Situational question. did you have any history with this opponent? You seemed keen to play him post flop. Presumably you had used aggression+position to get him off hands before? Posted by Phantom66
I saw him opening quite often and so I decided I'd play against him in position. One thing nobody is taking into account is his opening range, he's raised from the CO so he's raising quite wide here especially with the initial limpet, it's just inviting someone to raise in position. Jacs is a good player and so I recognised this situation and flatted rather than to raise to 1.3k and induce him to shove on me.
In Response to Re: My Favourite hand of the night for being berated because of my play : He did not 3bet, he opened and I. Flatted. Posted by DoubleAAA
Sorry first 'open' was a limp.
Cold calling iso's with K6s this shallow is generally gonna be bad unless you're some kind of post flop beast. The rest of what I said still applies.
FWIW, you've touched on it yourself, if he's really opening that wide then why not just 3bet him? Most of the time you'll just take it down pre (which is good cos your hand is rubbish). Very few people are gonna 4bet shove as a bluff without some decent dynamic so we can 3bet/fold knowing it works a very % of the time and when we get 4bet we're crushed.
If he flats the 3bet which I doubt he will very often cos he's a decent player and won't be flatting too many 3bets OOP, then you're repping big, and have a much bigger pot to win when he misses the vast majority of the time. Plus you get to do all this without having to risk your whole stack.
You're so far wrong in your thinking DoubleAAA that I don't know where to begin. If you're seen to be shoving over c-bets with complete air then you'll soon find good players will adjust by:
a) c-betting less in spots where the only move by you is to shove (and only c-betting hands happy to call a shove)
b) calling off much lighter.
For example a player opens with a range of 88+, KJ+, AT+. Flop is T52. They decide to only c-bet with 88+, AT, and AQ/AK. They don't c-bet their KJ, KQs. You shove with K6 here and they snap you off with every single hand they c-bet. Does your shove really look profitable now?
OK if Jac had never played you before then your play may be profitable in a vacuum. But it certainly isn't profitable in the long run if you keep doing it.
Well, I have no friends, so no need to worry about me taking anyone's side. lol
I agree with people suggesting that your plan was not a good one and will not be profitable in the long run. I also think that your whole justification in this thread has been "Jac35 has KQ and therefore my play will result in..." but you have no idea that he doesn't have AA, KK, QQ JJ, KJ, etc. If he has one of those hands, it's not just "bad timing" to bluff a flop and get called, as you say, it's part of his range and part of the EV of the play.
We also need to examine whether shoving the flop is the best way to bluff anyway. Over Jac's bet of 750, we shove 6k to win 2.5k. Let's assume you do carry out your plan to shove on a QJ4 flop, or similar which we've missed. We need that bluff to get through two opponents more than 70% of the time to break even. On a flop like this, we're not likely to get it through that often because so many strong draws and strong made hands are likely.
So planning to shove any non-Ace flop is just not a good plan. We will get away with it more on dry flops like 923 or similar, but we have to bear in mind that we're not really representing any big hand when we do this. People will not believe that we'll make that shove with a set because we'd fold out too much of their range and we're unlikely to have AA, KK, QQ or AK having not 3-bet pre-flop. So we're basically trying to make out that we have JJ or TT and didn't 3-bet pre-flop but are now making the mistake of giving our opponent the chance to fold his AK, AQ, etc...
I'm afraid I don't think this was a good plan.
Moving on from that, we need to examine the logic of your shove. You say you think that a call of this shove with just KQ is questionable and presumably you think Jac isn't a bad player, so why on Earth are we shoving?
If we're not thinking that J6 is in Jac's range, then the best hand that we're currently beating is AA, AK is second and KQ is the third best hand we're beating. If we think our shove should get him to fold out all the hands we're beating up to the third best, the shove is terrible. We know he's calling us with all his better hands and we fold out most of his weaker ones. We're really only getting called by draws that have good equity against us, like QdTd, or hands that have us beat, if your ideas on Jac's calling range are correct.
As it happens, I think Jac is justified in making the call. If he has some reads on your play then he's definitely ahead of your range. If he doesn't have those reads it is much closer, but you do look like you're playing a draw a lot and he beats all the one-pair hands in your range. Unknown villain's are likely to 3-bet AK, KK and JJ pre-flop and unlikely to peel with J6 and K6. He's basically losing to 66 and KJ in the likely range of an unknown, beating all the one-pairs and in a good situation against the draws.
Even if I did like your pre-flop plan, I think you need to adjust it when you smash the flop like this. If you held the view that he would be folding his KQ hands, the shove was really bad. If you agree with me that he's likely to call with KQ and big draws, I still don't like the shove. We give him a great chance to get away from weaker Kings, QQ, Jacks, etc. without putting more money in the pot.
As for the intentions of this post, I'm going to take your word for it that you weren't intending to berate Jac and were just trying to defend yourself. I've never seen you abusing anyone before, so...
I will also say that I think it's very unlikely that Jac was intending to berate you, either. My experience with him would suggest that's out of character.
Hope to see some of you on the felt and I will say hi as per usual, and just think, now you guys know that I play K6s on the btn and my way of thinking, it shall certainly make for some interesting play. Somehow we have created a meta-tag game as now you guys will be wondering if im shoving light and if I'm flatting you light IP.
At the end of the day, it's only a game, a game that we all enjoy and is excellent to discuss.
On a side note to BorinLorner, you're correct I did not know he had KQ, I was just doing the maths using KQ as he knew what his hand was. His range is actually quite wide, like I had stated earlier.
Here is the actual opening range that I would put him on:
A2s+,A7o+, 22+ KTo+,JTs+,QJo+
21.3%
This would be the cbet range that I would put him on: 66,JJ-AA, AJo+,A2s+,QTo+,QTs+, 13.7%
Given the flop of Kd 5h Jd (I have changed the 6 for a 5 so it only gies me top pair) this makes me 53% vs his cbet range.
His calling range when we shove I would make it as follows: 55,JJ,KK+, KJo+,KJs+,QTs+ A2s+ 9.1%
So when he calls our flop shove we are 45% to win.
So to recap....
He cbets 64.3% of the time making the pot 2.5k When we shove 100% of the time he calls us 66.4% (9.1%/13.7%)
He checks flop, we bet, we take it down 35.7% of the time giving us +607 So he calls our shove 66%, so the times he folds 34% we win = +850 When he calls our shove we win the pot 45% of the time = +6165. When he calls our shove and wins 55% = -7535 (difference -1370)
1457-1370= +87chips.
So this is certainly not spewy and a long term losing play given those figures but If I have gone wrong anywhere with these calculations please let me know as I haven't had any sleep for the past 30hrs!
Thank you once again for taking the time to read through my thoughts whether it be right or wrong and adding your own thoughts. This is how we ALL improve.
Thanks for the insightful input guys. Hope to see some of you on the felt and I will say hi as per usual, and just think, now you guys know that I play K6s on the btn and my way of thinking, it shall certainly make for some interesting play. Somehow we have created a meta-tag game as now you guys will be wondering if im shoving light and if I'm flatting you light IP. At the end of the day, it's only a game, a game that we all enjoy and is excellent to discuss. On a side note to BorinLorner, you're correct I did not know he had KQ, I was just doing the maths using KQ as he knew what his hand was. His range is actually quite wide, like I had stated earlier. Here is the actual opening range that I would put him on: A2s+,A7o+, 22+ KTo+,JTs+,QJo+ 21.3% This would be the cbet range that I would put him on: 66,JJ-AA, AJo+,A2s+,QTo+,QTs+, 13.7% Given the flop of Kd 5h Jd (I have changed the 6 for a 5 so it only gies me top pair) this makes me 53% vs his cbet range. His calling range when we shove I would make it as follows: 55,JJ,KK+, KJo+,KJs+,QTs+ A2s+ 9.1% So when he calls our flop shove we are 45% to win. So to recap.... He cbets 64.3% of the time making the pot 2.5k When we shove 100% of the time he calls us 66.4% (9.1%/13.7%) He checks flop, we bet, we take it down 35.7% of the time giving us +607 So he calls our shove 66%, so the times he folds 34% we win = +850 When he calls our shove we win the pot 45% of the time = +6165. When he calls our shove and wins 55% = -7535 (difference -1370) 1457-1370= +87chips. So this is certainly not spewy and a long term losing play given those figures but If I have gone wrong anywhere with these calculations please let me know as I haven't had any sleep for the past 30hrs! Thank you once again for taking the time to read through my thoughts whether it be right or wrong and adding your own thoughts. This is how we ALL improve. Posted by DoubleAAA
I'm sure you factored all this into your thought process in the 15 seconds or so Sky gives you to make a decision.
Raise or fold pre all day long. Flatting out of that stack with such a marginal hand is poor, even with position, as we don't have a stack to play down the streets with our positional advantage.
Just got pretty lucky really, as you said yourself you stack off on a K high flop.
Jac35, you've always been a gent with me sir! I look forward to sharing a table again soon (assuming you read this!)
Edit- playing a little bit deeper than I realised. 3bet folding here if playing the hand.
In Response to Re: My Favourite hand of the night for being berated because of my play : I'm sure you factored all this into your thought process in the 15 seconds or so Sky gives you to make a decision. Raise or fold pre all day long. Flatting out of that stack with such a marginal hand is poor, even with position, as we don't have a stack to play down the streets with our positional advantage. Just got pretty lucky really, as you said yourself you stack off on a K high flop. Jac35, you've always been a gent with me sir! I look forward to sharing a table again soon (assuming you read this!) Edit- playing a little bit deeper than I realised. 3bet folding here if playing the hand. Posted by hhyftrftdr
No but I expect him to open with the top 25% of hands and have spent enough time with ranges etc to have a good grasp on what the top 25% is.
In Response to Re: My Favourite hand of the night for being berated because of my play : No but I expect him to open with the top 25% of hands and have spent enough time with ranges etc to have a good grasp on what the top 25% is. Posted by DoubleAAA
So you flat with a hand that is absolutely crushed by a decent chunk of that 25%?
And he's not opening, he's raising a limper. Which, in my opinion, makes it an even more clear cut 3bet or fold.
In Response to Re: My Favourite hand of the night for being berated because of my play : So you flat with a hand that is absolutely crushed by a decent chunk of that 25%? And he's not opening, he's raising a limper. Which, in my opinion, makes it an even more clear cut 3bet or fold. Posted by hhyftrftdr
You cant on one hand say that you plan on using position to bluff him off the pot, and then describe his call with top pair questionabl, reasoning that you're hardly going to shove eg QT. Dont make a ton of sense, dude.
Im sure you will fella. Peeps are sound here. Cheers, TEDDY Posted by TeddyBloat
Thanks Teddy. I have met some very friendly people on the tables and quite enjoy it to be honest. My error seems to have been posting a hand and leaving the alias of a popular forum member.
Was a joke mate. When I started here there wrre people who I was playing heads up who were willing to help me, and talk me through tough spots. Take em as you find, but most on here are gents. Jac especially. Like the way you analyse ranges btw. Look forward to your input. Tis always hard when you dont know the ettiquette / tone of a forum. It aint 2+2 here.
Was a joke mate. When I started here there wrre people who I was playing heads up who were willing to help me, and talk me through tough spots. Take em as you find, but most on here are gents. Jac especially. Like the way you analyse ranges btw. Look forward to your input. Tis always hard when you dont know the ettiquette / tone of a forum. It aint 2+2 here. Cheers, TEDDY Posted by TeddyBloat
When we're talking about whether your plan to call pre-flop and then shove any non-Ace high flop is profitable, we can't assume that we know the exact texture of that flop. So whether the pre-flop call is profitable, based on our plan for the flop, is purely down to whether this play is going to be profitable on random, non-Ace flops. The numbers for the specific KJ5 flop are not relevant to the EV of your pre-flop plan.
The numbers you've provided assume that you hit top-pair but that's not something you can assume pre-flop. So those numbers are only a justification for the pre-flop call on this particular flop, which is being results orientated.
Even if we take the numbers you've given, there are a few issues.
i) You don't seem to have accounted for Jac's KQ or KT type hands in any of your post-flop calculations. ii) You assume that Jac is bet-calling your shove on the flop with his bare nut-flush draws. He has nowhere near the correct odds to do that, and that's a problem for your logic on two fronts. I'll come onto that in a minute. iii) Your numbers assume that Jac is folding every time he checks the flop. He won't be, especially if he has any reads on you or if you actually do take the option of over-shoving. We have to make assumptions on people's reactions to our bets to make any EV calculations when we're talking about fold equity, etc., however, your overshove is so outside the norms that it would make Jac's response very difficult to predict.
On the issue of his nut-flush draws:
a) Jac is getting terrible odds to call with just Ace-high and a flush draw when you overshove. That means he's likely to fold all of these except perhaps AQ and AT because they have additional equity. This reduces significantly the 45% equity figure you're giving yourself against his bet-calling range. You're going to be crushed by his range if he's not calling with those hands.
b) If Jac is making this call with Adxd on this board, he can only justify it by believing that his Ace-high is actually ahead some of the time. So if he does make that call, that really undermines your logic for calling pre-flop to bluff any non-Ace flop. You can't have it both ways.
So the odds you're quoting aren't relevant to the EV of the pre-flop call, the assumptions you're making on the flop probably aren't right, and you're not including some of his range in your calculations.
Moreover you need to examine your logic for not adjusting your play based on the texture of the flop. If we accept your calculations on the flop - which I don't think we should - we have to ask if shoving's the best thing to do.
We can say that we're 53% against the range that Jac c-bets on the flop, so calling with top pair is definitely very profitable, given pot odds. However, we feel that if we shove, we can only be called by a range that is a 55% favourite against us. That means shoving is not profitable.
We know we're putting that extra money in when we can only be called by a range that beats us. We force him to fold all the hands that we are beating which he was putting more money in with, and only call that extra 5k with hands that beat us.
We need to work out the EV of raising as an entirely separate bet to the call.
In the unlikely situation that we could find a way to justify as profitable putting those extra chips in, we would still need to find a way of defending it as being more +EV than the alternatives. That's not going to happen because we'd need Jac to be calling with a whole bunch of hands we're ahead of and, if he does do that, it undermines our argument for the pre-flop play.
In Response to Re: My Favourite hand of the night for being berated because of my play : He did not know that I would call him that loose as he had not seen me show down any weak hands. I did not call to hit 2 pair, that was just lucky. If we hit the K top pair then I'm going with the hand as that was what I had decided pf. Any A lands then I'm giving up so if it's K high I'm hoping he doesn't have Ak, KQ, if so then I'm out, but I would expect a shove to fold out KJ KQ and all lower pairs. I'm shoving all non A flops with a face card and floating flop to shove all non A turns. Possibly it's a call but to berate my play just showed a lack of understanding upon his part of what I set out to achieve when playing the hand. Does my plan make sense? Posted by DoubleAAA
Comments
Cold calling iso's with K6s this shallow is generally gonna be bad unless you're some kind of post flop beast. The rest of what I said still applies.
If he flats the 3bet which I doubt he will very often cos he's a decent player and won't be flatting too many 3bets OOP, then you're repping big, and have a much bigger pot to win when he misses the vast majority of the time. Plus you get to do all this without having to risk your whole stack.
I agree with people suggesting that your plan was not a good one and will not be profitable in the long run. I also think that your whole justification in this thread has been "Jac35 has KQ and therefore my play will result in..." but you have no idea that he doesn't have AA, KK, QQ JJ, KJ, etc. If he has one of those hands, it's not just "bad timing" to bluff a flop and get called, as you say, it's part of his range and part of the EV of the play.
We also need to examine whether shoving the flop is the best way to bluff anyway. Over Jac's bet of 750, we shove 6k to win 2.5k. Let's assume you do carry out your plan to shove on a QJ4 flop, or similar which we've missed. We need that bluff to get through two opponents more than 70% of the time to break even. On a flop like this, we're not likely to get it through that often because so many strong draws and strong made hands are likely.
So planning to shove any non-Ace flop is just not a good plan. We will get away with it more on dry flops like 923 or similar, but we have to bear in mind that we're not really representing any big hand when we do this. People will not believe that we'll make that shove with a set because we'd fold out too much of their range and we're unlikely to have AA, KK, QQ or AK having not 3-bet pre-flop. So we're basically trying to make out that we have JJ or TT and didn't 3-bet pre-flop but are now making the mistake of giving our opponent the chance to fold his AK, AQ, etc...
I'm afraid I don't think this was a good plan.
Moving on from that, we need to examine the logic of your shove. You say you think that a call of this shove with just KQ is questionable and presumably you think Jac isn't a bad player, so why on Earth are we shoving?
If we're not thinking that J6 is in Jac's range, then the best hand that we're currently beating is AA, AK is second and KQ is the third best hand we're beating. If we think our shove should get him to fold out all the hands we're beating up to the third best, the shove is terrible. We know he's calling us with all his better hands and we fold out most of his weaker ones. We're really only getting called by draws that have good equity against us, like QdTd, or hands that have us beat, if your ideas on Jac's calling range are correct.
As it happens, I think Jac is justified in making the call. If he has some reads on your play then he's definitely ahead of your range. If he doesn't have those reads it is much closer, but you do look like you're playing a draw a lot and he beats all the one-pair hands in your range. Unknown villain's are likely to 3-bet AK, KK and JJ pre-flop and unlikely to peel with J6 and K6. He's basically losing to 66 and KJ in the likely range of an unknown, beating all the one-pairs and in a good situation against the draws.
Even if I did like your pre-flop plan, I think you need to adjust it when you smash the flop like this. If you held the view that he would be folding his KQ hands, the shove was really bad. If you agree with me that he's likely to call with KQ and big draws, I still don't like the shove. We give him a great chance to get away from weaker Kings, QQ, Jacks, etc. without putting more money in the pot.
As for the intentions of this post, I'm going to take your word for it that you weren't intending to berate Jac and were just trying to defend yourself. I've never seen you abusing anyone before, so...
I will also say that I think it's very unlikely that Jac was intending to berate you, either. My experience with him would suggest that's out of character.
Hope to see some of you on the felt and I will say hi as per usual, and just think, now you guys know that I play K6s on the btn and my way of thinking, it shall certainly make for some interesting play. Somehow we have created a meta-tag game as now you guys will be wondering if im shoving light and if I'm flatting you light IP.
At the end of the day, it's only a game, a game that we all enjoy and is excellent to discuss.
On a side note to BorinLorner, you're correct I did not know he had KQ, I was just doing the maths using KQ as he knew what his hand was. His range is actually quite wide, like I had stated earlier.
Here is the actual opening range that I would put him on:
A2s+,A7o+,
22+
KTo+,JTs+,QJo+
21.3%
This would be the cbet range that I would put him on:
66,JJ-AA,
AJo+,A2s+,QTo+,QTs+,
13.7%
Given the flop of Kd 5h Jd (I have changed the 6 for a 5 so it only gies me top pair) this makes me 53% vs his cbet range.
His calling range when we shove I would make it as follows:
55,JJ,KK+,
KJo+,KJs+,QTs+
A2s+
9.1%
So when he calls our flop shove we are 45% to win.
So to recap....
He cbets 64.3% of the time making the pot 2.5k
When we shove 100% of the time he calls us 66.4% (9.1%/13.7%)
He checks flop, we bet, we take it down 35.7% of the time giving us +607
So he calls our shove 66%, so the times he folds 34% we win = +850
When he calls our shove we win the pot 45% of the time = +6165.
When he calls our shove and wins 55% = -7535 (difference -1370)
1457-1370= +87chips.
So this is certainly not spewy and a long term losing play given those figures but If I have gone wrong anywhere with these calculations please let me know as I haven't had any sleep for the past 30hrs!
Thank you once again for taking the time to read through my thoughts whether it be right or wrong and adding your own thoughts. This is how we ALL improve.
The numbers you've provided assume that you hit top-pair but that's not something you can assume pre-flop. So those numbers are only a justification for the pre-flop call on this particular flop, which is being results orientated.
Even if we take the numbers you've given, there are a few issues.
i) You don't seem to have accounted for Jac's KQ or KT type hands in any of your post-flop calculations.
ii) You assume that Jac is bet-calling your shove on the flop with his bare nut-flush draws. He has nowhere near the correct odds to do that, and that's a problem for your logic on two fronts. I'll come onto that in a minute.
iii) Your numbers assume that Jac is folding every time he checks the flop. He won't be, especially if he has any reads on you or if you actually do take the option of over-shoving. We have to make assumptions on people's reactions to our bets to make any EV calculations when we're talking about fold equity, etc., however, your overshove is so outside the norms that it would make Jac's response very difficult to predict.
On the issue of his nut-flush draws:
a) Jac is getting terrible odds to call with just Ace-high and a flush draw when you overshove. That means he's likely to fold all of these except perhaps AQ and AT because they have additional equity. This reduces significantly the 45% equity figure you're giving yourself against his bet-calling range. You're going to be crushed by his range if he's not calling with those hands.
b) If Jac is making this call with Adxd on this board, he can only justify it by believing that his Ace-high is actually ahead some of the time. So if he does make that call, that really undermines your logic for calling pre-flop to bluff any non-Ace flop. You can't have it both ways.
So the odds you're quoting aren't relevant to the EV of the pre-flop call, the assumptions you're making on the flop probably aren't right, and you're not including some of his range in your calculations.
Moreover you need to examine your logic for not adjusting your play based on the texture of the flop. If we accept your calculations on the flop - which I don't think we should - we have to ask if shoving's the best thing to do.
We can say that we're 53% against the range that Jac c-bets on the flop, so calling with top pair is definitely very profitable, given pot odds. However, we feel that if we shove, we can only be called by a range that is a 55% favourite against us. That means shoving is not profitable.
We know we're putting that extra money in when we can only be called by a range that beats us. We force him to fold all the hands that we are beating which he was putting more money in with, and only call that extra 5k with hands that beat us.
We need to work out the EV of raising as an entirely separate bet to the call.
In the unlikely situation that we could find a way to justify as profitable putting those extra chips in, we would still need to find a way of defending it as being more +EV than the alternatives. That's not going to happen because we'd need Jac to be calling with a whole bunch of hands we're ahead of and, if he does do that, it undermines our argument for the pre-flop play.
All of the above is terrible