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sky poker hates me suddenly!!!
jdsallstar
Member Posts: 1,675
last two days beats include:
ak vs a10 twice, AQ vs q8, ak vs 56, ak vs q9.
i have 66 and flop comes 678 other guy has 5 9 (raised pot preflop). all in with kk late on in dym other guy has aa, 10 10 into jj, jj into qq, QQ into KK and to top it off i cant win any type of race and seem to lose all my 60 40's as well. all my blind steals running into monsters etc etc
KQ on button. 1 guy limps in i reraise to about 4 times bb from the button. he calls flop comes K J 3 he checks i raise about 3/4 of pot. he calls. ace on turn and i check it down. what does he have A5 off. then theres being low stack with 4 ppl left in a dym and get AK and the chips go in and what do they have....AK too. that happened twice as well.
As we speak i've just raised the pot 4 x bb with qq and bb calls. flop comes 532 and he limit bets me i reraise big and he flats. turn comes another 5. guess who just hit trips?!
I'm sure there's loads more over the last week but those are the ones i can remember from last two days. Thing about is i think im actually playing pretty well which has meant im not getting totally annihilated (sp?) and i keep telling myself i must be about to go on a very good winning run but any decent winning run is closely followed by some of the things described above.
Anyway moan over and im sorry poker gods for whatever i've done but please stop the punishment lol
ak vs a10 twice, AQ vs q8, ak vs 56, ak vs q9.
i have 66 and flop comes 678 other guy has 5 9 (raised pot preflop). all in with kk late on in dym other guy has aa, 10 10 into jj, jj into qq, QQ into KK and to top it off i cant win any type of race and seem to lose all my 60 40's as well. all my blind steals running into monsters etc etc
KQ on button. 1 guy limps in i reraise to about 4 times bb from the button. he calls flop comes K J 3 he checks i raise about 3/4 of pot. he calls. ace on turn and i check it down. what does he have A5 off. then theres being low stack with 4 ppl left in a dym and get AK and the chips go in and what do they have....AK too. that happened twice as well.
As we speak i've just raised the pot 4 x bb with qq and bb calls. flop comes 532 and he limit bets me i reraise big and he flats. turn comes another 5. guess who just hit trips?!
I'm sure there's loads more over the last week but those are the ones i can remember from last two days. Thing about is i think im actually playing pretty well which has meant im not getting totally annihilated (sp?) and i keep telling myself i must be about to go on a very good winning run but any decent winning run is closely followed by some of the things described above.
Anyway moan over and im sorry poker gods for whatever i've done but please stop the punishment lol
Comments
2 tourneys today AK vs KQ both all in preflop - he hits queen. He wasnt short stacked just a bad call.
other tourney all in with AQ utg with a stack of 1600 blinds at 150/300. guy beside me with stack of 2500 calls with 77. i miss he hits another 7.
I know in the second one he is slight favourite but it's still a terrible call because he is at best a coin flip and possibly dominated. so at best he wins 51% of the time he needs to cash 55% of the time to break even in a dym which he would have struggled to do with an 750 stack. it just representative of me losing every coin flip.
In the same tournament another player raises from small blind against big blind chip leader. blinds 100 at the time. big blind goes all in for about 5k. other guy calls with about 2k. BB turns over AA and sb shows A10 suited. A10 hits a flush on the river. if he'd went out i would have made the money. my bad run is now affecting other people too lol
10 10 vs A2. all in pre. and in previous game there was 2 limpers - and i reraise to 4 times the blind with jj guy goes all in and i fold. he had kk (well thats what he claimed and he seemed genuine).
im ready to get my coat
AJ vs QJ and i won!!!
AA vs 88
of the 9 i lost here are some of the ways i went out:
AK vs KQ
AQ vs 77
10 10 vs A2
AQ vs A10
AA vs 88
Was nearly a complete disaster of a day but managed to win my last 5 in a row to salvage something.
Of the the 6 i won i never sucked out on any all in situation or in any of the games for that matter and lost all the marginal all ins in the remainder i.e. j10 vs A7, k5 vs 22 (admittedly was very low in this one). other two were 99 running into jj and 55 running into 10 10.
maybe my luck will change tomorrow and I can keep my winning run going.......
I checked the hands that saw an all in situation and a showdown.
In the 15 games I played i had 17 all ins with a call from an opponent(s) and the hands were as follows:
Me Opponent Flop My % to win hand Won/Lost hnd Won/lost game AA 88 79% W W
KK 25s 80% W W
KK AJ 71% W W
QQ A7 71% W W
KQ 97s 60% W W
AK A4 71% W W
99 A6 9A2 95% W W
AA 88 80% L L
AQ A10 70% L L
AJ QJ 72% W W
99 JJ 19% L L
10 10 A2 71% L L
J10 A7s 43% L L
K5 22 AJ 30% L L
55 10 10 19% L L
AQ 77 45% L L
AK A10 71% L L
*if no flop given that means the money went in preflop. Percentages checked using poker odds calculator app.
The average of these percentages is 70% and i won 47% (8/17). in theory i should won 12 (70%*17) whereas I won 8. Assuming i went on to cash (I know not a given) in 4 more tourneys that the odds suggest i should have that would have meant I cashed for £100 instead I only cashed for £60. so instead of a small profit of £7.5 I made a loss of £33.50 for the session.
I really need to get out more.........lol
2 tables:
AK vs 10 10
and
AJ vs A6 (hit flush)
Being a 70% favourite means that you lose 30% of the time, losing virtually 1in3 is pretty common as things go.
Most of the ones where you were crushing, you did win, and most of the ones you lost you were flipping or in the 55 v TT example crushed, seems perfectly standard
Most of the ones i lost i was not flipping. out of the 9 i lost i was 70%+ favourite in 4 of them, virtually flipping in two, equal 30% favourite in another and crushed in the other two.
I can accept this happening for one day but its been about a week of this for me (sharkscope highlights it).
The chance of heads or tails on a coin is 50/50, so in theory flip it 10 times and you'll get 5 of each.
However, the odds of doing 10 flips and getting 7 or more heads are only 1in8 ish.
So if we did 10 flips, loads and loads of times like we play loads and loads of poker hands, it's gonna happen sometimes, and the more you play, the more often it'll happen.
so yeah by pure percentages i should have won 9 games in theory. so yes not quite as bad as i thought. i would argue though that 47% vs 61% is not that far off - its 22%. or a +10% roi vs -14.5% roi. putting that in terms of my game -im taking my bad run starting about 140 games ago. The difference here then would be profit of £75 vs a loss £106. thats a £181 swing. now i havent looked at the hands from those 140 games so cant claim anything about hand percentages but i imagine it wouldnt too far off.
As i said though i can easily accept bad runs over a short period of time but its getting close to about 2 weeks of this and it's beginning to really annoy me now. but i'll keep plugging away.
I analysed yesterdays games because it felt typical of my recent run and i wanted to see how lucky or unlukcy i was vs my perceptions. After i had analysed it i thought i'd share the results because i thought it might interest some.
Keep your p ecker up, it will even out eventually.
I had a similar run a couple of weeks ago, where no matter how big a 'fav' i was , i could pretty much cringe at what was coming on the turn or river. (confidence shot to pieces lol)
At least you can laugh about it which is a good sign...
completely card dead in one and tried to steal a blinds with a shove. bb had kq and took down my 43.
2nd game didnt need to go all in and cashed. 3rd game KK vs A10...... not saying anything.
ok....deep breath.....so to follow on from yesterday i thought i'd post yesterdays showdown all in results.
Me Opponent Board My % to win hand won/lost hand Pot Exp. Pot
KQs J8s 3spades 100% W 2465 2465
AA J9s 79% W 3650 2884
KK A10 71% L 2805 1992
A9 K9s 68% W 1572 1069
AQs J9 66% W 4750 3135
AQ K8 65% L 2685 1745
AJ A6s 65% L 2640 1716
KJ K10s 65% W 3807 2475
99 Q9s 63% L 4200 2646
AK 75s 59% W 1390 820
66 K10 52% L 2900 1508
AK 10 10 43% L 3380 1453
43 KQ 35% L 1440 504
AQ KK 28% W 3310 927
44 JJ 19% L 4375 831
26,169
So analysing the data. my average win percentage is 63% and i won 47% of the hands (7 out of 15). I won 20,944 from the hands won and my expected pot wins was 26,169 (fall of 20%).
If you exclude the top 2 and bottom 2 results, in case they skew the data, my win percentage would become 59% and i won 36% of hands. I won 11k in pots and my expected pot wins would have been 19k
From 11 games i won 5 therefore I cashed 45%. Using my showdown percentage I should have cashed in 7. Differene in profit is a loss of £10.5 vs a profit of £9.5. £20 swing.
So another day goes by without things going my way but I didnt feel quite as hard done by as the previous day and i did get some hope from actually outdrawing someone (AQ vs KK). it was more a case of losing the 60%'ers and both coin flips that have hurt me from yeserday.
Dont worry this is the last one I'll post of these lol I'm retiring as a statistician.....it takes too long.
If it is DYMs then it might be worth considering whether you actually NEED to take these races on the bubble of a DYM