Tbf, there's no right or wrong without some specifics because there are just WAY too many permuations.
If you have 12xBB and it's the stone bubble (3 players and 2 seats)...
One scenario is the other 2 villians have 2xBB and 12xBB in which case it's an easy call with ATC imo because one of the big stacks has to take a stand and we are getting the price and have to go for it now while he's as short as he's ever gonna be. We fold here and he goes from 2xBB to 3.5xBB because he stole the big and small. Are you gonna hope the other guy does the dirty work? Cos what if he's thinking exactly the same as you... in a matter of like 5 hands that shorty could easily be on 7-8xBB if both big stacks sit back waiting and you've thrown away a pretty low risk chance to get a seat and he is now completely back in the game.
Another scenario, BOTH villians have 2xBB, in this case we might be more likely to fold trash hands cos they will HAVE to clash with each other at some point or blind down. They can't both double up if we keep folding.
How so Don? What GaryQQQ has described is standard satellite theory, isn't it? Posted by FCHD
I think you misunderstand me.
I do not dispute Gary's satellite theory. I have a very different approch to sats which work for me. Over multiple sites, and has seen me play in some pretty nice events, and make some money too.
Satellite strategy i think is flawed in general, its great for beginners, but once you start to develop an understanding and gain experiance its wrong imo. That is my opinion.
The reason why i said Wrong to gary was his comment about in xxx situation if u fold 100% of hands u are 100% guarenteed a seat. This is a flawed arguement. Unless you have won the seat you are never 100% to win it. The reason being is the shorter stack can consistantly double up, eventually blinds rise and we've folded every hand, and what do u know now we've blinded down and are the shorty. We now shove get called and bubble. Ive seen it happen numberous times.
Giant811 once told me about an SPT sat thats bubble lasted for over an Hour, i think it was for this years Notts 6max, might have been Birmingham - ill confirm that next time i speak to him.
Last year i qualified for UKIPT Nottingham. The bubble of that sat (10 left 8 seats) i was chip leader, one guy had 2k less chips than me (about 1BB) the rest where short, i took the fold every hand apporch Gary mentions. Two of the closer stacks to me and the other guy - who took the same approch as me, clashed with AA and KK more than standard. The AA guy held, and decided to shove literally every hand. Shortys doubled up a few times, eventually when the bubble burst i had folded away over half my stack. If one more shorty doubled i wud have had to consider getting my chips in, in a large number of spots.
Was i 100% guarenteed that seat - NO!. That was only about 5 or 6 orbits. Admittedly that did also have antes in play though.
Never ever 100% guarenteed something unless u already have it.
having read these comments,i still think that the 4 folds made against the shorter shoves must be wrong,i agree with the satelite theory to a certain extent.
Again i was a little heated when posting the thread,and should have thought about how i approached the issue. i can only apoligies for the title of the thread.
I hold my hands up and hope that no harm as been done to anyones reputation due to the thread.
I like to think I do reasonably well in Satellites with a win rate of just over 60% in "One in Five" Satellites.
My view is that so much depends on other stacks on other tables. For example, in a typical Primo Semi Final, there may be 100 runners & 20 seats available. When it reaches the bubble, there are four tables. Normally the blinds will be 1.5k/3k with an average stack of 10k. This means that almost certainly someone is going to be all in for less than one bb within an orbit on at least one of the tables.
I pretty much know that an 11k stack makes you safe and that an 8k stack makes you over 90% safe, provided that you don't play a hand. This doesn't answer the question due to the variables but my default position is that over 15k, I don't play any hand. At 11k, I shove AA, KK & QQ (call AA & KK). At 8k, I also shove JJ, TT & AK & call AK & QQ.
I don't know any more details than what have been posted on this thread but I think I would fold here many times as would many players.
If you're the big stack on the bubble of a satellite and folding every hand 100% guarantees you a seat then you should do exactly that; fold every hand. Including pocket AA. Poker is a dog-eat-dog game, to maximise profits you have to be selfish and do what's best for you, not what's best for short stacks on other tables. Posted by GaryQQQ
having read these comments,i still think that the 4 folds made against the shorter shoves must be wrong,i agree with the satelite theory to a certain extent. Again i was a little heated when posting the thread,and should have thought about how i approached the issue. i can only apoligies for the title of the thread. I hold my hands up and hope that no harm as been done to anyones reputation due to the thread. Next time i will think before i post. Posted by rubydu
You are a top bloke Mr Ruby, thank you very much. I wish you well.
Unrelated, but in the same department I suppose, I was playing one of the smaller UKOPS Events last night. I was going along quite nicely, & raising it up pre - a LOT - certainly by my standards. But I was amusing myself by varying the amounts I raised each time. I actually did it in sequence to see if anyone noticed. My first raise was 2x, then I went 3x, 4x, & 5x. I went back down the scale then - 5x, 4x, 3x, 2x. Not a soul said a word, we were all just chatting & having a fun time.
Suddenly one player (seemingly new here, not seen him/her before) says....
"are you on drugs tikay? You are so dumb. Don't you know raising 5x is really really dumb?"
Bit of a debate then ensued, when he tried to convince me that there is ONLY ONE OPTIMAL RAISE SIZE in poker. 2.2x
He was serious, too. I tried to tell him about my cat. I skin it, regularly, but always different ways, just to mix it up a bit, to balance my cat skinning range, so to speak.
There is never a you must always in poker strategy.
Anyway Mr Ruby, you've started a useful debate now, & one or two have realised that these things are rarely as cut & dried as they may at first sight seem.
Comments
If you have 12xBB and it's the stone bubble (3 players and 2 seats)...
One scenario is the other 2 villians have 2xBB and 12xBB in which case it's an easy call with ATC imo because one of the big stacks has to take a stand and we are getting the price and have to go for it now while he's as short as he's ever gonna be. We fold here and he goes from 2xBB to 3.5xBB because he stole the big and small. Are you gonna hope the other guy does the dirty work? Cos what if he's thinking exactly the same as you... in a matter of like 5 hands that shorty could easily be on 7-8xBB if both big stacks sit back waiting and you've thrown away a pretty low risk chance to get a seat and he is now completely back in the game.
Another scenario, BOTH villians have 2xBB, in this case we might be more likely to fold trash hands cos they will HAVE to clash with each other at some point or blind down. They can't both double up if we keep folding.
My view is that so much depends on other stacks on other tables. For example, in a typical Primo Semi Final, there may be 100 runners & 20 seats available. When it reaches the bubble, there are four tables. Normally the blinds will be 1.5k/3k with an average stack of 10k. This means that almost certainly someone is going to be all in for less than one bb within an orbit on at least one of the tables.
I pretty much know that an 11k stack makes you safe and that an 8k stack makes you over 90% safe, provided that you don't play a hand. This doesn't answer the question due to the variables but my default position is that over 15k, I don't play any hand. At 11k, I shove AA, KK & QQ (call AA & KK). At 8k, I also shove JJ, TT & AK & call AK & QQ.
I don't know any more details than what have been posted on this thread but I think I would fold here many times as would many players.
Unrelated, but in the same department I suppose, I was playing one of the smaller UKOPS Events last night. I was going along quite nicely, & raising it up pre - a LOT - certainly by my standards. But I was amusing myself by varying the amounts I raised each time. I actually did it in sequence to see if anyone noticed. My first raise was 2x, then I went 3x, 4x, & 5x. I went back down the scale then - 5x, 4x, 3x, 2x. Not a soul said a word, we were all just chatting & having a fun time.
Suddenly one player (seemingly new here, not seen him/her before) says....
"are you on drugs tikay? You are so dumb. Don't you know raising 5x is really really dumb?"
Bit of a debate then ensued, when he tried to convince me that there is ONLY ONE OPTIMAL RAISE SIZE in poker. 2.2x
He was serious, too. I tried to tell him about my cat. I skin it, regularly, but always different ways, just to mix it up a bit, to balance my cat skinning range, so to speak.
There is never a you must always in poker strategy.
Anyway Mr Ruby, you've started a useful debate now, & one or two have realised that these things are rarely as cut & dried as they may at first sight seem.
Take care now.