In Response to Re: MTT - DEFENDING YOU'RE BIG BLIND : Need to make some assumptions: You have AJ The raise is to 3BB You have 15 BB You flat and check/fold if you miss If you hit, you double up your whole stack If you shove, 2/3rds of the time your shove gets through AJ smashes the range of the raiser and, to keep the sums easy, is 66% against the range. I think these are mostly reasonable assumptions but if you vary the assumptions you vary the answer. Scenario 1 – you flat 66% you miss the flop, - 1.33BB 22% you hit the flop, +3.6BB 11% you hit and still lose, -1.65BB Flatting is + 0.62 Scenario 2 – you re-shove 66% the re-shove gets through, +4.5BB 22% you are called and still win, +3.6BB 11% you are called and lose, – 1.65BB Re-shoving is + 6.15 Posted by BigBluster
Also, when re reshove and get called are we not getting a full double up or going home? When we flat are we not calling 2bb additional?
I think it's also important to understand table positions - in the AJd hand especially. Once he opens from utg+1 it's going to be very hard for us to get a shove for 14/15bbs through and if we do it's going to be against a hand that we crush (and want to keep in the hand by peeling). These scenarios are complicated when one or two others peel, giving us a much better situation to squeeze shove.
Just generally tournament poker - especially in the later stages - has become a far more shortstacked game. Good players are far more capable of playing 10-30bb poker and for that reason peeling the other hands (QJo, J9c) are also perfectly fine imo. I'd just experiment with different styles, find one that works better for you. I quite like peeling a lot but that's because I'm big headed and I think I've got an edge over most players.
I think it's also important to understand table positions - in the AJd hand especially. Once he opens from utg+1 it's going to be very hard for us to get a shove for 14/15bbs through and if we do it's going to be against a hand that we crush (and want to keep in the hand by peeling). These scenarios are complicated when one or two others peel, giving us a much better situation to squeeze shove. Just generally tournament poker - especially in the later stages - has become a far more shortstacked game. Good players are far more capable of playing 10-30bb poker and for that reason peeling the other hands (QJo, J9c) are also perfectly fine imo. I'd just experiment with different styles, find one that works better for you. I quite like peeling a lot but that's because I'm big headed and I think I've got an edge over most players. Posted by pryce6
In Response to Re: MTT - DEFENDING YOU'RE BIG BLIND : Cant spend ages on this right now but how often in 2014 is someone 3x raising? This completely changes the scenario/maths of the situation and will lead to shoving a wider range being more profitable. Although if they are 3x raising it opens a large number of other questions about our opponent. At first glance, I disagree with a lot of your %s but haven't gone through them and don't have maths to back it up right now. When we flat and hit our opponent is presumably c betting and I don't think you have factored this in. You also don't include when we get a full double by flatting the top of our range and them stacking off with a dominated hand. Posted by MattBates
Matt, it's all about the assumptions. If you assume that the villain always has AA and will always call you down, then obviously re-shoving is a bad play mathematically.
The mathematics is unarguable - it's mathematics, it's a fact. The assumptions are debateable. Is it a reasonable assumption that when you hit the flop you will always double up? Maybe not. Is AJ always going to be smashing the range? Maybe not. Overall, could you describe the assumptions I made as reasonable?
And how about laddering? What are 3 or 4 BBs EV when laddering one place means £300? To **** with scenarios and assumptions - this is hard cash we're talking about!
Going back to the original question. Is AJ and 15BB a call or a shove? On most assumptions, it is a clear shove. And it's not even close.
I think the key thing here is what your goal is with the hand.
If your goal is to make them fold a majority of a wide range then shoving is clearly a bad move, plenty of tight players are going to be doing this and folding their small pps weak ax and Broadway's leaving only dominating hands calling. If this is then case shoving ajs isn't going to be the best play, it's going to be better to flat and check shove flops u hit, flops u draw well on and flops that only hit a small part of their range such q high rainbow flops. Leave your shoving bluff range for suited junk with blockers like ace rag suited and kx suited that plays bad post flop.
If you think their goin to call a wide range with raggy aces and junk Broadway's then shoving is probably going to be better ev as your going to be dominating a lot. If its a looser player that's going to get these types of hands in pre calling isn't going to pan out so well as they will be more willing to call a shove on the flop with an underpair and weak draws etc. your preflop should then consist of strong hands that dominate their range e.g, a10s, ajo, kqs, 88+.
Unfortunately these days the majority of players lean towards the tighter side.
Comments
... and big headed!