NL20 Cash hand

simonnatur

In each of the following scenarios, what's your opinion of betting the turn and should we call the shove?

Our hole cards:

1) AcAd

2) JsJc

PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceDR_BOBSmall blind £0.10£0.10£6.16beaubelle6Big blind £0.20£0.30£4.84The_ChrisBig blind £0.20£0.50£5.80 Your hole cards**   nemo8967Fold    xxRaise £0.60£1.10£27.73The_ChrisFold    simonnaturRaise £2.20£3.30£20.62DR_BOBFold    beaubelle6Fold    xxCall £1.60£4.90£26.13Flop  410J   xxCheck    simonnaturBet £3.40£8.30£17.22xxCall £3.40£11.70£22.73Turn  5   xxCheck    simonnaturBet £5.85£17.55£11.37xxAll-in £22.73£40.28£0.0

a00rock

With JJ Im calling here even if oppo has flush we still have 10 outs. With AA sigh fold. Fine with half pot turn bet in both maybe just a little bit bigger say £6.85.

Lambert180

As above, think we deffo have to fold AcAd here readless.

JJ I'm probably calling and hating life cos it looks so much like we're behind and we don't have the price to try to hit a FH/quads.

rancid

fold both


argument for calling w/JJ if vill has set/2 prs or air enough of the time

F_Ivanovic

Folding JJ would be insanely bad without being 99% certain opponent has a flush. We need about 25% to call and vs a flush have 22.73%. If opponent has a single non-flush hand we easily make up that 2.3% equity to make it a call. And I'm often calling this and perfectly happy about doing so!

Rancid I don't believe you are ever folding JJ here. I need to start shipping turns in 3-bet pots that bring a flush. Seems like a super profitable thing to do...

Oh yeah AA is a sigh fold. With the Ah as well would be villain dependant. 16% against made flush and funnily have 22.73% against a set. But vs 2 pair we have 36.36% and we dominate all pair + flush draw hands. So I still think we need a pretty good read to fold AA with the Ah.

rancid

^ see my comment for argument for calling when ivan shoves with worse


tbh Ivan you ain't got the game to shove this turn with worse

NColley

I prob check back turn with the AA and make a river decision based on what villain does, as played... v easy/standard fold imo. Lose to 44/JJ/TT/JT and ofc whatever hearts he peels pre. Can't see many hands he'd do this for value with that you beat.. QhQx potentially and we don't even have the Ah blocker.

The JJ is tougher but never folding. Even though he can't have JT anymore we still beat more combos of hands and have outs when we get it in behind.

rancid

depends what combos we put in villians range

we are probably flipping with 18% equity when we are facing flushes

not sure if sets shove this turn so..pretty sure they have flushes the most...folding is no problem

TommyD

Readless I would b/f AA no heart.  Would make me grumpy.

Only folding JJ if along with the shove a gun comes out of the screen and fires into my head.  Twice.

With top set we still beat plenty which may shove here, have crazy good odds and still have ways out of it.

As always if you see a showdown, make a note.  Readless sucks if you're playing cash, so many more regs and semi regs than tourneys.

TommyD

Also your bet sizing on the turn pretty much says 'I have no flush' unless you balance this out.  With stack sizes behind c/c turn to c/f river might be better.

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: NL20 Cash hand:

Also your bet sizing on the turn pretty much says 'I have no flush' unless you balance this out.  With stack sizes behind c/c turn to c/f river might be better.
Posted by TommyD

We half pot turn leaving £11 behind OTR into £20 or so? Pretty sure I would make a similar bet size with a flush... have no problem getting it in on the river. Really don't like c/c with JJ. We have a strong hand still ahead of villains range at this point. Why give a free card?

The_Don90

In Response to Re: NL20 Cash hand:

Readless I would b/f AA no heart.  Would make me grumpy. Only folding JJ if along with the shove a gun comes out of the screen and fires into my head.  Twice. With top set we still beat plenty which may shove here, have crazy good odds and still have ways out of it. As always if you see a showdown, make a note.  Readless sucks if you're playing cash, so many more regs and semi regs than tourneys.
Posted by TommyD

Given the rep of certain people surely theres some villians you would fold to tommy? Not asking for names, and obv thats with reads. Or are you still calling? 

rancid

If they ain't got the flush 95% of the time here at nl20 I'll give you the money myself

looks like and smells like a flush

what 1 heart hands get to turn ?

i think your all drinking far too much alcohol

TommyD

In Response to Re: NL20 Cash hand:

In Response to Re: NL20 Cash hand : Given the rep of certain people surely theres some villians you would fold to tommy? Not asking for names, and obv thats with reads. Or are you still calling? 
Posted by The_Don90

Even the people you talk about Don can surprise you.  Topest set on the turn?  I'm quite relaxed about getting it in.

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: NL20 Cash hand:

If they ain't got the flush 95% of the time here at nl20 I'll give you the money myself looks like and smells like a flush what 1 heart hands get to turn ? i think your all drinking far too much alcohol
Posted by rancid

So you are villain in this hand and you have AhAx or a worse set here. How do you play your hand...In particular the sets, are you really just flatting turn given that any heart OTR is going to kill your action? I seem to recall you saying a while back "you have the best hand now, so get it in" - well a set OTT is going to be the best so often, surely you have to get it in?

95% is just over-exagerrating. I'm sure you've probably called this and more than often been up against a flush... but that's not 95%. Even if 80% of the time we're up against a flush and 20% they have TT then folding would be a huge mistake. I'm pretty sure that even if they have a flush 95% of the time then folding is a mistake. They need to have it 99% for folding to be correct.

Slipwater

For what it's worth, I am absolutely never folding top set on this four card board. I recognise a flush is possible, but I'm still going with it. Top set is rare, and I ain't giving it up just because he may have two hearts in his hand.

To be honest, the all-in move is exactly the kind of thing someone who doesn't have a heart does, in order to push someone else off. I've done it myself

TommyD

I think this spot is much more interesting with the AA no heart scenario than the JJ one which for me is a bet/call on the turn.  In the AA one we don't have the nut blocker.  Which in one way sucks as we're not drawing to the nut flush if behind.  However this opens up plenty of AhX hands for the villain.  Now they may already have the nuts here, or they may be jamming with an AhX hand.  Did they float us with the intention to jam any heart as they hold the nut blocker?  Have they got like AhTx and have turned it into a bluff?  Have they got AhX with a pair and got excited with the turn and decided to jam?  Are they merging AhJ for value and as a semi bluff?  Do we assume they are playing optimally as this is readless and in an effective vacuum?

Also back to Ivan's post on my bet sizing comment, you're quite right, not sure where I was going with that post now I read it again.  I think it's along the lines of when we go heavy on the flop but use the preset half pot button on the turn it really polarises our happiness with said turn card.  But with how shallow we are here compared to the pot it's not really a valid point in this instance.

TommyD

We're around £11 to win around £40 on the end.  Starting to think AA is a call now.  Yes I'm a station.  However we don't have to be right that often here.  Add in a little get there v some 2pair and set hands.  Gotta be close.

rancid

In Response to Re: NL20 Cash hand:

In Response to Re: NL20 Cash hand : So you are villain in this hand and you have AhAx or a worse set here. How do you play your hand...In particular the sets, are you really just flatting turn given that any heart OTR is going to kill your action? I seem to recall you saying a while back "you have the best hand now, so get it in" - well a set OTT is going to be the best so often, surely you have to get it in? 95% is just over-exagerrating. I'm sure you've probably called this and more than often been up against a flush... but that's not 95%. Even if 80% of the time we're up against a flush and 20% they have TT then folding would be a huge mistake. I'm pretty sure that even if they have a flush 95% of the time then folding is a mistake. They need to have it 99% for folding to be correct.
Posted by F_Ivanovic

Yeah, ok maybe I don't fold turn -

think it's worth looking at range pre and what combos they get to turn with - think it's pretty close - just depends on what we think they flat with pre
think it's all about the 18% get there equity

rancid

In Response to Re: NL20 Cash hand:

We're around £11 to win around £40 on the end.  Starting to think AA is a call now.  Yes I'm a station.  However we don't have to be right that often here.  Add in a little get there v some 2pair and set hands.  Gotta be close.
Posted by TommyD

fink it's 16.88 to win 40.28

unless I am reading it backwards

TommyD

We only have like £11 behind, they cover us.  So it's around 11 to win 35ish