Cash Poker - Folding 2nd Nuts

Lambert180

In some spots, you should never ever do it, in others it can be quite easy (albeit painful) but how about this scenario...

You're in a single raised pot (raised by yourself) and you got 3 callers preflop. We have KJo

So we go to the flop 4way which is AAA and it get's checked round (the pot is about 15xBB)

The turn is a King so turn the 2nd nuts. Villian leads out 4way for full pot and it's on us.

Is there ever an arguement to fold here? If we call here then we have to call 100% of rivers obv.

Is this a scenario where we're only ever gonna be chopping or losing given the full pot bet 4way? Is he ever gonna do this with TT for instance know ing he can't really get called by anything worse?

Whatever your opinion is, why do u think it's the right one?

F_Ivanovic

On AAA I would def. consider folding since even though there are 4 aces on the board it's quite likely that one of them may be playing an ace. On other 3 of a kind boards, say TTTK and below then I don't think you can get away from a big FH unless a tight passive player pots twice or something/overbets

rancid

what about this one

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
a	Small blind		£0.25	£0.25	£57.26
rancid	Big blind		£0.50	£0.75	£57.57
	Your hole cards	A 8
BabyFace82	Fold
ASKFORDMND	Fold
bolly580	Fold
b	Raise		£1.00	£1.75	£41.46
a	Call		£0.75	£2.50	£56.51
rancid	Call		£0.50	£3.00	£57.07
Flop
		5 5 A
a	Check
rancid	Check
b	Check
Turn
		K
a	Bet		£2.25	£5.25	£54.26
rancid	Call		£2.25	£7.50	£54.82
b	Fold
River
		5
a	Check
rancid	Bet		£11.00	£18.50	£43.82
a	All-in		£54.26	£72.76	£0.00
rancid

FlashFlush

I'd fold in Lambert's scenario because at best your chopping a pot you've not put much into. Rancid I'd call yours, I can't see him checking the 5 there, he should be just pot betting or shoving knowing you're going to call with an A... Who knows though, we all play different!

Lambert180

It happened this morning exactly as above and I did fold... just wanted to see if I was being a massive nit or not.

EDIT: JJ has asked for the HH so when I finish my grind I'll try to find it, but a bit of a pain in the azz to find cos it was just a small pot and I'll have played 100s of hands that size this session

FlashFlush

Get this "Nit" expression out of your mind or you're just going to end up bleeding money away. It's all I keep seeing you mention lately. Big folds are vital, if you start thinking "Meh this hand's too good to fold" you'll start going downhill fast. That's what I did! I started to listen to people who were calling me a nit and it totally messed my game up. I've finally got over all that now, and play tight again like I used to, and shock horror, I'm winning regularly again!

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: Cash Poker - Folding 2nd Nuts:

I'd fold in Lambert's scenario because at best your chopping a pot you've not put much into. Rancid I'd call yours, I can't see him checking the 5 there, he should be just pot betting or shoving knowing you're going to call with an A... Who knows though, we all play different!
Posted by FlashFlush

Why should villain be potting with a 5 here? If he checks he knows hero will be betting an A whereas if he bets himself hero is only going to call with an A. So by c/r he can get more out of hero than by just betting.

Not sure why rancid overbets the river though. It's certainly not for value, so is it to fold out a split? If so, I don't think the sizing is big enough. When we do overbet and get shoved on it's a pretty horrible spot. Villain is obviously never bluffing (unless he's super sick) because he knows we won't be folding an A and could potentially have a 5 ourself. But is he really shoving with an A to try and fold out a chop? He could easily have a hand like AA or KK as well as a 5, so I think I'm probably folding. edit: nvm I didn't know the action pre. AA and KK is unlikely. I guess if it's an unknown you prob have to call because he might just be thinking any Ax is the nuts and with what we've invested, it's hard to fold.

rancid

In Response to Re: Cash Poker - Folding 2nd Nuts:

In Response to Re: Cash Poker - Folding 2nd Nuts : Why should villain be potting with a 5 here? If he checks he knows hero will be betting an A whereas if he bets himself hero is only going to call with an A. So by c/r he can get more out of hero than by just betting. Not sure why rancid overbets the river though. It's certainly not for value, so is it to fold out a split? If so, I don't think the sizing is big enough. When we do overbet and get shoved on it's a pretty horrible spot. Villain is obviously never bluffing (unless he's super sick) because he knows we won't be folding an A and could potentially have a 5 ourself. But is he really shoving with an A to try and fold out a chop? He could easily have a hand like AA or KK as well as a 5, so I think I'm probably folding. edit: nvm I didn't know the action pre. AA and KK is unlikely. I guess if it's an unknown you prob have to call because he might just be thinking any Ax is the nuts and with what we've invested, it's hard to fold.
Posted by F_Ivanovic

cough, ofc it's for value_vill bets K on turn_-_ all K's call yo!

Lambert180

Sigh remembered it slightly wrong.

It was a single raised pot but I iso'd 2 limpers, and it did get checked round then full potted on the turn but it was 3way not 4way

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
johnnyappl	Small blind		£0.20	£0.20	£33.52
TEAJ666	Big blind		£0.40	£0.60	£30.96
	Your hole cards	K J
b123n	Fold
ASKFORDMND	Call		£0.40	£1.00	£13.97
biscuitman	Call		£0.40	£1.40	£44.39
Lambert180	Raise		£2.00	£3.40	£95.08
johnnyappl	Call		£1.80	£5.20	£31.72
TEAJ666	Fold
ASKFORDMND	Call		£1.60	£6.80	£12.37
biscuitman	Fold
Flop
		A A A
johnnyappl	Check
ASKFORDMND	Check
Lambert180	Check
Turn
		K
johnnyappl	Bet		£6.80	£13.60	£24.92
ASKFORDMND	Fold
Lambert180	Fold
johnnyappl	Muck
johnnyappl	Win		£6.46		£31.38
johnnyappl	Return		£6.80	£0.34	£38.18

NColley

I doubt I'm folding, checked through on the flop so hes gonna stab quite a bit. Villains also not full stacked (so likely weaker player) he can show up with so many more bluffs/thin v bets then he can with Ax/ Kx

Lambert180

But does he really bluff/thin value bet full pot into 3 players? Like he's always gonna miles behind or he's getting folds so dunno why he'd full pot for any other reason than pure value.

Wouldn't he just C/C with say TT?

rancid

what % of the time does vill have worse/bluffs
what % of the time does vill have a K
what % of the  time does vill have an Ace

calculate

probs -EV to call

depends what % of your stack you have put in already but this spot is a fold


would be great if we could fold in game

NColley

In Response to Re: Cash Poker - Folding 2nd Nuts:

But does he really bluff/thin value bet full pot into 3 players? Like he's always gonna miles behind or he's getting folds so dunno why he'd full pot for any other reason than pure value. Wouldn't he just C/C with say TT?
Posted by Lambert180

Well we don't have that answer because its impossible for us to find the reasons why fish do what they do..

why do they click the pot button time after time? why do they min bet or min 3bet in spots that are bad? ect ect..

These aren't the spots that you need to put lots of time in analysing as they are relatively rare. Its not gonna be a long term mistake to call now and call the river unless you really have a concrete read on his pot bets after seeing weakness.

Lambert180

In Response to Re: Cash Poker - Folding 2nd Nuts:

what % of the time does vill have worse/bluffs what % of the time does vill have a K what % of the  time does vill have an Ace calculate probs -EV to call depends what % of your stack you have put in already but this spot is a fold would be great if we could fold in game
Posted by rancid

HH is above... I did

rancid

In Response to Re: Cash Poker - Folding 2nd Nuts:

In Response to Re: Cash Poker - Folding 2nd Nuts : HH is above... I did
Posted by Lambert180

cause your a nit

very hard to fold in game for a buy in as these spots hardly ever arise

plus it's gonna bug u 4ever if they actually had it or not - like this thread

GaryQQQ

I'm not folding here. Pot sized bet looks bluffy to me, an ace doesn't want folds.

Disclaimer; I don't play cash.

F_Ivanovic

@rancid: Well I doubt anyone good is calling with a K to an overbet. So unless you had a note saying they were a CS I'd much prefer a smaller bet for value.

And lambert, 3 way I don't think you can fold at least not on the turn. I just don't think the average random is going to be donk potting with an A here. Depends how long you've been playing with them though and what reads you have. If they've been at the table for a good while and they've been pretty uninvolved then I guess folding here would be alright. I'd probably call turn and re-eval river. They're probably not going to bluff twice so you've just got to decide how often they have a K vs an A if they bet again and if you're getting the odds to call!

Lambert180

But what I'm saying is, IF it's only Ax or Kx then it's -EV innit?

Like the dead money in the middle will cover any rake when I chop with Kx but that relies on him having Kx 100% of the time. If he has Ax even 10% then it's not +EV is it?

ACEGOONER

In Response to Re: Cash Poker - Folding 2nd Nuts:

But what I'm saying is, IF it's only Ax or Kx then it's -EV innit? Like the dead money in the middle will cover any rake when I chop with Kx but that relies on him having Kx 100% of the time. If he has Ax even 10% then it's not +EV is it?
Posted by Lambert180

Yes but you dont know 100% for sure its Ax or Kx, you're just trying to assign a range of which underpairs should also be considered. An inexperienced level 1 player might barrel the turn, with any pocket pair if they have decided that their fh is good enough. 

I'm definitely calling the turn, and re-evaluating on the river. A shove on the river leaves you in a spot but this scenario happens soo rarely dont beat yourself up about specific decisions. 

Flash Flush is right, dont let other players try to convince you that being nitty is bad (especially when they arent playing your levels). Unfortunately at lower stakes on sky tight is right, if you want to play poker this aint the site to do it !

rancid

In Response to Re: Cash Poker - Folding 2nd Nuts:

But what I'm saying is, IF it's only Ax or Kx then it's -EV innit? Like the dead money in the middle will cover any rake when I chop with Kx but that relies on him having Kx 100% of the time. If he has Ax even 10% then it's not +EV is it?
Posted by Lambert180

depend what % you think vill is bluffing/worse against % of k's and % of A's

only intrested in:

win 13.60
lose 6.80

---

if u call then work it out again for the turn

---

if you shove then .......................... ok good luck

CraigSG1

In Response to Re: Cash Poker - Folding 2nd Nuts:

I'm not folding here. Pot sized bet looks bluffy to me, an ace doesn't want folds. Disclaimer; I don't play cash.
Posted by GaryQQQ

+1 on this. The only time I would be worried about an A would be a river allin.