In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do! : Sorry mate, but your sums are incorrect They need to call 550 to take down 1840 (1290+550) so statistically the decision is clear with any str8 or flush draw. If there are any implied odds then the play is unequivocal. Gosh, I hate to be critical. But I can't see any bet that doesn't have flaws! {6d8d is actually even money against us. We can't get them off}. Posted by BigBluster
They are only 1/1 if it goes to showdown on the flop.....ie seeing 2 more cards. We're talking about odds to hit draw on turn only no?
In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do! : I saw Posted by Lambert180
too douchy and too wrong.
If it's a 50% pot bet opponent will only need 25% equity to break even as hes getting 3/1. IF it's a pot bet opponant will only need 33% equity to break even as hes getting 2/1. So betting 550 into 1290 he'll be getting odds of 5/2 so he need approx 29% equity to break even.
Odds of hitting a straight draw or flush on turn are approx 20% so a 60-70% bet looks good here.
Thats better, with the help of dueces cracked poster.
For this it really depends on how you read the table. If you have an aggressive so and so on the button who will take checking as a sign of weakness then I don't mind checking here. If it gets through, re assess, readless, bet 450-500 as everyone else is suggesting and jam most turns
meh I posted a long reply and deleted it because I thought I was wrong about the pot odds bit (bit stupid really cause rest of post was fine) but now I'm not sure again!! I don't get why you don't add your call to the pot size? If a pot is 750 and someone bets 500 you are calling 500 to win a total pot of 1750. I don't see why you would ignore your bet and only include what's currently in the pot. Can't think about it now busy playing but will have a look later to see if anyone's posted anything helpful explaining that!
meh I posted a long reply and deleted it because I thought I was wrong about the pot odds bit (bit stupid really cause rest of post was fine) but now I'm not sure again!! I don't get why you don't add your call to the pot size? If a pot is 750 and someone bets 500 you are calling 500 to win a total pot of 1750. I don't see why you would ignore your bet and only include what's currently in the pot. Can't think about it now busy playing but will have a look later to see if anyone's posted anything helpful explaining that! Posted by F_Ivanovic
We are not calling 500 to win 1750. We are investing 500 to win 1290. The confusion starts because players are confusing pot odds we are getting to the equity needed to break even on the call.
So 550/1290=42 are actually pot odds( approx get 2.5 42's into 100) so pot odds are approx 5/2.
To Calculate our equity we add on the amount to call +pot then divide amount to call with so 550/1740=28%.
I read your post before it wasdeleted and it was pretty solid. I made the same mistake as others.
Also knowing what equity we need to break even on our bet to what equity we need when calling is slighty different.
IE if we bet 100 into a 200 pot than we need 33% equity to break even on the bet( not counting our opponants call) but facing a call of 100 in a 300 pot we only need 25% equity as we are getting 3/1 pot odds so how we calculate equity need to break even on a bet to to equity to break even on a call must be different. So some of what i say above must be wrong somehow.
you 100% do include your bet to get the equity in % if the pot is 200 and the bet 100 then you can use a ratio and say the pot is laying 2 to 1. that is the same as saying 100/[100+200] = 33% equity. people have conflated the two ideas Posted by TeddyBloat
OK this is flawed somehow because surely we have to count our opponants call in the equation if we are working out equity needed to break even on our bet.
we bet 100 into 200=300 pot ,than we must add on another 100 =400 so its 25% equity is our break even point in the hand if we bet 100 into a 200 pot.
To get 33% we would need to bet 200 into 200=400 + Opponants call =600/200=33%
you 100% do include your bet to get the equity in % if the pot is 200 and the bet 100 then you can use a ratio and say the pot is laying 2 to 1. that is the same as saying 100/[100+200] = 33% equity. people have conflated the two ideas Posted by TeddyBloat
OK. This calculation is flawed because you're not including opponants call. This threw me a little as i was getting different results when calc equity needed to break even on a bet than to break even on a call.
If we bet 100 into 200 we have to include another 100 (opponants call) . 100/400=25%. So betting 100 into 200 we need 25% equity to break even on our bet.
On flip side facing a call of 100 in a 300 pot will be 100/400=25% is the break even point in equity needed.
So whatever equity needed when we make a bet to break even on a bet, is the same equity needed for out opponant to break even on his call.
Calulating equity needed when calling a bet will be dividing amount needed to call by P+C so 1290+550=1740 550/1740=31%
By 1290/550 is actually working out what pot odds we have ie 1290/550=2.34/1 and not our equity need to break even.
you 100% do include your bet to get the equity in % if the pot is 200 and the bet 100 then you can use a ratio and say the pot is laying 2 to 1. that is the same as saying 100/[100+200] = 33% equity. people have conflated the two ideas Posted by TeddyBloat
Another bit to add is that if we are pure bluffing and need our opponent to fold, than thats a different story
In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do! : OK. This calculation is flawed because you're not including opponants call. This threw me a little as i was getting different results when calc equity needed to break even on a bet than to break even on a call. If we bet 100 into 200 we have to include another 100 (opponants call) . 100/400=25%. So betting 100 into 200 we need 25% equity to break even on our bet. On flip side facing a call of 100 in a 300 pot will be 100/400=25% is the break even point in equity needed. So whatever equity needed when we make a bet to break even on a bet, is the same equity needed for out opponant to break even on his call. Calulating equity needed when calling a bet will be dividing amount needed to call by P+C so 1290+550=1740 550/1740=31% By 1290/550 is actually working out what pot odds we have ie 1290/550=2.34/1 and not our equity need to break even. With help of Dueces Cracked poster. Posted by mugsy78
sorry i meant to say "you absolutely do need to include your CALL"
not "bet". brainfart moment sorry.
to calculate the equity of a bet you need to combine fold equity with actual pot equity when called.
In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do! : sorry i meant to say "you absolutely do need to include your CALL" not "bet". brainfart moment sorry. to calculate the equity of a bet you need to combine fold equity with actual pot equity when called. fold equity + pot equity = EV of bet one formula we can use: EV of bet = [Fe x Pi] + [1-Fe]x[Pe x Pii - I] Fe = % of opponents range that will fold to bet Pi = the pot before bet [1-Fe] just gives us his calling range in % Pe = our equity v villains calling range Pii = pot we will win I = investment ------ Posted by TeddyBloat
Good stuff Teddy, i had a brain f art earlier in the thread hence the "lol" post.
But you inadvertantly highlighted how to work out if its going to be profitable to bluff if we have 0% equity in a hand.
If we bet 100 into 200 we need our opponent to fold more than 33% of the time for our pure bluff to be profitable. 100+200=300 100/300=33%
Been a good thread though, stimulated my little brain ;0
Very interesting discussion and thanks to everyone for taking the time to respond. The responses rode the range from a check (with a view to check-raising all-in) to a shove!
The consensus seemed to be to bet about 550 (thereby giving players the odds to call to a straight or flush) and get it in on a safe turn. But are we ever going to fold an 'unsafe' turn?
We are forgetting implied odds if two or more go with the 550 bet. We lose if a flush or a str8 hits without us improving. Shove and take the easy money rather than risk loosing all of it. With two or more callers the odds of a nasty outcome will get greater and greater.
Comments
If it's a 50% pot bet opponent will only need 25% equity to break even as hes getting 3/1. IF it's a pot bet opponant will only need 33% equity to break even as hes getting 2/1. So betting 550 into 1290 he'll be getting odds of 5/2 so he need approx 29% equity to break even.
Odds of hitting a straight draw or flush on turn are approx 20% so a 60-70% bet looks good here.
Thats better, with the help of dueces cracked poster.
if the pot is 200 and the bet 100 then you can use a ratio and say the pot is laying 2 to 1.
that is the same as saying 100/[100+200] =
33% equity.
people have conflated the two ideas
So 550/1290=42 are actually pot odds( approx get 2.5 42's into 100) so pot odds are approx 5/2.
To Calculate our equity we add on the amount to call +pot then divide amount to call with so 550/1740=28%.
I read your post before it wasdeleted and it was pretty solid. I made the same mistake as others.
Also knowing what equity we need to break even on our bet to what equity we need when calling is slighty different.
IE if we bet 100 into a 200 pot than we need 33% equity to break even on the bet( not counting our opponants call) but facing a call of 100 in a 300 pot we only need 25% equity as we are getting 3/1 pot odds so how we calculate equity need to break even on a bet to to equity to break even on a call must be different. So some of what i say above must be wrong somehow.
we bet 100 into 200=300 pot ,than we must add on another 100 =400 so its 25% equity is our break even point in the hand if we bet 100 into a 200 pot.
To get 33% we would need to bet 200 into 200=400 + Opponants call =600/200=33%
If we bet 100 into 200 we have to include another 100 (opponants call) . 100/400=25%. So betting 100 into 200 we need 25% equity to break even on our bet.
On flip side facing a call of 100 in a 300 pot will be 100/400=25% is the break even point in equity needed.
So whatever equity needed when we make a bet to break even on a bet, is the same equity needed for out opponant to break even on his call.
Calulating equity needed when calling a bet will be dividing amount needed to call by P+C so 1290+550=1740
550/1740=31%
By 1290/550 is actually working out what pot odds we have ie 1290/550=2.34/1 and not our equity need to break even.
With help of Dueces Cracked poster.
not "bet". brainfart moment sorry.
to calculate the equity of a bet you need to combine fold equity with actual pot equity when called.
fold equity + pot equity = EV of bet
one formula we can use:
EV of bet = [Fe x Pi] + [1-Fe]x[Pe x Pii - I]
Fe = % of opponents range that will fold to bet
Pi = the pot before bet
[1-Fe] just gives us his calling range in %
Pe = our equity v villains calling range
Pii = pot we will win
I = investment
------
But you inadvertantly highlighted how to work out if its going to be profitable to bluff if we have 0% equity in a hand.
If we bet 100 into 200 we need our opponent to fold more than 33% of the time for our pure bluff to be profitable. 100+200=300 100/300=33%
Been a good thread though, stimulated my little brain ;0