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Channing Betting Edges
Dr_Noob
Member Posts: 1
Afternoon Neil,
Any current sports edges are more than welcomed and would be interesting to read, for sure.
Thanks
Any current sports edges are more than welcomed and would be interesting to read, for sure.
Thanks
Comments
Wish I'd done a reverse forecast with PIPER'S NOTE which wasTony Calvin's tip from the show too.
Straight Forecast paid £93.25
Thanks also for taking the effort to come here and ask the question Dr_Noob. It certainly felt like a question that was too difficult for Twitter.
In terms of really specific edges it's always tricky to comment. Clearly if I was to say I always do such and such and that's how I get my living then either the bookmaker offering whatever it is could easily see that and take evasive action or other punters could read it and actively compete with me.
This is one of the age-old questions that Joe Beevers and I faced when we decided to start a tipping site, (If you're so clever why don't you just bet on all the things and win millions, why would you share with us). The answer there is that we do bet on all the things but we only give tips on markets that are extremely liquid, like football to win the game or Asian handicaps, horse-racing at big meetings, golf majors and the NFL. We have been winning on those things so I guess I should be happy to share how I think we do that...
In football I don't have a huge opinion I follow a few other people and my decision is just made on how much to stake, when to ignore one of the people and what to do when they contradict. In general they pick in two ways. A couple of the guys are very much "Moneyball" people, into analytics, looking at shot quality and that sort of thing while the other main guy is more into looking at individual components of each game...for example he looks at such diverse factors as the increased home advantage some teams have due to travel conditions in small obscure league, there are teams in Nordic countries who play part of their season on turf and part on artificial pitches and the total goals massively vary but the market overlooks this etc. Both ways seem to work and can beat what some think of as a "perfect" and totally liquid market...
In golf we have a combination often of great each-way terms that are designed as a promotional loss-leader and therefore are automatically offering value and the opportunity to try to avoid betting with the crowd. Often I find a group of pundits will group around a few selected players and there can be great value just outside of that group. In general my approach is to look for players who are solid to place and just hope to get the odd winner here and there.
NFL is a sport where recency is the punters' enemy. I think if you simply bet against all the teams that won by 20 the week before you'd be fine. The market has more recreational money relative to professional money than any other and that means the traps that recreationals fall into, like betting a lot of overs and favourites, tend to be the ones to avoid.
I hope that helped and it was worth waiting for.
Then and still sometimes today,the bookies were putting to much importance on whether the team were playing at home or away,when they were putting up the odds,
In Scotland outside the premier league ,most of the games only have a few hundred supporters at them,some under 100 so being home or away doesn't make a massive difference ,like it does in bigger leagues with a crowd behind you to give you a lift.
I asked them both if the crowd ever affected them.
They both said absolutely. Positively and negatively.
Booing really does put them off their stride.