In Response to Re: 30BB am i better off to just wait for a hand with jamming potential than call 3xBB with this : I disagree, I consider a 3x open from a 20BB stack a scared bet that doesn't want to have see a flop. I think his range could arguably be capped to exclude AA, KK, QQ, AK. Posted by GaryQQQ
if the reasoning for the 3xBB is that he is scared of seeing the flop then he might as well just do a shove right away because the sort of cards that i'm expecting him to be scared of are the same cards from hands that will do the shove preflop basically AK-AJ and pairs 99-AA.
To me it sounds like middle and low pairs are what you putting him on here, so if someone does then do a shove preflop he would have wasted 3BBs worth of chips.
With these stack sizes, you are better off folding. Posted by iFeesh
No way! KQs and 30 BBs - no way is it a fold. Our hand is just too good.
The problem is that a flat is a -EV play and I suspect a shove is as well (30 BB is too deep for a shove IMO though not done the sums).
I think the best play is a strong re-raise to maybe 10BB with the intention of folding to a shove. It's unlikely we'll be called (name a single hand that can call us!) so the villain must either fold or come over the top. Either way we don't actually care.
here are two KQ's which didn't get the sucess they wanted when i look at this hand i'm probably thinking myself that J10 is a hand with greater winning potential than KQ.
EDDIE1883
Small blind
50.00
50.00
5562.50
craigcu12
Big blind
100.00
150.00
1365.00
Your hole cards
J
10
anglerfish
Raise
300.00
450.00
2325.00
paul428
Fold
SoLack
Fold
Bobatron
Call
300.00
750.00
6980.00
EDDIE1883
Fold
craigcu12
All-in
1365.00
2115.00
0.00
anglerfish
Call
1165.00
3280.00
1160.00
Bobatron
All-in
6980.00
10260.00
0.00
anglerfish
All-in
1160.00
11420.00
0.00
Bobatron
Unmatched bet
4655.00
6765.00
4655.00
craigcu12
Show
J
10
anglerfish
Show
A
A
Bobatron
Show
Q
K
Flop
3
6
8
Turn
9
River
Q
craigcu12
Win
Straight to the Queen
4445.00
4445.00
anglerfish
Win
Pair of Aces
2320.00
2320.00
i might have lost this one but lucky for me he called with the Ax that i wanted him to hold A2-A10 i'm thinking is going to fold most days as their is atleast 4 more dominant aces and it was UTG
here are two KQ's which didn't get the sucess they wanted when i look at this hand i'm probably thinking myself that J10 is a hand with greater winning potential than KQ. Posted by craigcu12
One of the biggest myths in HE and long may the less experienced player believe it!
For years many of the 'old boys' (those who grew up playing poker at the kitchen table) believed that TJs was the best hand in poker (TJ always makes the nut straight, by the way). It is a very good hand when extremely deep, but shallow I'd take queen deuce over it any day!
In Response to Re: 30BB am i better off to just wait for a hand with jamming potential than call 3xBB with this : No way! KQs and 30 BBs - no way is it a fold. Our hand is just too good. The problem is that a flat is a -EV play and I suspect a shove is as well (30 BB is too deep for a shove IMO though not done the sums). I think the best play is a strong re-raise to maybe 10BB with the intention of folding to a shove. It's unlikely we'll be called (name a single hand that can call us!) so the villain must either fold or come over the top. Either way we don't actually care. Posted by BigBluster
If we raise to 10bb, then we have to call the shove. 3betting to 10bb to then fold to a 20bb shove is not a viable option IMO.
In Response to Re: 30BB am i better off to just wait for a hand with jamming potential than call 3xBB with this : One of the biggest myths in HE and long may the less experienced player believe it! For years many of the 'old boys' (those who grew up playing poker at the kitchen table) believed that TJs was the best hand in poker (TJ always makes the nut straight, by the way). It is a very good hand when extremely deep, but shallow I'd take queen deuce over it any day! Posted by BigBluster
KQ might look a stronger hand than J10 but the thing with J10 is the equtity post flop is much better as the flops that you want to make the dominant hands fold are them which have J or 10.
Knowing that if KQ were reraised preflop the hands we are wanting to call are going to fold instead we will be up against the more dominant kicker or a few flips vs 77-JJ so we would be best off making the call.
It's on the flop that things go in favour of J10 rather than KQ
if the flop comes K high or Q high the J10 can escape without much trouble at all but with KQ we have hit our pair so will make the call but what we won't want to do is jam as that will remove the worst hands leaving us beat most days.
A much better flop would be a flop that was J high because if he's holding AK and AQ we might be able to push him off them both by doing a shove and maybe the smaller pairs will fold too all we are expecting is AA KK QQ AJ and sets but again this is where J10 has got the advantage over KQ. with KQ their is big problems as AA and KK mean KQ needs runner runner, QQ will mean that it only has 3 Ks that will be of any help, the only hand that does not give it mayhem is AJ. with J10 things are totally differant as that can do a shove on the flop to protect from the over cards and as long as the hand is not a set then were are certain to still have outs on the turn.
as for flops 9 high well they are only just in favour of KQ because JJ is definately going to need runner runner if he is facing over pairs except 1010 where as KQ is safe against all but KK and AA
Mucking a hand as powerful as KQs pre-flop to a single action at any stack depth (when readless) is not the way to win poker tournaments. Those advocating a pre-flop fold are too nitty for their own good.
Who posted words to the effect of 'surely you wouldn't jam on a Th9h8h flop' then deleted it? Yes, I 100% would. My hand strength is irrelevant to my decision to shove on any non-ace flop, I'm only thinking of the villains hand-strenth. That flop is 10x more likely to be super-scary to the villain than it is to help him. Nobody was putting JQ, TJ, T9, 98, 76 or similar in his 3x opening range. Can he call there with AK, or any other ace-high hand without a heart? Posted by GaryQQQ
I did and the post is still there.
Villain's range for even c-betting a 8h9h10h is gonna be heavily weighted towards overpairs/big flush draws. Jamming a flop like this with so little equity is not going to be even close to profitable imo.
In Response to Re: 30BB am i better off to just wait for a hand with jamming potential than call 3xBB with this : I did and the post is still there. Villain's range for even c-betting a 8h9h10h is gonna be heavily weighted towards overpairs/big flush draws. Jamming a flop like this with so little equity is not going to be even close to profitable imo. Fwiw I agree that we should flat preflop. Posted by 77Chris91
Sorry, I couldn't see it when I posted, I can see it now.
If we flat call pre-flop there is 7.5BB in the pot. Let's say the villain c-bets 4BB, there is now 11BB in the pot.
Such a co-ordinated flop is highly unlikely, however how often will the villain hold a hand which justifies calling off the rest his stack for his tournament life on such a scary flop? Can he call with AK/AQ without Ah? Can he call with any pair 77 or below? Can he call with the same hand as us?
We're shoving 9BB to win 11BB, so we need to get the shove through less than 50% of the time to show an immediate profit, and that's without factoring in the equity we have when called.
The 3 hearts on the board that means 58% of the time the villain will have no heart in his hand at all. The chance of him holding a made flush is only 2.5%.
In Response to Re: 30BB am i better off to just wait for a hand with jamming potential than call 3xBB with this : Sorry, I couldn't see it when I posted, I can see it now. If we flat call pre-flop there is 7.5BB in the pot. Let's say the villain c-bets 4BB, there is now 11BB in the pot. Such a co-ordinated flop is highly unlikely, however how often will the villain hold a hand which justifies calling off the rest his stack for his tournament life on such a scary flop? Can he call with AK/AQ without Ah? Can he call with any pair 77 or below? Can he call with the same hand as us? We're shoving 9BB to win 11BB, so we need to get the shove through less than 50% of the time to show an immediate profit, and that's without factoring in the equity we have when called. The 3 hearts on the board that means 58% of the time the villain will have no heart in his hand at all. The chance of him holding a made flush is only 2.5%. Posted by GaryQQQ
Your not taking into account the villains c-betting range on this sort of flop texture. Any half decent villain is just not gonna be c-betting complete air out of a now 17bb stack. This sort of board smacks your calling range. When the villain does c-bet this sort of board I think there range is heavily weighted towards overpairs/decent flush draws. This is why imo a shove here with KQcc is pretty awful. I expect them to fold a small % of the time and when we are called we have very little equity.
i should fold the flop but thought to myself i've put l lots in now so took the call for the last 6 blinds i was thinking of jamming postflop but i could see that too being called. we are too reliant on hitting K or Q when the bet size at this stage is not min bets
when i look back at these 4 hands they all have the same trouble. KQ looks a strong hand but it's not strong enough to do a 3bet as the hands we want to see are going to fold leaving us with only the better hands, then on the flop if he cbets at points like this a raise by KQ would see the hero jam most days.
You should fold preflop Craig, if you don't wanna fold then it's a jam.
Don't blame the hands, it's often gonna be either the way you've played it, or just variance in terms of whether u got coolered, whether someone peeled trash and got there etc etc.
KQ is a better hand than JT by far, arguing otherwise is just silly. It's also an amazing hand when you're coming across a lot of really weak players (like you will be) because they will raise, or raise/call or limp/call SO many hands that KQ crushes.
FWIW....
JTo above - It's a fold pre and you got insanely lucky
KQo (just below JTo) - It's marginal imo, shoving is probably good depending on dynamics etc. Don't expect people to fold AJ when you have 10xBB because of the tiny chance you might have AQ/AK
You can't use those 2 hands as a form of evidence just because in one you got really lucky and happened to win, and one you lose a standard 40/60, so decide JT must be better than KQ
Craig, that KQ above should've been in the muck pre. But if you want to play it, then re shove pre. As a last resort, at least bet enough on the flop to put masheder01 all in. Will they still call? Possibly. But at least you've put them to the test.
If I was going to cold call the shorty shove pre, it's to put the other guy all in on any flop if he comes along with us.
in general I still see KQ as a hand that is much better than J10.
the time i'm refering to J10 being better than KQ relates mostly to the way gary is treating this villian.
he seems to be making out that after the player of the original hand is doing 3xBB because he is scared most flops, so we will be able to jam flops 9,10 and J high with KQ and he will be too scared to call.
the 3 other hands i posted related to what garys thinking is with KQ.
the hand where i shoved J10 gary is saying in an earlier post that KQ should 3bet preflop and the 3xBB that was made by the player UTG is more like a sign of worry than strength.
the 3rd KQ relates to gary when he is thinking even when a player has 3xBB preflop and spent 4BB with his cbet he will still insist on folding the hand, if this guy wants to jam the flop i can see him calling if i jammed rather than Ch/C.
the reason i said KQ is probably worst than J10 related to gary saying that he would jam KQ on any flop that isn't A high, that's where i feel J10 has more strength as jamming K or Q high and KQ is mostly splitting the pot or loosing the whole stack J10 can just make the easy fold, a jam on J and 10 high would see premium pair call most times so the KQ will need runner runner two pair where as J can hit most times OTT only JJ on 10 high or TPTK will allow KQ to hit OTT as for 9 high or smaller they about simular strength needing a flip.
In Response to Re: 30BB am i better off to just wait for a hand with jamming potential than call 3xBB with this : I did and the post is still there. Villain's range for even c-betting a 8h9h10h is gonna be heavily weighted towards overpairs/big flush draws. Jamming a flop like this with so little equity is not going to be even close to profitable imo. Fwiw I agree that we should flat preflop. Posted by 77Chris91
I just ran 8h9hTh and my original estimate of the villains opening range through Flopzilla (with our KQcc removed from the deck obv.)
Using that range it's impossible for him to flop a straight or two pairs. He will flop a made flush 4% of the time, a set 7% of the time. 15% of the time he will hold an overpair, 11% of the time he'll have a nut-flush draw. So 37% of the time he will have a relatively easy call.
63% of the time he's going to find himself facing a difficult decision for his tournament life, often holding ace-high, an open-ended straight draw or a gut-shot.
We need a fold <40% of the time for our flop shove to be profitable.
Funnily enough I just found myself facing a 3x open, holding KQ on the button, 20BB effective stacks.
OK, my cards weren't suited, apart from that it was a very similar situation to that in the OP.
As you can see I practise what I preach; a 3-bet shove is preferable to either a pre-flop fold or a flat call.
Had I made my other suggested play, the "call pre/shove any flop" move I almost certainly would have got a fold on the flop. If called I would have won.
Comments
To me it sounds like middle and low pairs are what you putting him on here, so if someone does then do a shove preflop he would have wasted 3BBs worth of chips.
when i look at this hand i'm probably thinking myself that J10 is a hand with greater winning potential than KQ.
Knowing that if KQ were reraised preflop the hands we are wanting to call are going to fold instead we will be up against the more dominant kicker or a few flips vs 77-JJ so we would be best off making the call.
It's on the flop that things go in favour of J10 rather than KQ
if the flop comes K high or Q high the J10 can escape without much trouble at all but with KQ we have hit our pair so will make the call but what we won't want to do is jam as that will remove the worst hands leaving us beat most days.
A much better flop would be a flop that was J high because if he's holding AK and AQ we might be able to push him off them both by doing a shove and maybe the smaller pairs will fold too all we are expecting is AA KK QQ AJ and sets but again this is where J10 has got the advantage over KQ.
with KQ their is big problems as AA and KK mean KQ needs runner runner, QQ will mean that it only has 3 Ks that will be of any help, the only hand that does not give it mayhem is AJ.
with J10 things are totally differant as that can do a shove on the flop to protect from the over cards and as long as the hand is not a set then were are certain to still have outs on the turn.
as for flops 9 high well they are only just in favour of KQ because JJ is definately going to need runner runner if he is facing over pairs except 1010 where as KQ is safe against all but KK and AA
Mucking a hand as powerful as KQs pre-flop to a single action at any stack depth (when readless) is not the way to win poker tournaments. Those advocating a pre-flop fold are too nitty for their own good.
Villain's range for even c-betting a 8h9h10h is gonna be heavily weighted towards overpairs/big flush draws. Jamming a flop like this with so little equity is not going to be even close to profitable imo.
Fwiw I agree that we should flat preflop.
If we flat call pre-flop there is 7.5BB in the pot. Let's say the villain c-bets 4BB, there is now 11BB in the pot.
Such a co-ordinated flop is highly unlikely, however how often will the villain hold a hand which justifies calling off the rest his stack for his tournament life on such a scary flop? Can he call with AK/AQ without Ah? Can he call with any pair 77 or below? Can he call with the same hand as us?
We're shoving 9BB to win 11BB, so we need to get the shove through less than 50% of the time to show an immediate profit, and that's without factoring in the equity we have when called.
The 3 hearts on the board that means 58% of the time the villain will have no heart in his hand at all. The chance of him holding a made flush is only 2.5%.
KQ looks a strong hand but it's not strong enough to do a 3bet as the hands we want to see are going to fold leaving us with only the better hands, then on the flop if he cbets at points like this a raise by KQ would see the hero jam most days.
KQ is a better hand than JT by far, arguing otherwise is just silly. It's also an amazing hand when you're coming across a lot of really weak players (like you will be) because they will raise, or raise/call or limp/call SO many hands that KQ crushes.
the time i'm refering to J10 being better than KQ relates mostly to the way gary is treating this villian.
he seems to be making out that after the player of the original hand is doing 3xBB because he is scared most flops, so we will be able to jam flops 9,10 and J high with KQ and he will be too scared to call.
the 3 other hands i posted related to what garys thinking is with KQ.
the hand where i shoved J10 gary is saying in an earlier post that KQ should 3bet preflop and the 3xBB that was made by the player UTG is more like a sign of worry than strength.
the 3rd KQ relates to gary when he is thinking even when a player has 3xBB preflop and spent 4BB with his cbet he will still insist on folding the hand, if this guy wants to jam the flop i can see him calling if i jammed rather than Ch/C.
the reason i said KQ is probably worst than J10 related to gary saying that he would jam KQ on any flop that isn't A high, that's where i feel J10 has more strength as jamming K or Q high and KQ is mostly splitting the pot or loosing the whole stack J10 can just make the easy fold, a jam on J and 10 high would see premium pair call most times so the KQ will need runner runner two pair where as J can hit most times OTT only JJ on 10 high or TPTK will allow KQ to hit OTT as for 9 high or smaller they about simular strength needing a flip.
gary's probably making things confusing.
In general KQ is CERTAINLY a hand i would have over J10.
Using that range it's impossible for him to flop a straight or two pairs. He will flop a made flush 4% of the time, a set 7% of the time. 15% of the time he will hold an overpair, 11% of the time he'll have a nut-flush draw. So 37% of the time he will have a relatively easy call.
63% of the time he's going to find himself facing a difficult decision for his tournament life, often holding ace-high, an open-ended straight draw or a gut-shot.
We need a fold <40% of the time for our flop shove to be profitable.
OK, my cards weren't suited, apart from that it was a very similar situation to that in the OP.
As you can see I practise what I preach; a 3-bet shove is preferable to either a pre-flop fold or a flat call.
Had I made my other suggested play, the "call pre/shove any flop" move I almost certainly would have got a fold on the flop. If called I would have won.