chance. I think this is where the theory falls over. A lot of 50/1 chances are 80/1 or so on Betfair, so chance of winning is only 0.0125. So expected return =£2500 x0.0125 = £31.25, which is lower than the expected return on the 10/1 chance.
I think the correct answer is use your free bet to back a horse that is over 10/1 that the bookie is offering very close to Betfair prices on.
Do not back each way
People look at it just as a purely math thing? Where does the sport analytics come into it
Comments
Several people have asked me to expand on the logic of how to best use a Free Bet. To be clear, this logic is not mine, it came from two very very shrewd punters, being "doooobs" & Neil Channing.
"I don't think this is entirely correct. I don't think the answer concerning you don't get your stake back fully explains why taking a short price horse is so bad.
Say you had a £50 free bet.
If you back a 1/2 chance. Assume it has a 67% chance of winning, your expectated return is 0.67 x £25 = £16.67
If you back a 3/1 chance. Assume it has a 25% chance of winning, your expected return is 0.25 x £150 = £37.50
If you back a 10/1 chance. Assume it has a 9% chance of winning, your expected return is 0.09 x £500 = £45
If you back a 50/1 chance. I think this is where the theory falls over. A lot of 50/1 chances are 80/1 or so on Betfair, so chance of winning is only 0.0125. So expected return =£2500 x0.0125 = £31.25, which is lower than the expected return on the 10/1 chance.
I think the correct answer is use your free bet to back a horse that is over 10/1 that the bookie is offering very close to Betfair prices on.
Do not back each way
Btw good to see you're home safe & sound after another stellar\tiring weekend...kudos
Joyeuse 11/1
Rock My Way 33/1
L'eau Du Sud 5/1
Pinch of salt to be applied obviously.
Nick Skeleton, lol