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2 pair - can I get away?

F_IvanovicF_Ivanovic Member Posts: 2,409
edited December 2021 in Strategy
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
long1970Small blind30.0030.007082.50
F_IvanovicBig blind 60.0090.0015195.00
 Your hole cards
  • 10
  • K
   
didaloRaise 120.00210.003065.00
DivsDreamsFold    
cheekie74Fold    
long1970Call 90.00300.006992.50
F_IvanovicCall 60.00360.0015135.00
Flop
  
  • K
  • 10
  • 5
   
long1970Bet 60.00420.006932.50
F_IvanovicRaise 300.00720.0014835.00
didaloFold    
long1970Raise 960.001680.005972.50
F_IvanovicCall 720.002400.0014115.00
Turn
  
  • 8
   
long1970Bet 2400.004800.003572.50
F_IvanovicRaise 6000.0010800.008115.00
long1970All-in 3572.5014372.500.00
F_IvanovicUnmatched bet 27.5014345.008142.50
long1970Show    
F_IvanovicShow    
River
  
  • Q
   
      
So played this hand in the B/H right after I got a massive 3 way pot that went my way and took me to close to chip leader. Then this happened - player in question hadn't really been involved in any pots that I'd seen. If I had bet the flop and been raised I wouldn't have any hesitation shoving it in/waiting for a safe turn. But he min-bet, then 3-bet.
 
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Comments

  • 77Chris9177Chris91 Member Posts: 375
    edited March 2014

    Nope - Getting it in and feeling pretty good about it.

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  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr Member Posts: 8,036
    edited March 2014
    Yeah tough to lay down. Only thing that would concern me is the min bet/raise. This generally tends to be towards a nutting range in my experience. But many weaker players would consider K5/105 as the nuts here so its all gravy.
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  • cenachavcenachav Member Posts: 2,682
    edited March 2014
    Not getting off it either but would doubt if I was ahead looking back on the betting.  Would put him on a set of 5's if pushed
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  • Lambert180Lambert180 Member Posts: 12,197
    edited March 2014
    Feels really hard to fold but his line looks so ridic strong, tiny donk bet then 3bets the flop, then pots the turn just wtf lol. The only worse hand I could imagine him doing it with is maybe some vvv strong draw likw QJcc maybe AQcc.

    I think we're gonna be beat here alot but folding is so urgh.
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  • alex1229alex1229 Member Posts: 680
    edited March 2014
    Gotta be set of 5's?
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  • 77Chris9177Chris91 Member Posts: 375
    edited March 2014
    AK, AJc AQc J9c = 11 Combos

    5's 10's = 4 Combos

    Gii!
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  • grantorinograntorino Member Posts: 4,710
    edited March 2014
    When he bets turn we need over 40% equity. Only 6 hands beat us. I think we can find enough we beat in his range given how he played hand. Wouldn't rule out AA here. 
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  • CraigSG1CraigSG1 Member Posts: 1,823
    edited March 2014
    As soon as he min bets and then raises again I think we are in trouble. I know we can't really fold to his flop 3 bet but in MTT's this line is almost always a strong made hand. I know your a very good player but I can't see why we raise him allin OTT as we surely only getting called when we are behind considering his position and previous actions. I can think of only one hand we are ahead of (K5) that may play it this way but if this isn't a set of fives I would be shocked. 
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  • F_IvanovicF_Ivanovic Member Posts: 2,409
    edited March 2014
    In Response to Re: 2 pair - can I get away?:
    AK, AJc AQc J9c = 11 Combos 5's 10's = 4 Combos Gii!
    Posted by 77Chris91
    Really can't imagine ever being up against AK given his line of flatting pre then min donk/3betting flop. If he did flat with AK pre he's either betting bigger OTF himself or just flatting the raise.

    board: KcTd5c
    HandEquityWinsTies
    QcJc, AcQc, AcTc, AcJc, 55, TT, KT59.59%44,66434,560
    KT40.41%24,72634,560
    So this is what I thought his range might be at the time. I'm not a huge dog by any means and if we include an other 3 combos of K5s I'm almost at 50% equity. At the time I knew getting it in on the flop would be bad - so I called because then against his flush draws OTT my equity goes up quite a bit. So it's much better to get it in on a safe turn than on the flop. The 8 rolls off OTT and villain bets pot and now I'm not convinced whether to follow through on the plan or not. It just looked a lot like 55 and not so much like a flush draw. But I don't like not sticking with a plan, so ended up just praying and shoving. Ofc I was right to be wary - I was shown 55 and instantly regretted my decision. 

    I think in a cash game I would probably be fine with this play. It's still marginal, but I do think it's +ev just about. The problem is there was no need for me to get into a marginal spot risking half of my stack when I was currently chip leader and sitting v comfortably!
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  • 77Chris9177Chris91 Member Posts: 375
    edited March 2014
    Tbh against any villain who does these weird min leads I'm not willing to take AK out of their range.

    Imo gii on the turn is definitely +ev for us.

    Which program do you use for your equity calcs Ivan?
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