how to count odds and outs + pot odd A must read

timebomb10

hi im going to try make this as simple as possible

step 1 say we are delt 9,s 10,s and the flop comes Q,c 8,s k,s   :
so we will look at what cards make our hand stronger 
we know any spade will give flush so thats 2,3,4,5,6,7,J,A =8 cards
or any jack                                             J,c J,h J,d        =3 cards
so thats 11 cards to give us a stronger hand.
Using the 4 and 2 method on the flop we TIMES it by 4 to give the percentage ov us hitting and making the strongest hand so 11x4 = 44 % chance ov improving our hand
on the turn comes a 7,d then we calculate how many outs we have now

we know any spade will give flush so thats 2,3,4,5,6,7,J,A =8 cards
or any jack                                             J,c J,h J,d        =3 cards
or any 6                                                6,d 6,c 6h         =3 cards
so that is 14 cards that can make out hand better on the river
using the 4 and 2 method we TIMES this by 2 on the turn to give the percentage ov us hitting and making the strongest hand so 14x2 = 28 % chance of improving your hand


say theres 300 in the pot he bets 100 making the pot 400
its 100 for us 2 call making it 4 to 1
if we call 100 that means its 1/5 = 20% ov the pot so we need a 20% chance ov winning to jusify calling

HOPE THIS HAS HELPED ALL OF YOU

EEN

Nice work, id like some more information on it please, maybe elaborate more on the 4 and 2 method.

Are there any other methods to use?

No offence to how you wrote it, but i think if it was worded a little more clearly and maybe had a diagram or even a video, it should be put into the Sky Poker School section.

Nice post though

timebomb10

i have no idea where the 4 and 2 method came from 2 behonest just know to times it by 4 on the flop and times it by 2 on the turn sorry bowt the way its wrote just thought after my last post should help people out lol

EEN

Noo i dont want you to misunderstand me, its clear the way its written, but i meant it should be turned into a proper guide for beginners, as in have its own page or video in the poker school section.

I personally think its great, and wasnt aware of it before, but i will definetly be using it in the future.

Talon

  It has been very well described and quite accurate, except for one important factor. What your opponent is holding. If they are sat on a superior flush draw then most of your outs are dead ones. There needs to be an understanding of the difference between perceived outs and real outs. They only way you can truly use outs is on a nut draw or if you can polarise your opponents holdings.

timebomb10

thanks well i have no idea how to get it on that poker school section lol would just like comments from people to see if it improves peoples games im supprised they havnt done this on poker school or what ever that thing is

timebomb10

i disagree to your post talon depending on how the betting is obviously determins wether u call raise or fold using pot odds so i have no idea where your coming from , if u knew ur opponents cards there would be no need 2 do this in the 1st place

zxghostxz

In Response to how to count odds and outs + pot odd A must read:

hi im going to try make this as simple as possible step 1 say we are delt 9,s 10,s and the flop comes Q,c 8,s k,s   : so we will look at what cards make our hand stronger  we know any spade will give flush so thats 2,3,4,5,6,7,J,A =8 cards or any jack                                             J,c J,h J,d        =3 cards so thats 11 cards to give us a stronger hand. Using the 4 and 2 method on the flop we TIMES it by 4 to give the percentage ov us hitting and making the strongest hand so 11x4 = 44 % chance ov improving our hand on the turn comes a 7,d then we calculate how many outs we have now we know any spade will give flush so thats 2,3,4,5,6,7,J,A =8 cards or any jack                                             J,c J,h J,d        =3 cards or any 6                                                6,d 6,c 6h         =3 cards so that is 14 cards that can make out hand better on the river using the 4 and 2 method we TIMES this by 2 on the turn to give the percentage ov us hitting and making the strongest hand so 14x2 = 28 % chance of improving your hand say theres 300 in the pot he bets 100 making the pot 400 its 100 for us 2 call making it 4 to 1 if we call 100 that means its 1/5 = 20% ov the pot so we need a 20% chance ov winning to jusify calling HOPE THIS HAS HELPED ALL OF YOU
Posted by timebomb10

nice1 timebomb  nice post  

ACESOVER8s

Nice post timebomb, you go into great detail to show a working example. This is the easiest method to work out the odds. The 4 & 2 rule is tried and tested.

And for the other poster who asked if there are other ways of working it out. You could try and get a lot more mathmatical to generate and exact figure to the decimal but probably not in the 15 seconds you have to make a decision on here lol

times your outs by 4 with 2 cards to come

times your outs by 2 with 1 card to come

Remember not to double count outs (Ie if you need either a spade to make the flush or a 6 to improve your hand then make sure you only count the 6 of spades in the Flush outs and leave it from the outs you have by way of a 6)

MereNovice

In Response to Re: how to count odds and outs + pot odd A must read:

  It has been very well described and quite accurate, except for one important factor. What your opponent is holding. If they are sat on a superior flush draw then most of your outs are dead ones. There needs to be an understanding of the difference between perceived outs and real outs. They only way you can truly use outs is on a nut draw or if you can polarise your opponents holdings.
Posted by Talon

To elaborate on this, if your opponent is holding AsJs then you are less than 20% to win the pot after that flop.

The 4 and 2 rule is based on the fact that each card has a likelihood of roughly 2.3% of being dealt after the flop or turn. Therefore you can multiply the number of cards that you think will make you the best hand by this number to give you the odds of you winning the hand. After the turn you can use precisely 2.3%. After the flop, you shouldn't use 4.6% because of the possible duplication of your winning cards and the possibility that your opponent has a re-draw that will beat you. Most players use 4% in this case because it allows a margin for these circumstances and also because it is easier to calculate.
Finally, note that the more outs that you have, the less you should give yourself "the full 4%", this is because of the above factors.
You will find several posts in the strategy section that deal with this topic.

timebomb10

In Response to Re: how to count odds and outs + pot odd A must read:

Nice post timebomb, you go into great detail to show a working example. This is the easiest method to work out the odds. The 4 & 2 rule is tried and tested. And for the other poster who asked if there are other ways of working it out. You could try and get a lot more mathmatical to generate and exact figure to the decimal but probably not in the 15 seconds you have to make a decision on here lol times your outs by 4 with 2 cards to come times your outs by 2 with 1 card to come Remember not to double count outs (Ie if you need either a spade to make the flush or a 6 to improve your hand then make sure you only count the 6 of spades in the Flush outs and leave it from the outs you have by way of a 6)
Posted by ACESOVER8s

yep i missed that bit out but showed it in the hands lol

timebomb10

ok if he has asjs u do pot odds and then see if its worth a call if percentages are right then its fine

timebomb10

In Response to Re: how to count odds and outs + pot odd A must read:

ok if he has asjs u do pot odds and then see if its worth a call if percentages are right then its fine
Posted by timebomb10

say theres 300 in the pot he bets 100 making the pot 400
its 100 for us 2 call making it 4 to 1
if we call 100 that means its 1/5 = 20% ov the pot so we need a 20% chance ov winning to jusify calling



HENSE the word justify

MereNovice

I was trying to illustrate what Talon said - that it is MOST important to put your opponent on a hand (range) before calculating your outs and pot odds.
It is definitely not right to say "if u knew ur opponents cards there would be no need 2 do this in the 1st place" since this is a VERY important part of the process.

Talon

  I will say again the main thing you need to do is put your opponent on a range of hands before you can calculate any pot odds.  As well as losing outs to a higher flush draw or bigger straight draw, you would gain outs if the had a  hand like 22 because then your 9 and 10 would become live cards. Herein lies the difference between real outs and perceived outs.

elsadog

Getting too hung up on the maths is break-even poker. Can someone give me the mathematical formula for, ''I'm sure he has nothing so I'll force him out of the hand.'' Or the one for ''the texture of this flop is so wrong, I'll back off.''

The maths is important but the feel/read is imperative.

MereNovice

In Response to Re: how to count odds and outs + pot odd A must read:

Getting too hung up on the maths is break-even poker. Can someone give me the mathematical formula for, ''I'm sure he has nothing so I'll force him out of the hand.'' Or the one for ''the texture of this flop is so wrong, I'll back off.'' The maths is important but the feel/read is imperative.
Posted by elsadog

Both are important.
Given the right inputs, the maths will ALWAYS be correct.
"Feel/read" is subjective but is, of course, crucial to a good poker player's skill base.

Being "hung up" on maths can be quite profitable for many people - certainly if we use the full definition of maths rather than just plain arithmetic.

timebomb10

you still work out your outs and then calculate pot odds 2 justify the call hense the word justify if your getting the right percentage 2 call u have 2 call if not its a great fold whats hard about that


for another instants

9,s 10,s against    a,s j,s
flop comes Q,c 8,s k,s
turn comes 2s
river comes 5d

say theres 300 in the pot he bets 100 making the pot 400
its 100 for us 2 call making it 4 to 1
if we call 100 that means its 1/5 = 20% ov the pot so we need a 20% chance ov winning to jusify calling
so evan if we do lose we can still justify playing that hand

MereNovice

In Response to Re: how to count odds and outs + pot odd A must read:

you still work out your outs and then calculate pot odds 2 justify the call hense the word justify if your getting the right percentage 2 call u have 2 call if not its a great fold whats hard about that for another instants 9,s 10,s against    a,s j,s flop comes Q,c 8,s k,s turn comes 2s river comes 5d say theres 300 in the pot he bets 100 making the pot 400 its 100 for us 2 call making it 4 to 1 if we call 100 that means its 1/5 = 20% ov the pot so we need a 20% chance ov winning to jusify calling so evan if we do lose we can still justify playing that hand
Posted by timebomb10

Well, that's where Elsadog's comment about "feel" is important.
As we are actually drawing dead after the turn then it would be a bad call if we knew our opponent's hand.
We have to evaluate our hand based on what we think our opponent has and there are MANY factors that need to be considered to be able to do this. After playing lots of hands this becomes "intuitive" to good experienced players - this is what they call "a feel for the game".

The call for pot odds of 20% on the river is only relevant in so far as we need to ask ourselves will our opponent be bluffing (i.e. not have a better flush) more or less times than one in five.

timebomb10

dissagree
ur getting the right price for your chips if u call and are beaten u can still justify calling by your percentages it is a good post for people learning the game and wanna calculate things so why dont u leave it at that

MereNovice

In Response to Re: how to count odds and outs + pot odd A must read:

dissagree ur getting the right price for your chips if u call and are beaten u can still justify calling by your percentages it is a good post for people learning the game and wanna calculate things so why dont u leave it at that
Posted by timebomb10

It's a fine post.
People are just trying to elaborate on it to increase understanding and clarify it - that's how a forum works.