Great thread Neil & welcome!! I am not much into horses, but see a lot of my Scoop6 Syndicate colleagues are posting here, & enjoying! I pick normally One BIG Football bet, [my speciality], a week, to Hammer & to give me a propa sweat!! Been Krushing lately, and it would be ignorant of me not to pass on a Banker I think Bookies have missed, to the Community, hope you don't mind.... I wont ever do again if this goes down.. BUT Sunday, Post Roy-Keane rejuvenated Aston Villa are a BANKER home win, v Leicester, currently 2.38 on Sky. Have hammered it, with additional 2-0 & 3-0, at roughly 10-1 & 22-1 approx.! ....just saying like, GL with Horses Neil, All. The Hitman Posted by HITMAN_RV
Need Villa to score another for 3-1 @ 20/1 + Villa win ! ONE TIME!!
Well done Dave......and we have Man City next, happy days! ((( Posted by Brrrrrrr
Very Unlucky Mate, they showed a lot of Heart, the spirit of Jim Melrose!
Keeper Schmeical saved 3 certs too!! Both Teams playing way above league pos. at moment. tho I feel Benteke will start to impose on prem defences from here, rate him!!
As an ex bookmaker like yaself n . channing i said to a m8 of mine that bookamkers hate each way bets if there is an long odds on shot in the race as there is no edge for them he thinks i am joking but would u agree imo u cant lose u back something each way its a bet to nothing it will come in the 1st 3 win is a bonus placed get ya money back ? for instance 8 runners odds 1/5 fave 8/1 2nd fav 16/1 3rd fav 33/1 bar back the 2nd fav e/w easy money longterm i think there is money to be made why do u think they dnt offer u each way when theres a odd on shot in the race if 8 runners or more on course bookmakers Posted by IDONKCALLU
Spot on. Those bets are really good for the punter and terrible for a bookie. They are also really bad for your betting accounts and most bookies are not happy to take them.
Any hope for Leicester this week at sixes against City, Newcastle were sixes against Chelsea last week and City are playing worse than Chelsea and are missing a pretty decent player, cant quite put my finger on his name.
Any hope for Leicester this week at sixes against City, Newcastle were sixes against Chelsea last week and City are playing worse than Chelsea and are missing a pretty decent player, cant quite put my finger on his name. Posted by spiersey
I'm totally biased but you'd be mad to back against Man City vs pretty much anyone at the moment. I'd say in the last 6 games or so, we're playing just as well if not better than Chelsea. Aguero is a huge loss but we have quality replacements, and Silva and Kompany should both return today. Plus a fresh Toure who missed the game midweek.
I'm lumping on the Skybet special, City Chelsea and Southampton. The latter is a risk away at improving Burnley but it's basically 3/1 for the Saints to win as can't see the other 2 faltering.
FWIW, I already have my humble pie response ready should Leicester wallop us 5-3 like they did the Salford rags!
The Ladbroke at 3.30 at Ascot today is obviously ridiculously competitive. It does however, have 18-runners right now and providing 16 start the race we'll get 1/4 odds 1234 with all bookies...a rare Christmas present and a big edge to punters. Skybet make it even better by going 12345. They should be punished.
As with all these big field races you'd expect a decent pace so to narrow it down I'm going to focus on horses that look like staying further than the 2m trip as this could be hard work for any with stamina doubts especially if they get more rain. I like to go for stables in form and up and coming stables, form at Ascot would help but there aren't too many with that so my other main factor will be to concentrate on unexposed improvers...it's hard to run a dozen handicaps and have a enough up your sleeve to win one like this. As in all races ability to handle the ground is also high on my list, although at the moment I'm guessing it'll be nearer to soft than heavy.
I certainly respect Harry Fry the trainer of favourite Activial, but the horse was 12/1 a week ago, it isn't massively experienced and while that is great from a handicap point of view I might prefer it to be a year older.
My two start with Hello George a five year old trained by Phillip Hobbs who is in great form. Stays more than 2m and likes soft ground, this one jumps well and last time it was possibly not helped by running in a race where they took out half the hurdles due to the low sun. Decent price and definitely could be very well handicapped.
My favourite trainer right now is Dan Skelton. Like Harry Fry he is another former Nicholls assistant and they are both going to be the top two yards in the country very soon you'd have to think. He trains Shelford here, a horse that is lightly raced over hurdles, five years old, easily stays 2m4f and likes soft ground. With him staying all day it seems very hard to see this horse finishing out of the frame. The trainer worries a little bit about his jumping, he is a big rather than slick jumper, but surely he'll have worked on that. Just looks like a massively solid bet to me.
I'm having 8 points each-way Hello George at 14/1 1/4 1234 5 Great place terms with Skybet
I'm having 14 Points each-way Shelford at 6/1 1/4 1234 5 Great place terms with SkyBet.
I'm hoping that the going doesn't become too testing by the last race. If it's not then I believe Clondaw Warrior ew is the one. Though I have visions of Balgarry coming to the last still hard on the bit. 1000+ days since its last run?? Not a problem to this stable. And at the 2m 1 furlong stage of the Pertemps, it was still going like the likely winner.
My main worry would now be the ground drying out. My two will both really like a slog and a longer trip (a slog makes it like a longer race). As the ground dries the prices on mine drift and the sun is shining there.
I'm on now and very happy with Shelford particularly but I would have liked rain. I think Activial is in the same boat as us. Clondaw Warrior and Pine Creek would be two that want drying ground but I'm going to just stick with what I've done.
5 places means anything you bet is a decent bet each-way.
My main worry would now be the ground drying out. My two will both really like a slog and a longer trip (a slog makes it like a longer race). As the ground dries the prices on mine drift and the sun is shining there. I'm on now and very happy with Shelford particularly but I would have liked rain. I think Activial is in the same boat as us. Clondaw Warrior and Pine Creek would be two that want drying ground but I'm going to just stick with what I've done. 5 places means anything you bet is a decent bet each-way. Posted by NChanning
That 1st race looked tiring, definitely soft ground on the times.
I'm not just being a massive company man when I say that each-way 5 places with Skybet is an absolute Christmas present. Getting 1234 on this race is pretty generous.
I can see arguments for about 6 horses here but I've had a pretty biggish bet each-way on Hawkes Point and I wouldn't put you off.
Feels like a long time since I've backed a winner but I'm having a go today.
I bet Hello George at Ascot last time a race that was run on softish ground. I was worried that day that the horse might want a bit further and that the drying ground might not help. I thought he could be outpaced which I think that may have happened. Really though it was beaten because of a nasty mistake and he did stay on and looked a stayer.
Pricewise have tipped the horse and so we are struggling to beat 5/1, but I still see that as value. I would bet win-only as the trip is a doubt and if he doesn't stay then it will be unplaced. The number of runners makes win-only better too.
Feels like a long time since I've backed a winner but I'm having a go today. I bet Hello George at Ascot last time a race that was run on softish ground. I was worried that day that the horse might want a bit further and that the drying ground might not help. I thought he could be outpaced which I think that may have happened. Really though it was beaten because of a nasty mistake and he did stay on and looked a stayer. Pricewise have tipped the horse and so we are struggling to beat 5/1, but I still see that as value. I would bet win-only as the trip is a doubt and if he doesn't stay then it will be unplaced. The number of runners makes win-only better too. I'm having 10 points win Hello George. Posted by NChanning
Comments
Gamblers talk points, so more 'points' as to show how hot they feel about bet, less 'points' cooler they feel!!!
IE. one mans 'point' may be £1, another's may be £100, you see??
Keeper Schmeical saved 3 certs too!! Both Teams playing way above league pos. at moment.
tho I feel Benteke will start to impose on prem defences from here, rate him!!
Banker in Again!!
GL Brrrrrrrr & Leicester!!
Tough game being a bookie.
I'm lumping on the Skybet special, City Chelsea and Southampton. The latter is a risk away at improving Burnley but it's basically 3/1 for the Saints to win as can't see the other 2 faltering.
FWIW, I already have my humble pie response ready should Leicester wallop us 5-3 like they did the Salford rags!
I really love this race by the way...
The Ladbroke at 3.30 at Ascot today is obviously ridiculously competitive. It does however, have 18-runners right now and providing 16 start the race we'll get 1/4 odds 1234 with all bookies...a rare Christmas present and a big edge to punters. Skybet make it even better by going 12345. They should be punished.
As with all these big field races you'd expect a decent pace so to narrow it down I'm going to focus on horses that look like staying further than the 2m trip as this could be hard work for any with stamina doubts especially if they get more rain. I like to go for stables in form and up and coming stables, form at Ascot would help but there aren't too many with that so my other main factor will be to concentrate on unexposed improvers...it's hard to run a dozen handicaps and have a enough up your sleeve to win one like this. As in all races ability to handle the ground is also high on my list, although at the moment I'm guessing it'll be nearer to soft than heavy.
I certainly respect Harry Fry the trainer of favourite Activial, but the horse was 12/1 a week ago, it isn't massively experienced and while that is great from a handicap point of view I might prefer it to be a year older.
My two start with Hello George a five year old trained by Phillip Hobbs who is in great form. Stays more than 2m and likes soft ground, this one jumps well and last time it was possibly not helped by running in a race where they took out half the hurdles due to the low sun. Decent price and definitely could be very well handicapped.
My favourite trainer right now is Dan Skelton. Like Harry Fry he is another former Nicholls assistant and they are both going to be the top two yards in the country very soon you'd have to think. He trains Shelford here, a horse that is lightly raced over hurdles, five years old, easily stays 2m4f and likes soft ground. With him staying all day it seems very hard to see this horse finishing out of the frame. The trainer worries a little bit about his jumping, he is a big rather than slick jumper, but surely he'll have worked on that. Just looks like a massively solid bet to me.
I'm having 8 points each-way Hello George at 14/1 1/4 1234 5 Great place terms with Skybet
I'm having 14 Points each-way Shelford at 6/1 1/4 1234 5 Great place terms with SkyBet.
I'm on now and very happy with Shelford particularly but I would have liked rain. I think Activial is in the same boat as us. Clondaw Warrior and Pine Creek would be two that want drying ground but I'm going to just stick with what I've done.
5 places means anything you bet is a decent bet each-way.
I can see arguments for about 6 horses here but I've had a pretty biggish bet each-way on Hawkes Point and I wouldn't put you off.
The Race Neil is referring to is the Welsh Grand National, 2.35 Chepstow.
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/chepstow/14:35/winner
I bet Hello George at Ascot last time a race that was run on softish ground. I was worried that day that the horse might want a bit further and that the drying ground might not help. I thought he could be outpaced which I think that may have happened. Really though it was beaten because of a nasty mistake and he did stay on and looked a stayer.
Pricewise have tipped the horse and so we are struggling to beat 5/1, but I still see that as value. I would bet win-only as the trip is a doubt and if he doesn't stay then it will be unplaced. The number of runners makes win-only better too.
I'm having 10 points win Hello George.