Sat call or fold?

DOHHHHHHH

This could be an easy call, an easy fold, or close. I've no idea, useless at sats.

6pm sat into the main last night, 36 left from 150, 30 prizes.

I'm 33rd/34th.

Opponent had previously shown he knows what he's doing, taking shoving spots with weak holdings on 2 occasions, 1 I remember was a button shove with 45s with a stack just about big enough to have fold equity still.


1,119 to call.

Would leave me 1.9k with 600 in blind next hand....

1bigdaddy	Small blind		600.00	600.00	12222.00
DOHHHHHHH	Big blind		1200.00	1800.00	3050.00
	Your hole cards	6 7
REDARROW61	All-in		2319.00	4119.00	0.00
unbpower	Fold
Dideusboo	Fold
JONONZIE	Fold
1bigdaddy	Fold
DOHHHHHHH

Slipwater

Do we know what the average stack is? I'm leaning heavily towards a fold here - I know we've already chucked in 1,200 chips, and it's only another 1,100, but I really can't see us beating very much with 67 off.

DOHHHHHHH

It'll be 150 x 2,000 / 36 = 8.3kish avg.......?

mugsy78

I'm calling. Folding here is just so meh when you're getting 3/1, we shouldn't care too much about holdings when facing such odds. I don't think you should ever let your M get this low, even in a sat. Still 6 players to go before a prize so you need chips from somewhere, getting it in here one of those where you just have to sigh and call.

hhyftrftdr

No chance we can fold to a seat so think I'd call and go for it. 

mugsy78

In Response to Re: Sat call or fold?:

Do we know what the average stack is? I'm leaning heavily towards a fold here - I know we've already chucked in 1,200 chips, and it's only another 1,100, but I really can't see us beating very much with 67 off.
Posted by Slipwater

Calling here is obv +EV, so why pass that up. It does not matter that we are behind, we only need 25% equity to break even, thats almost the equity needed to crack any over pair.

rancid

27% required

Slipwater

In Response to Re: Sat call or fold?:

In Response to Re: Sat call or fold? : Calling here is obv +EV, so why pass that up. It does not matter that we are behind, we only need 25% equity to break even, thats almost the equity needed to crack any over pair.
Posted by mugsy78

That may well be, mugsy, but in the fifteen seconds we get to make our decision, I think we fold more often than we call. Equity percentages just do not (accurately) enter our thought processes in this limited space of time.

DOHHHHHHH

It being a sat makes no difference then?

Ofc I click 'call any' as soon as he shoves in a normal mtt. Thought the sat survival thing might change it.

77Chris91

In Response to Re: Sat call or fold?:

It being a sat makes no difference then? Ofc I click 'call any' as soon as he shoves in a normal mtt. Thought the sat survival thing might change it.
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

It does... But we need 6 people to bust still.

All things considered it's a call imo.

mugsy78

In Response to Re: Sat call or fold?:

It being a sat makes no difference then? Ofc I click 'call any' as soon as he shoves in a normal mtt. Thought the sat survival thing might change it.
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

Theres just too many players to go before the prize. Obviously you can let your M get a little lower in sats but letting it get to 2 is just too low, even for a sat.

mugsy78

In Response to Re: Sat call or fold?:

In Response to Re: Sat call or fold? : That may well be, mugsy, but in the fifteen seconds we get to make our decision, I think we fold more often than we call. Equity percentages just do not (accurately) enter our thought processes in this limited space of time.
Posted by Slipwater

Not sure if you're trying to level me here. We should already know what pot odds we are facing even before the action gets to us. Its not really hard to work out what 1000/4000 is to get an approx of equity. I see Rancid gets a more accurate answer but honestly this should come auto to you. We don't really need a pin point calc to give us a rough idea..

Also what do you think about when facing all ins if you're not thinking abour equity, pot odds etc?

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: Sat call or fold?:

In Response to Re: Sat call or fold? : Not sure if you're trying to level me here. We should already know what pot odds we are facing even before the action gets to us. Its not really hard to work out what 1000/4000 is to get an approx of equity. I see Rancid gets a more accurate answer but honestly this should come auto to you. We don't really need a pin point calc to give us a rough idea.. Also what do you think about when facing all ins if you're not thinking abour equity, pot odds etc?
Posted by mugsy78

Usually what flavour of Pot Noodle to have for tea.

mugsy78

In Response to Re: Sat call or fold?:

In Response to Re: Sat call or fold? : Usually what flavour of Pot Noodle to have for tea.
Posted by hhyftrftdr

Heh made me lol

Slipwater

I just don't think I'm calling off another 1,100 chips with a hand that (statistically) is likely to be worse than the villain's. I guess we're ahead of 4 5.

mugsy78

In Response to Re: Sat call or fold?:

I just don't think I'm calling off another 1,100 chips with a hand that (statistically) is likely to be worse than the villain's. I guess we're ahead of 4 5.
Posted by Slipwater

So we wait for a big hand? I think you're missing the point here, it matters not whether we are behind, what matters is our EV on calling here, also we have almost no fold equity if we wait for a hand to shove with as we have to post 600 in the sb the very next hand which leaves op 2bbs and possibly being in a multiway pot when we do get it in.... Folding here pretty much means we are folding our way out of the torny....Just because we get it in on the next hand with AX does not mean we have anymore equity to win the hand as for each player in the pot our equity will be much lower, so its more than feesable to have more equity here with 67 vs 1 player than it will be if we hold AK vs 2 players.. eg 67 37% vs KJ 62%, if we shove with AK and end up in a multi way pot vs trash..AK 36% J10h 34% 67c 28%, so just because we wait for a better hand does not mean we will have more equity when it goes in.

We never fold when facing 3/1 pot odds unless its on the bubble, but 6 away from a prize we don't have that option imo

DOHHHHHHH

Was thinking if I fold, I've still got some fold equity in some spots.

If it's folded to me in the small blind next hand for example.

Or if not I then have 4 hands to find a spot to get it in first, potentially with 60+% equity rather than <40% ?

Worst case scenario, I get it in in this kind of spot again, but officially for my tournament life rather than effectively for my tournament life (like here).

mugsy78

In Response to Re: Sat call or fold?:

Was thinking if I fold, I've still got some fold equity in some spots. If it's folded to me in the small blind next hand for example. Or if not I then have 4 hands to find a spot to get it in first, potentially with 60+% equity rather than <40% ? Worst case scenario, I get it in in this kind of spot again, but officially for my tournament life rather than effectively for my tournament life (like here).
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

its unlikely that you're going to find a spot now where you will have 60+ equity given that you will only have 2bbs if you fold. It's high likely that you're going to be multi-way. Also you have 0 fold equity if you do fold because you give the bb an auto call when you shove, just like this is an auto call.

I remember Casper Berry saying that you never ever fold when facing 3/1 odds..ever. Thats stayed with me and i know why..because it's a mathmatical nightmare when you do fold given such great odds.

Slipwater

I don't add up the percentages and fractions and ratios and divide by this and subtract that and blah blah, mugsy. I look at the hand. I look at the stacks. Then I take it from there. To be honest, I think most players do those things.

But maybe that's why you're a better poker player than I am.

hhyftrftdr

Think I'll plump for Chicken and mushroom flavour tonight.

Slipwater

In Response to Re: Sat call or fold?:

Think I'll plump for Chicken and mushroom flavour tonight.
Posted by hhyftrftdr

Whack a Chicago Town pizza in the oven - Sloppy Joe. Mine's almost ready