Channing's Bet of the Week...

NChanning

 I promised you I'd post a few bets to help get everyone a few quid to play with. Today I really fancy one race and I'm having two bets...

 Today's big race at Newbury, the Hennessy at 3pm, is a proper horse race. A 3m2f chase over pretty tough fences and a bit of a slog on fairly soft ground. You need a decent class horse that jumps well, goes left handed and has a bit of stamina to get home on this ground. Luckily for us this is a fantastic race for each-way bets with arguably only six horses who really have the class to win and with 19-runners meaning we'll still get four places on each-way bets even if a couple of non-runners crop up. On top of all of that we have a favourite which is definitely an exciting horse who is potentially incredibly well-handicapped, but who is a massive doubt at this trip and who is really young and inexperienced.

 I could easily bet any of the next few in the betting each-way and if you like Many Clouds, The Druid's Nephew, Fingal Bay, Smad Place or Rocky Creek I wouldn't put you off and I'd say you probably have a good bet. I'm going to narrow it down to two here though and have a decent go at winning a few quid.

 Fingal Bay has won here, likes soft ground, has the speed of a hurdler and is from a stable in great form but I'm not so sure over this long trip and he isn't so experienced over fences. I'll leave this.

 Many Clouds loves the ground and looks like he'll stay all day. He seems priced about right and I'm not a massive fan of this stable so I think I'll pass.

 Smad Place is from a great stable, he ran a brilliant race at Cheltenham last year, he loves the soft ground and he has won round here over close to this trip. I do like Alan King a lot and I'm sure he has got the horse here in peak fitness and ready to win but at 7/1 I'd really like to have seen the horse in the last six weeks.

 Neil Mullholland is a really good trainer and the market seems to be slow to catch on to this. I am betting a lot of his horses this year. The Druid's Nephew needs a left-handed track, he stays longer than this 3m2f and he relishes a slog. My main worry would be his slightly dodgy jumping but if he gets round I just can't see him not contesting the finish.

 Rocky Creek has long been thought of as a Grand National horse by Paul Nicholls. He was 2nd in this race last year, we know he stays, we know he likes the ground, he jumps well and he has grown up a little bit since last year. Just looks so solid for a yard in flying form.

 I'm having 12 Points each-way at 10/1 The Druid's Nephew 1/4 1234.

 I'm having 16 Points each-way at 10/1 Rocky Creek 1/4 1234. 

 These two are pretty strong bets for me and I would have happily bet them at 9/1 and 8/1.

 Good luck to all. I think SkyBet are doing 12345 which is brilliant and you can take a slightly lower price to get that.

Tikay10

If these do as well as the free tip you gave last week (won at 12/1), I might just have to marry you Neil.  

TeddyBloat

Are you a professional sports bettor, neil?

How does the edge compare to poker, roi etc?

joesman1

I've had an ew bet every week since the weights were published on Many Clouds. Bit frustrated he picked up the 7lb penalty at Carlisle. I'd have much preferred a gallant 2nd showing his well being, and kept the 7lb off his back, but hey ho. Having read Neil's piece, I've had a saver on Rocky Creek. 

HENDRIK62

Thank you Mr Channing,

It would seem many have taken your advice as the price has come in slightly now.

I know nothing about the gee gees and never bet but I just put on a small amount e/w on both of them......via skybet of course ;-)

Ambassador role bearing fruit already sky.

ps. If neither wins I think you should be forced to play PLO8 sitting between Tikay and Macacgirl......;-)

NoseyBonk

In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:

Thank you Mr Channing, It would seem many have taken your advice as the price has come in slightly now. I know nothing about the gee gees and never bet but I just put on a small amount e/w on both of them......via skybet of course ;-) Ambassador role bearing fruit already sky. ps. If neither wins I think you should be forced to play PLO8 sitting between Tikay and Macacgirl......;-)
Posted by HENDRIK62

Same here - know nowt, but had a bit of beer money e/w on both too. Thanks, Neil!

Tikay10

In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:

Thank you Mr Channing, It would seem many have taken your advice as the price has come in slightly now. I know nothing about the gee gees and never bet but I just put on a small amount e/w on both of them......via skybet of course ;-) Ambassador role bearing fruit already sky. ps. If neither wins I think you should be forced to play PLO8 sitting between Tikay and Macacgirl......;-)
Posted by HENDRIK62

Harsh.

NChanning

In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:

Are you a professional sports bettor, neil? How does the edge compare to poker, roi etc?
Posted by TeddyBloat

 Hi Teddy, I have bet on horses virtually every day since I as around 17 (don't do that obviously kids). Between 21 (when I was at Uni) and 27 years old I went racing around 5 times a week and made my living from that. I know how those jockeys felt, I drove 5000 miles a week.

 At the age of 29 I started working in spread betting as an odds-compiler. I did this for about 9 years but while I was doing it I also became a racecourse bookmaker.

 About 12 years ago I started working with two guys who were both and are still both the two most talented gamblers I have ever met. We used to operate a large syndicate and we had a massive influence on the UK horse market. It went very well, which was lucky as the racecourse bookmaking did not.

 Things became harder in terms of getting enough on and we stopped working together so much in around 2004. They had so much money they may have lost the hunger, but I never tire of the battle. I went on my own and sat on a computer without moving for two years.

 Poker has interrupted from time to time since 2006 but I bet on a few horses every day, I have got back into it in a way more organised and bigger way in the last three years and I still love it.

 The ROI on horse tips that I've made public on Betting Emporium is 23.6%. Generally that would be a little higher than for all the bets I do, but not much.

 These are two I really like.

FINS

In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:

In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week... :  Hi Teddy, I have bet on horses virtually every day since I as around 17 (don't do that obviously kids). Between 21 (when I was at Uni) and 27 years old I went racing around 5 times a week and made my living from that. I know how those jockeys felt, I drove 5000 miles a week.  At the age of 29 I started working in spread betting as an odds-compiler. I did this for about 9 years but while I was doing it I also became a racecourse bookmaker.  About 12 years ago I started working with two guys who were both and are still both the two most talented gamblers I have ever met. We used to operate a large syndicate and we had a massive influence on the UK horse market. It went very well, which was lucky as the racecourse bookmaking did not.  Things became harder in terms of getting enough on and we stopped working together so much in around 2004. They had so much money they may have lost the hunger, but I never tire of the battle. I went on my own and sat on a computer without moving for two years.  Poker has interrupted from time to time since 2006 but I bet on a few horses every day, I have got back into it in a way more organised and bigger way in the last three years and I still love it.  The ROI on horse tips that I've made public on Betting Emporium is 23.6%. Generally that would be a little higher than for all the bets I do, but not much.  These are two I really like.
Posted by NChanning

wow, pro poker player, pro tipster, and Borussia Dortmund manager too

Thanks for the tips mr c..

TeddyBloat

Did not know any of that sounds fascinating, but a lot of work.

I often use the analogy that in  poker we act as a bookmaker when betting (not pricing draws out, not giving them odds to hit) and as a punter when calling, so you've got both bases covered there.

Any big hits with the syndicate where you spotted value? Remember a story about a liverpool betting syndicate spotting that bookies had underestimated the chance if a hole in one occuring in a round of golf and clearing up and permanently changing the market. Might be local legend, I dont really follow betting much.

Tikay10

In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:

In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week... : wow, pro poker player, pro tipster, and Borussia Dortmund manager too Thanks for the tips mr c..
Posted by FINS

Good spot!

goldnballz

In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:

If these do as well as the free tip you gave last week (won at 12/1), I might just have to marry you Neil.   
Posted by Tikay10

Had a few quid on it myself

Fingers crossed for todays tips!

Neil, what do you personally bet, per point, if you don't mind me asking? & what would be the maximum number of points you would reccommend betting in any one race/tip?

jobby762

What race are these horses in or has it already been? I know nothing about horse racing!

jobby762

Sorry just read it again Newbury at 3pm....

Tikay10

In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:

What race are these horses in or has it already been? I know nothing about horse racing!
Posted by jobby762

3pm @ Newbury, The Hennessy Gold Cup, which is one of the "big" races of the NH Season, & sort of starts the NH Season proper.

Here's a link to the Oddschecker page. I am allowed to post this, because "Oddschecker" is part of the SB&G family of companies. In fact, Ch 861 share an office with Oddschecker. They employ about 20 pimply beardy chaps, & one extremely pretty young lady there. I really must stop staring at her.


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/newbury/15:00/winner

goldnballz

In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:

In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week... : 3pm @ Newbury, The Hennessy Gold Cup, which is one of the "big" races of the NH Season, & sort of starts the NH Season proper. Here's a link to the Oddschecker page. I am allowed to post this, because "Oddschecker" is part of the SB&G family of companies. In fact, Ch 861 share an office with Oddschecker. They employ about 20 pimply beardy chaps, & one extremely pretty young lady there. I really must stop staring at her. http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/newbury/15:00/winner
Posted by Tikay10

Not sure many people realise this. Oddschecker.com is the nuts, easily my most visited website.

andipandy

Thank you Neil I've just backed both e/w so good luck us !! 

tomgoodun

A huge welcome to you Mr Channing, I look forward to reading your posts. You are always hugely entertaining and informative when on channel 861. I reckon you and Sir Tikay of Concretia are a match made in heaven, I would give his offer of "marriage" a good deal of thought now as for a moniker for your good self I reckon Lord Channing of Chingford slips off the tongue quite nicely. Keep up the good work and the very best of luck in your new role.

joesman1

Having seen the state of the going, and Nicholls having got one or two ready to win 1st time out this past two weeks, I've added Unioniste (who loves heavy) ew @ 20/1 to my ante post bets on Many Clouds, and today's  bet on Rocky Creek. 

Macacgirl1

Thank you Neil. I know nothing about horses, but have had a go on both too, just to join in.
Good luck everyone.

david666

Nice work joesman.