Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?

LARSON7

Just wondering what people would do here with queens, facing such a massive overbet? Totallyreadless, oppnent is knew to table

JNWallerSmall blind £0.02£0.02£5.11Superman_Big blind £0.04£0.06£3.42 Your hole cardsQQ   LARSON7Raise £0.20£0.26£10.94hoggy245Call £0.20£0.46£4.06aquajimCall £0.20£0.66£1.18mitchymofoCall £0.20£0.86£0.42JNWallerAll-in £5.11£5.97£0.00Superman_Fold    LARSON7Fold

calcalfold

Without reads, we just have to look at the numbers and assign a standard range based on the average 4nl player

6xAA
6XKK
1xQQ
6xJJ
16xAK


I fold, although I am a bit of a nit at 4nl.

If we call, we must make a note that villain re ships over 20p with XX and a £5.30 stack. So making a mistake can be used as a reference point in the future.

hhyftrftdr

Snap call.

F_Ivanovic

We need 45.1% equity to call. (£4.91 to win a £10.88 pot and 4.91/10.88 = 0.45)

Against a range of JJ+ and AKs we only have 42.5%, so it's a fold. If we add in AKo then we have 47.4% so it becomes a call. Taking out JJ but keeping in AKo we only have 40%.

Given that the equities in this tight range though are all fairly close to the equity that we need to call, I think folding would be a big mistake without any read on villain because if we widen their range at all, we suddenly have way more than the required equity needed. For example, if they decide to shove the top 5% of their hands (99+ AJs+ KQs) here we have 58.3%! against their range. So we end up making a huge (13.2% mistake) by folding. Whereas in the scenarios before with the tight ranges, the biggest mistake we can make by calling is 5.1%.

In conclusion - if you'd hardly noticed this player at the table (yet been playing a long time with them) then you could fold, but against any player that has been somewhat active or against a completely new player that you'd never played with, it would be a mistake to fold.

GREGHOGG

In Beane speak...

"Call cos we has dem Queenies"

FWIW this is 2 big picture cards like AK alot imo! just dodge them overs!

calcalfold

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:

We need 45.1% equity to call. (£4.91 to win a £10.88 pot and 4.91/10.88 = 0.45) Against a range of JJ+ and AKs we only have 42.5%, so it's a fold. If we add in AKo then we have 47.4% so it becomes a call. Taking out JJ but keeping in AKo we only have 40%. Given that the equities in this tight range though are all fairly close to the equity that we need to call, I think folding would be a big mistake without any read on villain because if we widen their range at all, we suddenly have way more than the required equity needed. For example, if they decide to shove the top 5% of their hands (99+ AJs+ KQs) here we have 58.3%! against their range. So we end up making a huge (13.2% mistake) by folding. Whereas in the scenarios before with the tight ranges, the biggest mistake we can make by calling is 5.1%. In conclusion - if you'd hardly noticed this player at the table (yet been playing a long time with them) then you could fold, but against any player that has been somewhat active or against a completely new player that you'd never played with, it would be a mistake to fold.
Posted by F_Ivanovic

Why does nobody ever account for rake in their calculations (or at least in marginal hands for stacks). Every pot we win we can take off about 70p, which vastly alters the numbers in this spot.

Jac35

in need of a very good reason to consider folding here

DrSharp

Don't play much NL4 nowadays but this was always a dance around the room call a couple of year ago. I think the range spoken about in this thread is incredibly tight for NL4 readless, Would'nt surprise me one jot to see villain flip over J,8 off suit.

LARSON7

lol normally at 4nl the open shove is aces or kings. That's why i folded.

But in this example, it was a wrong fold. Ironically it ended up in a 4 way all in lol

hhyftrftdr

I would never fold QQ pre at 4nl, whatever action happens in front of me.

craigcu12

the time it is really going to be AA or KK on nl4 is when it was started off with a limp. if he were not able to limp  the chances are he would only make the call preflop then either jam or check raise on the flop itself.

DeucesLive

Screams middlish pair to me... typical tournament player dabbling in cash that bags 77/88/99 or such and is overvaluing it, by a lot.

rancid

never fold without specifc read

as for figuring in rake, as rake is taken from the eventual pot as showdown then when working out ev lines you simply do not account for rake.
Plus it would get even more complicated when you try and figure in rakeback !


if rake is at such a % where it makes playing a certain range -EV then you have to answer yourself why are you playing where your playing or like you hint at you just have to tighten the belt

but you really shouldn't pay too much attention to rake, kinda drags you away from the more important issue of finding the greater +EV line

NColley

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:

never fold without specifc read as for figuring in rake, as rake is taken from the eventual pot as showdown then when working out ev lines you simply do not account for rake. Plus it would get even more complicated when you try and figure in rakeback ! if rake is at such a % where it makes playing a certain range -EV then you have to answer yourself why are you playing where your playing or like you hint at you just have to tighten the belt but you really shouldn't pay too much attention to rake, kinda drags you away from the more important issue of finding the greater +EV line
Posted by rancid

rofl what a nonsense post.

If you're taking a 50/50 flip with no dead money in the pot and the rake is 7.5% then its not a 0EV line its a -EV line.

rancid

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold? : rofl what a nonsense post. If you're taking a 50/50 flip with no dead money in the pot and the rake is 7.5% then its not a 0EV line its a -EV line.
Posted by NColley

lol you rubbish my post by showing this toy example

wp

Just advising to concentrate on making the greater +EV play rarther than sweating rake at the tables

I mean come on your example has no real world application, you range 50/50 - with no fe - no dead money ?

We can pick toy examples out of thin air - it doesn't prove anything - would seem your just trying to rubbish what I am saying with no real hard facts to back up what your saying.

NColley

Prove why we should ignore rake of 7.5% at the micros.

You just keep on making posts that read through terribly and don't actually have any valid point in them.

devonfish5

I fold every time m8.
lose 20p next hand.

even with good reads on a player you could still be racing at best.
I might call for around 50bb's or less,which would indicate to me that this player hadn't topped up,but imo no need to risk 100 bb's or more.
I can find a better spot to get 100 bb's in.

dev

rancid

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:

Prove why we should ignore rake of 7.5% at the micros. You just keep on making posts that read through terribly and don't actually have any valid point in them.
Posted by NColley

My point is quite clear that you should not concentrate on rake when making plays.
I mean you could figure this into your strat and get them to fold a lot pre in 100bb 3 bet pots etc..

Your simply talking about a spot where you have to call off 50/50, I think anyone with a basic understanding of EV know what to do in that spot.

Just think your going to get sidetracked at micros concentrating on rake, where situaions are all about range, equity , EV.


I just think when people at micros contemplate rake they do it after the end result.
"O look I was actually flipping and we both lost .16p"
Very easy to know the asnwer with hindsight, doesn't mean your play was wroung.

NColley

Using F Ivanovics earlier post the rake is going to be 7.5% of 10.88 = 0.816 rounded up so 82p.

So we actually need odds of 4.91/10.06 = 0.488, or 49% which is a 4% difference. Its fairly significant. Here in this example villain now needs to be getting in TT+, AK for us to have 51% and a marginally +EV play.

rancid

rake will stay the same

Would be better to focus on villians range and if villian is shoving wider than TT+,AKs,AKo your making a mistake by folding.

It's no secret there is a big hand - big bet strat to micros and it's all to do with rake plus the obvious NOFE at micros.

I grant you rake % affect everything from pre flop raises, how you should play your draws - how you should play agianst draws escpially.

If people are going to start folding big hand pre becuse of rake then your going to need some luck.

Need to think about range v range before rake


I will agree anyalising plays alongside rake % is good @micros but seriously it should not alter you plays at the table where you just become paranoid about rake.

A lof of micros start out there that alot of mircos players are employing actually take rake into consideration.
So if your implementing good micro strat rake should not be at the forefront of your mind when playing.

calcalfold

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:

Prove why we should ignore rake of 7.5% at the micros. You just keep on making posts that read through terribly and don't actually have any valid point in them.
Posted by NColley

x2 for your first point.