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** JACKPOT SYNDICATE ** REMOVER'S SPREADSHEET FOR BATH ON 07/05/18 ** REMOVE 22 **

StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,127
edited May 2018 in (Reserved for) Jackpot Syndicate
PLEASE REMOVE 22 INCLUDING AT LEAST ONE IN EACH LEG:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nC0UXttEtfRIfOV4ExB_hAJlv1x7VD_V03WmMa4Pv7k/edit#gid=0

GL!
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    wynne1938wynne1938 Member Posts: 20,524
    DONE

    I WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO YOUR LIST

    2.15: MAID FROM THE MIST
    4.00: MAX GUEVARA
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    StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,127
    wynne1938 said:

    DONE

    I WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO YOUR LIST

    2.15: MAID FROM THE MIST
    4.00: MAX GUEVARA

    Noted Wynne.

    I won't change anything for now, but will keep an eye out for any market moves.
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    wynne1938wynne1938 Member Posts: 20,524
    2.15 Maid From The Mist

    2yo(18Feb16 gr f)
    TrainerJohn Gallagher (Last 14 days: 2-7, 29%)
    OwnerM C S D Racing Partnership
    SireHellvelyn (GB) (6.3f)
    DamBall Burst (IRE)
    Dam's SireImperial Ballet (IRE) (7.4f)
    BreederTrickledown Stud Limited
    DECLARED
    Tomorrow2:15 Bath 5f
    JockeyJoey Haynes (Last 14 days: 1-13,8%)
    RPR40
    CommentOut of a 2yo sprint winner but was a well-beaten 40-1 shot over C&D on debut 17 days ago.

    Trainer:

    Last 14 days
    Wins: 2Runs: 8(25%)
    Since win flat: 2 runs 4 days
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    wynne1938wynne1938 Member Posts: 20,524
    4.00 Max Guevara

    2yo(07Apr16 b c)
    TrainerWilliam Muir (Last 14 days: 1-3, 33%)
    OwnerF Hope & G Hope
    SireAlhebayeb (IRE)
    DamAssumption (IRE)
    Dam's SireBeckett (IRE) (8.3f)
    BreederD G Iceton
    DECLARED
    Tomorrow4:00 Bath 5f
    JockeyMartin Dwyer (Last 14 days: 2-11,18%)

    Trainer:
    Last 14 days
    Wins: 1Runs: 2(50%)
    Since win flat: 0 runs 4 days
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    vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,300
    Graham probably wont be able to start removals scoring until 5pm tomoz.
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    vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,300
    wynne1938 said:

    2.15 Maid From The Mist

    2yo(18Feb16 gr f)
    TrainerJohn Gallagher (Last 14 days: 2-7, 29%)
    OwnerM C S D Racing Partnership
    SireHellvelyn (GB) (6.3f)
    DamBall Burst (IRE)
    Dam's SireImperial Ballet (IRE) (7.4f)
    BreederTrickledown Stud Limited
    DECLARED
    Tomorrow2:15 Bath 5f
    JockeyJoey Haynes (Last 14 days: 1-13,8%)
    RPR40
    CommentOut of a 2yo sprint winner but was a well-beaten 40-1 shot over C&D on debut 17 days ago.

    Trainer:

    Last 14 days
    Wins: 2Runs: 8(25%)
    Since win flat: 2 runs 4 days

    I would be more worried about his Swiss Miss in 4.00 with De sousa aboard Wynne
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    StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,127
    vaigret said:

    Graham probably wont be able to start removals scoring until 5pm tomoz.

    OK, no problem.
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    StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,127
    edited May 2018
    Wynne/Vaigret.

    The thing with the horses you mention is that if they were to win, then the SP accumulator of the first 6 races would pay more than the Jackpot dividend, and that fact alone means that any line with them in is -ev, which is why they are not selected.

    They may well be value at the price, if so, you should back them singularly, however for a Jackpot bet, unless the odds come in significantly, it would not be value.

    If a 25/1 or 33/1 winner came in, it would without doubt make the SP accumulator > 10,000/1 and a £10K dividend is the best we could hope for via a Jackpot bet, when the roll over is so small.

    So if it feels like I am dismissing these selections, that is the reason why. Nothing to do with my assessment of their ability. However if their price dramatically came in, then I would/will consider them, as the above would then not necessarily apply.

    Hope this makes sense.

    Cheers,

    G
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    wynne1938wynne1938 Member Posts: 20,524
    StayOrGo said:

    Wynne/Vaigret.

    The thing with the horses you mention is that if they were to win, then the SP accumulator of the first 6 races would pay more than the Jackpot dividend, and that fact alone means that any line with them in is -ev, which is why they are not selected.

    They may well be value at the price, if so, you should back them singularly, however for a Jackpot bet, unless the odds come in significantly, it would not be value.

    If a 25/1 or 33/1 winner came in, it would without doubt make the SP accumulator > 10,000/1 and a £10K dividend is the best we could hope for via a Jackpot bet, when the roll over is so small.

    So if it feels like I am dismissing these selections, that is the reason why. Nothing to do with my assessment of their ability. However if their price dramatically came in, then I would/will consider them, as the above would then not necessarily apply.

    Hope this makes sense.

    Cheers,

    G

    I agree with you 100 percent.
    Thanks for your reply.
    I like your explanation and theory.
    We learn something new every day,I know I have become a more shrewd punter since I met you.
    Good luck today
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    wynne1938wynne1938 Member Posts: 20,524
    vaigret said:

    wynne1938 said:

    2.15 Maid From The Mist

    2yo(18Feb16 gr f)
    TrainerJohn Gallagher (Last 14 days: 2-7, 29%)
    OwnerM C S D Racing Partnership
    SireHellvelyn (GB) (6.3f)
    DamBall Burst (IRE)
    Dam's SireImperial Ballet (IRE) (7.4f)
    BreederTrickledown Stud Limited
    DECLARED
    Tomorrow2:15 Bath 5f
    JockeyJoey Haynes (Last 14 days: 1-13,8%)
    RPR40
    CommentOut of a 2yo sprint winner but was a well-beaten 40-1 shot over C&D on debut 17 days ago.

    Trainer:

    Last 14 days
    Wins: 2Runs: 8(25%)
    Since win flat: 2 runs 4 days

    I would be more worried about his Swiss Miss in 4.00 with De sousa aboard Wynne
    I shall add that to my bets.Thanks Terry.
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    SnufferSnuffer Member Posts: 3,057
    G, in the 4.35 you have pasted your removal in the wrong row, didn't want to change it for you as not sure if your removal is TRICKSY SPIRIT or AIRSHOW.
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    zadoczadoc Member Posts: 3,402
    NON RUNNERS

    2.15: QUICK
    2.50: PROMINNA
    3.25: DIVINE CALL
    SPIRIT OF ZEBEDEE
    4.35: BEZOS
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    vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,300
    StayOrGo said:

    Wynne/Vaigret.

    The thing with the horses you mention is that if they were to win, then the SP accumulator of the first 6 races would pay more than the Jackpot dividend, and that fact alone means that any line with them in is -ev, which is why they are not selected.

    They may well be value at the price, if so, you should back them singularly, however for a Jackpot bet, unless the odds come in significantly, it would not be value.

    If a 25/1 or 33/1 winner came in, it would without doubt make the SP accumulator > 10,000/1 and a £10K dividend is the best we could hope for via a Jackpot bet, when the roll over is so small.

    So if it feels like I am dismissing these selections, that is the reason why. Nothing to do with my assessment of their ability. However if their price dramatically came in, then I would/will consider them, as the above would then not necessarily apply.

    Hope this makes sense.

    Cheers,

    G

    On the same page G, just advising wynne thre was another Gallagher horse he should look at.
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    wynne1938wynne1938 Member Posts: 20,524
    My removers list updated
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    StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,127
    Lots of Poker going on atm, so I will update Remover and NAPS tables later tonight.

    The sheet is ready for tomorrow and as it's not a GO-LIVE I will sort tables etc after session tonight.
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    StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,127
    Meanwhile, please can people check their scores.

    Thanks,

    G
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    wynne1938wynne1938 Member Posts: 20,524
    CHECKED
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