I would tell him in the chatbox that I had AA and then shove! (actually not sure if that is aloud or not - we're only ones left in the pot so it should be ok but don't know!!) There's a good chance with this raise that he probably has a hand like AK, making us even more of a favourite than 80/20. Any good player is never raising 4x the BB here so I'm not sure I'd be confident of him folding if I went all in (even though it would be the correct play on his part) Personally I'd do the shortie stack a favour, shove all in and cribble the big stack when he loses. Posted by F_Ivanovic
no good player is gonna 4x full stop at this blind level, its terrible, im jamming here all day long with 4 left and only 2 getting a seat.
I aint done any ICM calcs cos I have no idea how to but the more I think about it, the more I think this is a shove.
If we ship, get called and win we should get a seat vritually 100% of the time.
With that in mind, if we ship I still think the big stack should/will fold a fair amount of the time given how short the other guy is. So when we get called we're gonna be winning at least 80%+ of the time, with the amount of folds we get, I'd estimate we're gonna get knocked out in this hand probably <5% of the time.
Can we really be sure we will cash 95% of the time if we fold?
This is it, if you put yourself in the position of the original raiser (ok ignoring the fact that the bet size wouldn't have been so large) what can you call a shove with when the SS is sitting there with 1.8BB?? Ok, you're trusting them to think logically which considering the original raise size might be slightly optimistic, but I would suggest the raise is there to pressurise the SS knowing that the 99.5% of the time you're not holding AA you have to fold.
I would hope a shove gets through enough of the time to make this correct.
So wait! - you're telling me there's only three left? - And the next one gets the cash? - I can't get my head around it. - there must be a fourth person at least? - lol.
All joking aside I think I'm going with it. you're never going to get a better hand (presumably if you were first to act you would have shoved?) and you know he can't have you dominated, - so yeah you could get unlucky and go out, but odds are in your favour & we're playing an odds based game, so that has to be a determining factor. -
as someone else mentioned, - the £18 cash you'd get is half of the buy in anyway, so if you do luck out, then you're over half way to your destination (not ideal I grant you, but better than nowt).
Also I think I'd put the villain on a medium-ish hand at best as I think He'd shove with anything decent (including small-mid pairs?) - perhaps that is an indication of their level of competence,
so IMO range includes Ace-X (in which case you're way ahead) or two paint cards even as far as higher suited connectors) - either way, they're miles behind to Aces and if you're not going to take a risk now & again...,
Fortune favours the bold!
That said, you're probably best not listening to a word I'm saying.
Glad you won in the end anyway, - even if you did get a nesty sweat. - I hope you go on to do well tonight mate.
The raiser had raised to 4k, once previous maybe about 8 hands or so before this hand, but i never got to see his cards. I ended up finishing 21st in the tournement but made some stupid donk move that knocked me out.
with the stack sizes the shorty will finish 3rd 81.5% of the time , meaning you will get a seat 90% of the time with 10% of the time you finishing 3rd.... highly doubt this guy is 4x/f many hands.... Fold pretty much lock up a seat>everything else
Your action is determined by the ss, if ss folds then fold if ss calls then just call but fold to a shove from behind ---- done ICM calc and it's a fold after sb folds - even if oppo calls your shove with: 66+,ATs+,AJo+ Posted by rancid
Comments
3 left, so 2 seats and whoever goes out next gets the cash.
Christ, as Lambert has stated several times, and myself. There are 3 players left, 2 get seats! And the short stack has 1.8bb's.
Im glad this got many replies, and theres alot of dispute over what the correct play is, im still in the middle, i still dont know what to do lol
if ss calls then just call but fold to a shove from behind
----
done ICM calc and it's a fold after sb folds -
even if oppo calls your shove with:
66+,ATs+,AJo+
If we ship, get called and win we should get a seat vritually 100% of the time.
With that in mind, if we ship I still think the big stack should/will fold a fair amount of the time given how short the other guy is. So when we get called we're gonna be winning at least 80%+ of the time, with the amount of folds we get, I'd estimate we're gonna get knocked out in this hand probably <5% of the time.
Can we really be sure we will cash 95% of the time if we fold?
All joking aside I think I'm going with it. you're never going to get a better hand (presumably if you were first to act you would have shoved?) and you know he can't have you dominated, - so yeah you could get unlucky and go out, but odds are in your favour & we're playing an odds based game, so that has to be a determining factor. -
as someone else mentioned, - the £18 cash you'd get is half of the buy in anyway, so if you do luck out, then you're over half way to your destination (not ideal I grant you, but better than nowt).
Also I think I'd put the villain on a medium-ish hand at best as I think He'd shove with anything decent (including small-mid pairs?) - perhaps that is an indication of their level of competence,
so IMO range includes Ace-X (in which case you're way ahead) or two paint cards even as far as higher suited connectors) - either way, they're miles behind to Aces and if you're not going to take a risk now & again...,
Fortune favours the bold!
That said, you're probably best not listening to a word I'm saying.
Glad you won in the end anyway, - even if you did get a nesty sweat. - I hope you go on to do well tonight mate.
The SS has folded.