A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do!

BigBluster

Scenario:

Bounty Hunter MTT, 6 max, all players have 2000 chips, blinds are 20/40, hero is UTG with QdQh

Hero raises to 140, gets 4 callers (quite common in BHs) {size of PF raise is for another discussion). BB folds.

740 in pot, hero's stack is 1860

Flop is Qs5d7d

This is the question. What is the correct amount to bet here?

Checking and potentially giving a free card is horrible. So a bet is a must. But how much?

We're immensely strong, and have redraws to a boat. But we also know that some of these players will have 68, 46 or any two diamonds (or maybe even chasing bounties with 34, 89 etc). These are the kind of hands that BH players love to see flops with and as there are four of them, at least one, maybe two of them must be drawing.

 

So how much to bet?

a) If we shove, we're losing value with our top set. They will/should all fold. That can't be right. It's also a scared play.

b) If we bet ¾ pot, the villains are looking at a 1240 pot with their flush/straight draw with only 485 to add in, so a call is almost mandatory.

c) Suppose we bet 1,000 of our 1,860 stack. The pot is now 1,740 and any straight or flush draws do not theoretically have the odds to draw (though they often will! Many BH players can never lay down a flush draw), so 1,000 seems the 'correct' bet. But this overbet doesn't really exist - there is really no difference between this bet and the shove as we're never folding our set to someone coming over the top. Basically, we're losing value, just as if we'd shoved.

 

So what is the correct thing to do? I genuinely don't know!

seppe

Shove

BigBluster

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do!:

Shove
Posted by seppe

Shove 1860 into a 740 pot with top set?

Maybe that's the answer (I don't know, hence the question!) but it just doesn't feel right. We hit top set and play scared, extracting no value. Doesn't feel right.

seppe

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do!:

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do! : Shove 1860 into a 740 pot with top set? Maybe that's the answer (I don't know, hence the question!) but it just doesn't feel right. We hit top set and play scared, extracting no value. Doesn't feel right.
Posted by BigBluster

sorry didnt read it properly, i thought some1 had bet 740 lol.

as he was the aggressor pre hes got to continue his story & bet aound 500/550

BigBluster

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do!:

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do! : sorry didnt read it properly, i thought some1 had bet 740 lol. as he was the aggressor pre hes got to continue his story & bet aound 500/550
Posted by seppe

Thanks for the response and on many levels your advice makes sense. But by betting 500/550 then surely youre' giving all the draws the odds to hit? 

Lambert180

deffo not shoving or over betting. I'd go about 500-550. No way you can give loose players such a narrow range of just hands with decent equity. Could just as easy be against, AJo, T8hh, A3o and KTo or a million other combos that are in awful shape

if they can have any two diamonds, then they have any two hearts/spades/clubs 3x as often

seppe

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do!:

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do! : Thanks for the response and on many levels your advice makes sense. But by betting 500/550 then surely youre' giving all the draws the odds to hit? 
Posted by BigBluster

over betting with such a strong hand would be really bad, you dont want folds here.

Lambert180

Fwiw, if we bet 550, they gotta call 550 to win 1290, so they need about 42% equity. There are VERY few hands (in fact, none that I can think of) that have a 42% of catching us on the next card. Even 68dd, the strongest possible hand we don't wanna see has 8 diamonds + 8 straight outs, and even that doesn't actually have the right price to call and outdraw us.

hhyftrftdr

Bet about 425/50 and give someone the opportunity to go over the top.

BigBluster

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do!:

Fwiw, if we bet 550, they gotta call 550 to win 1290, so they need about 42% equity. There are VERY few hands (in fact, none that I can think of) that have a 42% of catching us on the next card. Even 68dd, the strongest possible hand we don't wanna see has 8 diamonds + 8 straight outs, and even that doesn't actually have the right price to call and outdraw us.
Posted by Lambert180

Sorry mate, but your sums are incorrect  They need to call 550 to take down 1840 (1290+550) so statistically the decision is clear with any str8 or flush draw. If there are any implied odds then the play is unequivocal. 

Gosh, I hate to be critical. But I can't see any bet that doesn't have flaws!

{6d8d is actually even money against us. We can't get them off}.

jakally

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do!:

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do! : Sorry mate, but your sums are incorrect  They need to call 550 to take down 1840 (1290+550) so statistically the decision is clear with any str8 or flush draw. If there are any implied odds then the play is unequivocal.  Gosh, I hate to be critical. But I can't see any bet that doesn't have flaws! {6d8d is actually even money against us. We can't get them off}.
Posted by BigBluster

You have added the 550 call into the pot which it isn't (yet). Lambert s sums are correct.

When the pot is this big, strong draws are often going to get it in anyway. We are more interested in getting a bet from weak draws or 1 pair hands, so would be more than happy betting just over 400.

77Chris91

450...

TeddyBloat

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do!:

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do! : You have added the 550 call into the pot which it isn't (yet). Lambert s sums are correct. When the pot is this big, strong draws are often going to get it in anyway. We are more interested in getting a bet from weak draws or 1 pair hands, so would be more than happy betting just over 400.
Posted by jakally

To get the equity needed to call in % you do need to add the call to the pot, as that is the pot you will be scooping.

C/P+C = E

C = amount needed to call

P =  current size of pot

E = equity needed to break even on call

We cant price draws out as even if we shove each call lays a much better price for the next man to act.

We dont want to price everyone out, nor with four to act can we. Bet pot, charge each man a healthy price and jam blank turns. We are equally as likely to boat up as anyone is to hit their draw. Overbetting the pot wouldnt be bad either. Reckon we'd be priced in on the turn even if a diamond hits, so meh.

jdsallstar

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do!:

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do! : To get the equity needed to call in % you do need to add the call to the pot, as that is the pot you will be scooping. C/P+C = E C = amount needed to call P =  current size of pot E = equity needed to break even on call We cant price draws out as even if we shove each call lays a much better price for the next man to act. We dont want to price everyone out, nor with four to act can we. Bet pot, charge each man a healthy price and jam blank turns. We are equally as likely to boat up as anyone is to hit their draw. Overbetting the pot wouldnt be bad either. Reckon we'd be priced in on the turn even if a diamond hits, so meh.
Posted by TeddyBloat

Is this right?! I was always told we don't add our call to the pot when calculating equity.

I.e. preflop pot  740
      Flop bet      500
      Total Pot    1240

Cost for us to call 500

Therefore we need 40% equity (500/1240)

If we use your formula it's 500/1740 = 28%.

Actually I'm 99% certain we don't include our call when calculating equity needed otherwise we're giving ourselves odds to win our own money.  I'm happy to be corrected though.

jakally

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do!:

Fwiw, if we bet 550, they gotta call 550 to win 1290
Posted by Lambert180

Yeah, I'm a stupid.

I was agreeing with this bit and skim read the rest. 

More to the point, it's pretty important not to get obsessed with 'pricing out draws'. (Although we obviously don't want to be making stupid small bets in multi-way pots). 

In this spot, with the pot big in relation to stacks, people are going with sets, two pairs, King high/ace high flush draws, straight flush draws, up and down straight draws  etc..., and there are no prizes for getting a bet size that results in players getting their stacks in with these. 

Open jamming the flop, and getting called by middle set doesn't make it a good bet sizing.

The problem is, more often that not, noone is going to have any of these hands.

We want to get people calling, or raising, with 1 pair, gutshots etc..., and to be choosing bet sizes that get some value from these. 

GaryQQQ

So nobody is gonna check/raise then?

I bet nothing. The flop isn't that scary. Decent draws, lower sets or somebody holding the other queen will start the betting for you and make it much easier to get stacks in.

TeddyBloat

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do!:

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do! : Is this right?! I was always told we don't add our call to the pot when calculating equity. I.e. preflop pot  740       Flop bet       500       Total Pot    1240 Cost for us to call 500 Therefore we need 40% equity (500/1240) If we use your formula it's 500/1740 = 28%. Actually I'm 99% certain we don't include our call when calculating equity needed otherwise we're giving ourselves odds to win our own money.  I'm happy to be corrected though.
Posted by jdsallstar

You do need to take the final size of the pot.

It is 28% to hit the next card.

A flush will hit on the next card about 20% of the time.

If the 500 bet was allin then it would require a 28% chance of hitting turn or river, which is a great price for any reasonable draw.

But yah, costof call divided by pot after you call = odds laid in %

Note when bluffing you can use the same formula to work out how often your bluff needs to work.

Bluff size divided by size of pot after you bet = how often bluff needs to work in %

Lambert180

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do!:

So nobody is gonna check/raise then? I bet nothing. The flop isn't that scary. Decent draws or lower sets will start the betting for you and make it much easier to get stacks in.
Posted by GaryQQQ

Too much chance of it getting check through for me and I don't like check/raising in general when we're the preflop aggressor.

jdsallstar

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do!:

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do! : You do need to take the final size of the pot. It is 28% to hit the next card. A flush will hit on the next card about 20% of the time. If the 500 bet was allin then it would require a 28% chance of hitting turn or river, which is a great price for any reasonable draw. But yah, costof call divided by pot after you call = odds laid in % Note when bluffing you can use the same formula to work out how often your bluff needs to work. Bluff size divided by size of pot after you bet = how often bluff needs to work in %
Posted by TeddyBloat

I stand corrected. I calculate pot odds/equity using ratio's but never realised %'s were done different. Now I think about it, it makes perfect sense lol.

77Chris91

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do!:

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do! : Too much chance of it getting check through for me and I don't like check/raising in general when we're the preflop aggressor.
Posted by Lambert180

It may have some merit... Gd players will recognise that were never gonna be leading into 4 players on this board without the goods here. As it's a bounty hunter when we c/r all in here were gonna get looked up by any flush draw/any Queen.

I think on balance betting is slightly better but c/ring isn't bad imo.

mugsy78

lol