2 pair - can I get away?

F_Ivanovic

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
long1970	Small blind		30.00	30.00	7082.50
F_Ivanovic	Big blind		60.00	90.00	15195.00
	Your hole cards	10 K
didalo	Raise		120.00	210.00	3065.00
DivsDreams	Fold
cheekie74	Fold
long1970	Call		90.00	300.00	6992.50
F_Ivanovic	Call		60.00	360.00	15135.00
Flop
		K 10 5
long1970	Bet		60.00	420.00	6932.50
F_Ivanovic	Raise		300.00	720.00	14835.00
didalo	Fold
long1970	Raise		960.00	1680.00	5972.50
F_Ivanovic	Call		720.00	2400.00	14115.00
Turn
		8
long1970	Bet		2400.00	4800.00	3572.50
F_Ivanovic	Raise		6000.00	10800.00	8115.00
long1970	All-in		3572.50	14372.50	0.00
F_Ivanovic	Unmatched bet		27.50	14345.00	8142.50
long1970	Show
F_Ivanovic	Show
River
		Q

So played this hand in the B/H right after I got a massive 3 way pot that went my way and took me to close to chip leader. Then this happened - player in question hadn't really been involved in any pots that I'd seen. If I had bet the flop and been raised I wouldn't have any hesitation shoving it in/waiting for a safe turn. But he min-bet, then 3-bet.

 

77Chris91

Nope - Getting it in and feeling pretty good about it.

hhyftrftdr

Yeah tough to lay down. Only thing that would concern me is the min bet/raise. This generally tends to be towards a nutting range in my experience. But many weaker players would consider K5/105 as the nuts here so its all gravy.

cenachav

Not getting off it either but would doubt if I was ahead looking back on the betting.  Would put him on a set of 5's if pushed

Lambert180

Feels really hard to fold but his line looks so ridic strong, tiny donk bet then 3bets the flop, then pots the turn just wtf lol. The only worse hand I could imagine him doing it with is maybe some vvv strong draw likw QJcc maybe AQcc.

I think we're gonna be beat here alot but folding is so urgh.

alex1229

Gotta be set of 5's?

77Chris91

AK, AJc AQc J9c = 11 Combos

5's 10's = 4 Combos

Gii!

grantorino

When he bets turn we need over 40% equity. Only 6 hands beat us. I think we can find enough we beat in his range given how he played hand. Wouldn't rule out AA here. 

CraigSG1

As soon as he min bets and then raises again I think we are in trouble. I know we can't really fold to his flop 3 bet but in MTT's this line is almost always a strong made hand. I know your a very good player but I can't see why we raise him allin OTT as we surely only getting called when we are behind considering his position and previous actions. I can think of only one hand we are ahead of (K5) that may play it this way but if this isn't a set of fives I would be shocked. 

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: 2 pair - can I get away?:

AK, AJc AQc J9c = 11 Combos 5's 10's = 4 Combos Gii!
Posted by 77Chris91

Really can't imagine ever being up against AK given his line of flatting pre then min donk/3betting flop. If he did flat with AK pre he's either betting bigger OTF himself or just flatting the raise.

board: KcTd5c

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
QcJc, AcQc, AcTc, AcJc, 55, TT, KT	59.59%	44,664	34,560
KT	40.41%	24,726	34,560

So this is what I thought his range might be at the time. I'm not a huge dog by any means and if we include an other 3 combos of K5s I'm almost at 50% equity. At the time I knew getting it in on the flop would be bad - so I called because then against his flush draws OTT my equity goes up quite a bit. So it's much better to get it in on a safe turn than on the flop. The 8 rolls off OTT and villain bets pot and now I'm not convinced whether to follow through on the plan or not. It just looked a lot like 55 and not so much like a flush draw. But I don't like not sticking with a plan, so ended up just praying and shoving. Ofc I was right to be wary - I was shown 55 and instantly regretted my decision. 

I think in a cash game I would probably be fine with this play. It's still marginal, but I do think it's +ev just about. The problem is there was no need for me to get into a marginal spot risking half of my stack when I was currently chip leader and sitting v comfortably!

77Chris91

Tbh against any villain who does these weird min leads I'm not willing to take AK out of their range.

Imo gii on the turn is definitely +ev for us.

Which program do you use for your equity calcs Ivan?