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Crazy bad runs

ButtonoliButtonoli Member Posts: 25
edited February 2015 in Brags, Beats and Variance
I have played on Sky for 3+ years and enjoyed my experience. I have made moderate money which paid for a trip to Vegas which is great. I play £10 DYM most days averaging about 6 tables a day. I have good runs and bad runs like any poker player and I can easily turn bad runs into even worse runs by tilting. I have worked hard to stop that and I have become pretty good at avoiding it now. However over the last week or so I have been on a crazy bad run which has resulted in my bankroll halving. I have not done anything differently. I have played my good hands and folded my bad ones if my stack allowed. I have had the normal amount of good hands but I know that as soon as I see AK AA KK AQ etc I know that I will be out of the table against any hand that calls me. We have all seen bad beats a million times and I get that but this has been something different. I can predict that when I have kk aagainst A7 and A will hit. AA will lose to 98 off which will hit a straight I can see it happening. On the tables regular players are all saying this is what happens if you cash out a large sum. Is that right? I have only cashed out once over a year ago, but they all say the same. Can this be what we sign up for  - penalty bad runs for cashing out. Other players say that the software needs to encourage new or novice players by wins with rubbish hands so that they stay on the site and keep coming back - why? Can't they just find their own level like we all had to and work up the levels we got better?

This has shaken my faith. I am now looking at other sites not because I want to but I may as well get the easy runs from the software as a novice member and the sign on bonus. Sky, if you are reading this you need to rethink you policy. You have just lost a loyal member who has paid you approx. £2k in rake - is that what you want?

Does this experience ring any bells with anyone else. I would love to hear your thoughts. I know what some of you ate thinking - this is just another rant from some loser on a bad run and I would probably have said the same a little while ago. The money does not matter to me, it does not change my life but I want a level playing field. Comments please.
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Comments

  • SlykllistSlykllist Member Posts: 2,888
    edited January 2015
    Have you got one of these, I'm sure you'd find it useful.

    LINK
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  • aussie09aussie09 Member Posts: 8,033
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Crazy bad runs:
    I have played on Sky for 3+ years and enjoyed my experience. I have made moderate money which paid for a trip to Vegas which is great. I play £10 DYM most days averaging about 6 tables a day. I have good runs and bad runs like any poker player and I can easily turn bad runs into even worse runs by tilting. I have worked hard to stop that and I have become pretty good at avoiding it now. However over the last week or so I have been on a crazy bad run which has resulted in my bankroll halving. I have not done anything differently. I have played my good hands and folded my bad ones if my stack allowed. I have had the normal amount of good hands but I know that as soon as I see AK AA KK AQ etc I know that I will be out of the table against any hand that calls me. We have all seen bad beats a million times and I get that but this has been something different. I can predict that when I have kk aagainst A7 and A will hit. AA will lose to 98 off which will hit a straight I can see it happening. On the tables regular players are all saying this is what happens if you cash out a large sum. Is that right? I have only cashed out once over a year ago, but they all say the same. Can this be what we sign up for  - penalty bad runs for cashing out. Other players say that the software needs to encourage new or novice players by wins with rubbish hands so that they stay on the site and keep coming back - why? Can't they just find their own level like we all had to and work up the levels we got better? This has shaken my faith. I am now looking at other sites not because I want to but I may as well get the easy runs from the software as a novice member and the sign on bonus. Sky, if you are reading this you need to rethink you policy. You have just lost a loyal member who has paid you approx. £2k in rake - is that what you want? Does this experience ring any bells with anyone else. I would love to hear your thoughts. I know what some of you ate thinking - this is just another rant from some loser on a bad run and I would probably have said the same a little while ago. The money does not matter to me, it does not change my life but I want a level playing field. Comments please.
    Posted by Buttonoli

    yes.




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  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr Member Posts: 8,036
    edited January 2015

    Hi JimmyRiddle.

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  • SJspanky1SJspanky1 Member Posts: 620
    edited January 2015
    Cashout theory is definitely correct. You do and you are cursed with constant bad beats.

    However there IS a way to guarantee winning hands forever......

    Just keep depositing day after day, week after week. This confuses the software into doing the complete opposite to what it was designed for and it will dish you up lovely winning combinations across DYMs, MTTs and cash games.

    Keep this information to yourself please mate, we don't want EVERYBODY winning do we??
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  • NoseyBonkNoseyBonk Member Posts: 6,184
    edited January 2015
    Spoons.
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  • frascatifrascati Member Posts: 76
    edited January 2015
    I play with loads i deposit every week and loss every week!!
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  • andipandyandipandy Member Posts: 101
    edited January 2015
    Im struggling with these posts.....
    surely sky get the rake whoever wins ?
    why would a muti million pound company risk fraud charges over a 10 pound DYM?
    And why the **** can  I not be as witty as the normall replys to these posts!
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  • F_IvanovicF_Ivanovic Member Posts: 2,412
    edited January 2015
    Have you considered that you were lucky when you on your good runs? You are probably a winning player at the stake you play judging by the amount you have won, but in any form of gambling you will have good and bad runs. It's something called variance. I lost almost £2k in one week by running horrible. 80% of all in scenario's I was getting beat. Then the following week the opposite happened and I've now almost made back everything I'd lost.

    You will find the exact same thing happen whether you play live or on other sites. You can flip a coin 10 times in a row and it land on heads ten times. (I've done that) - this is just what happens when you go on a bad streak. 
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  • ButtonoliButtonoli Member Posts: 25
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Crazy bad runs:
    Im struggling with these posts..... surely sky get the rake whoever wins ? why would a muti million pound company risk fraud charges over a 10 pound DYM? And why the **** can  I not be as witty as the normall replys to these posts!
    Posted by andipandy
     Hi Andy, I felt the same as you until this bad run. Why do sky care? However another player mentioned that it is in Sky's interest to new/novice players happy. They play purely for fun, maybe log on after the pub for a bit of fun and make poor decisions and in theory lose, however they would soon get fed with losing and stop playing thus Sky would lose members and it would be harder to get a full table for the regulars who may then leave the site to go to a busier one. By "helping" the occasionals it keeps liquidity on the site.

    I am not suggesting it is fraud. I dont play slot machines but I know that they are set to a payout percentage which is below evens and that is not fraud. If we accept that the occasionals do well for a while then surely the sensible thing to do is to have multi sites and take advantage of the sign on bonus and "appear" to be an occasional player to the various sites software.

    I am not new to poker and I am of course fully aware of hot runs and cold runs some of which are fuelled by tilt, but this was just something very different. I even think that some of the guys that I play against daily sensed it. I commented on one recent occasion at the start of the table that I couldn't even win at 2 card poker with AA, a few hands later my AA was cracked by a 2 outer.
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  • ButtonoliButtonoli Member Posts: 25
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Crazy bad runs:
    Cashout theory is definitely correct. You do and you are cursed with constant bad beats. However there IS a way to guarantee winning hands forever...... Just keep depositing day after day, week after week. This confuses the software into doing the complete opposite to what it was designed for and it will dish you up lovely winning combinations across DYMs, MTTs and cash games. Keep this information to yourself please mate, we don't want EVERYBODY winning do we??
    Posted by SJspanky1
     You must work for Sky!
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  • VespaPXVespaPX Member Posts: 12,458
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Crazy bad runs:
    In Response to Re: Crazy bad runs :  Hi Andy, I felt the same as you until this bad run. Why do sky care? However another player mentioned that it is in Sky's interest to new/novice players happy. They play purely for fun, maybe log on after the pub for a bit of fun and make poor decisions and in theory lose, however they would soon get fed with losing and stop playing thus Sky would lose members and it would be harder to get a full table for the regulars who may then leave the site to go to a busier one. By "helping" the occasionals it keeps liquidity on the site. I am not suggesting it is fraud. I dont play slot machines but I know that they are set to a payout percentage which is below evens and that is not fraud. If we accept that the occasionals do well for a while then surely the sensible thing to do is to have multi sites and take advantage of the sign on bonus and "appear" to be an occasional player to the various sites software. I am not new to poker and I am of course fully aware of hot runs and cold runs some of which are fuelled by tilt, but this was just something very different. I even think that some of the guys that I play against daily sensed it. I commented on one recent occasion at the start of the table that I couldn't even win at 2 card poker with AA, a few hands later my AA was cracked by a 2 outer.
    Posted by Buttonoli
    And exactly how do Sky ascertain if someone is new/novice?
    They are totally different.
    May be new to Sky but has been playing for years elsewhere.

    If you are suggesting that Sky's software is biased towards a "new/novice" player then you are suggesting that it is fraud.

    Can't win with AA sounds like a little entitlement tilt to me.

    Gl with where ever you decide to play.

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  • ButtonoliButtonoli Member Posts: 25
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Crazy bad runs:
    In Response to Re: Crazy bad runs : And exactly how do Sky ascertain if someone is new/novice? They are totally different. May be new to Sky but has been playing for years elsewhere. If you are suggesting that Sky's software is biased towards a "new/novice" player then you are suggesting that it is fraud. Can't win with AA sounds like a little entitlement tilt to me. Gl with where ever you decide to play.
    Posted by VespaPX
    I did say that I couldn't win with AA in 2 card poker not hold em. So I disagree with the entitlement tilt comment. It was sarcasm.

    I think it would be easy for sophisticated software to analyse a players decisions to ascertain their playing ability and of course their playing frequency. After all it is by analysing playing styles and decisions that the software picks up collusion. It should not be beyond belief that this is possible. If it is not possible to spot the regular player who is new to a site then my theory of moving sites will work.
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  • Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 171,048
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Crazy bad runs:
    I have played on Sky for 3+ years and enjoyed my experience. I have made moderate money which paid for a trip to Vegas which is great. I play £10 DYM most days averaging about 6 tables a day. I have good runs and bad runs like any poker player and I can easily turn bad runs into even worse runs by tilting. I have worked hard to stop that and I have become pretty good at avoiding it now. However over the last week or so I have been on a crazy bad run which has resulted in my bankroll halving. I have not done anything differently. I have played my good hands and folded my bad ones if my stack allowed. I have had the normal amount of good hands but I know that as soon as I see AK AA KK AQ etc I know that I will be out of the table against any hand that calls me. We have all seen bad beats a million times and I get that but this has been something different. I can predict that when I have kk aagainst A7 and A will hit. AA will lose to 98 off which will hit a straight I can see it happening. On the tables regular players are all saying this is what happens if you cash out a large sum. Is that right? I have only cashed out once over a year ago, but they all say the same. Can this be what we sign up for  - penalty bad runs for cashing out. Other players say that the software needs to encourage new or novice players by wins with rubbish hands so that they stay on the site and keep coming back - why? Can't they just find their own level like we all had to and work up the levels we got better? This has shaken my faith. I am now looking at other sites not because I want to but I may as well get the easy runs from the software as a novice member and the sign on bonus. Sky, if you are reading this you need to rethink you policy. You have just lost a loyal member who has paid you approx. £2k in rake - is that what you want? Does this experience ring any bells with anyone else. I would love to hear your thoughts. I know what some of you ate thinking - this is just another rant from some loser on a bad run and I would probably have said the same a little while ago. The money does not matter to me, it does not change my life but I want a level playing field. Comments please.
    Posted by Buttonoli
    Morning Mr button.

    No, it is not right, & no, they don't "all say the same".

    There is no "policy" to rethink.

    Poker is an extraordinary game, & variance is an immensely powerful beast. It needs no help from software or anything else to work it's magic, which works both for & against us. 

    A glance at Sharkscoppe tells us you are a very successful player over a decent sample size - 2,000 games. You have - are - now suffering a 40 game downswing.

    40 games over 2,000 games means nothing, it's how poker works, Live & Online, always has, always will.
     
    Keep playing as you always have, & your results will be just fine.
     
    Downswings ARE not only very frustrating, but are quite perplexing, too. 

    I play little £5 & £10 PLO8 DYM's, which are extremely low variance. I'm not great, but I know the game well, & play with reasonable competenence, & have cashed in 3 from 5 WSOP Bracelet Events @ PLO8, so I'm not a complete fish. Ought to be easy for me to outlast 3 players from 6, eh?
     
    3 nights ago, I lost 11 out of 12 PLO8 DYM's, & I got my money in good on almost every occasion.
     
    This is poker. It's the beauty of the game. You just need to understand, thats how it works, there are no "policies", when poker & variance combine, they don't need intervention, they are all powerful. 

    Keep playing, (here or elsewhere, it matters not), & you will soon resume your long term impressive results.
     
    Changing sites, or pointing fingers, won't change a thing. Variance is a powerful beast, but it works both for us & against us.
     
    PS - on Tuesday of this week, you lost 9 out of 11. That hurts, of course it does. 

    On Wednesday of last week you WON 8 out of 11. Bet you enjoyed that, & rightly so.

    Same game. Same software. Same opponents. You remember one, & not the other. Why? 

    You are a good player, for sure - but you are NOT good enough to overcome variance on a bad day - not one player on earth is, even the big name Pros cannot beat variance when it turns against them.
     
    Hope your luck changes soon, but to be honest, a 40 game downswing is nothing, & it may even extend. 

    Look at your results over all 2,000 games, not 40.
     
    Good luck.  
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  • Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 171,048
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Crazy bad runs:
    In Response to Re: Crazy bad runs : I did say that I couldn't win with AA in 2 card poker not hold em. So I disagree with the entitlement tilt comment. It was sarcasm. I think it would be easy for sophisticated software to analyse a players decisions to ascertain their playing ability and of course their playing frequency. After all it is by analysing playing styles and decisions that the software picks up collusion. It should not be beyond belief that this is possible. If it is not possible to spot the regular player who is new to a site then my theory of moving sites will work.
    Posted by Buttonoli
    It makes a nice change to see it suggested that Sky Poker's software is "sophisticated"!

    I've heard it called many things, but rarely that.
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  • ButtonoliButtonoli Member Posts: 25
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Crazy bad runs:
    In Response to Crazy bad runs : Morning Mr button. No, it is not right, & no, they don't "all say the same". There is no "policy" to rethink. Poker is an extraordinary game, & variance is an immensely powerful beast. It needs no help from software or anything else to work it's magic, which works both for & against us.  A glance at Sharkscoppe tells us you are a very successful player over a decent sample size - 2,000 games. You have - are - now suffering a 40 game downswing. 40 games over 2,000 games means nothing, it's how poker works, Live & Online, always has, always will.   Keep playing as you always have, & your results will be just fine.   Downswings ARE not only very frustrating, but are quite perplexing, too.  I play little £5 & £10 PLO8 DYM's, which are extremely low variance. I'm not great, but I know the game well, & play with reasonable competenence, & have cashed in 3 from 5 WSOP Bracelet Events @ PLO8, so I'm not a complete fish. Ought to be easy for me to outlast 3 players from 6, eh?   3 nights ago, I lost 11 out of 12 PLO8 DYM's, & I got my money in good on almost every occasion.   This is poker. It's the beauty of the game. You just need to understand, thats how it works, there are no "policies", when poker & variance combine, they don't need intervention, they are all powerful.  Keep playing, (here or elsewhere, it matters not), & you will soon resume your long term impressive results.   Changing sites, or pointing fingers, won't change a thing. Variance is a powerful beast, but it works both for us & against us.   PS - on Tuesday of this week, you lost 9 out of 11. That hurts, of course it does.  On Wednesday of last week you WON 8 out of 11. Bet you enjoyed that, & rightly so. Same game. Same software. Same opponents. You remember one, & not the other. Why?  You are a good player, for sure - but you are NOT good enough to overcome variance on a bad day - not one player on earth is, even the big name Pros cannot beat variance when it turns against them.   Hope your luck changes soon, but to be honest, a 40 game downswing is nothing, & it may even extend.  Look at your results over all 2,000 games, not 40.   Good luck.  
    Posted by Tikay10
    Hi Tikay,

    Thank you for your post. I appreciate someone taking the time to sensibly put the counter arguement.

    I did not intend this post to sound like a winge of someone on a bad run. If it did then I got the tone of my post wrong. I was just seeking the experiences of other regular players to see what their thoughts were. Certainly there have been a number mention the cash out scenario, also the novice/newbie has been a common theme.

    I understand variance and also that as poker players we soon forget our good luck and focus on our bad luck. I recently read your blogs on tilt and thought they were excellent and I have tried to adopt some of the advice which has helped. Maybe that is why I have struggled with this 40 game run so much. Previous bad runs have been rationalised by me as being made worse by tilt, but not this time. I accept that bad beats do not only happen on line. In vegas last year i was all in with aa pre flop against kings with a king on the river, it happens we all know that. Glad I only play $1-$3.

    Ok, I've had my say and if it provoked a healthy discussion then great. I like Sky and do not want to leave. Maybe I will open another account to take advantage of the bonus and use the two in tandem for comparison purposes, a scientific test if you will.

    Once again thank you for your time and comments about my limited ability. I think I am most annoyed that this run has ruined by nice sharkscope graph!
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  • Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 171,048
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Crazy bad runs:
    In Response to Re: Crazy bad runs : Hi Tikay, Thank you for your post. I appreciate someone taking the time to sensibly put the counter arguement. I did not intend this post to sound like a winge of someone on a bad run. If it did then I got the tone of my post wrong. I was just seeking the experiences of other regular players to see what their thoughts were. Certainly there have been a number mention the cash out scenario, also the novice/newbie has been a common theme. I understand variance and also that as poker players we soon forget our good luck and focus on our bad luck. I recently read your blogs on tilt and thought they were excellent and I have tried to adopt some of the advice which has helped. Maybe that is why I have struggled with this 40 game run so much. Previous bad runs have been rationalised by me as being made worse by tilt, but not this time. I accept that bad beats do not only happen on line. In vegas last year i was all in with aa pre flop against kings with a king on the river, it happens we all know that. Glad I only play $1-$3. Ok, I've had my say and if it provoked a healthy discussion then great. I like Sky and do not want to leave. Maybe I will open another account to take advantage of the bonus and use the two in tandem for comparison purposes, a scientific test if you will. Once again thank you for your time and comments about my limited ability. I think I am most annoyed that this run has ruined by nice sharkscope graph!
    Posted by Buttonoli
    Thanks Button, & yes, I can understand why that sudden dip in your SS graph hurts.
     
    As to the enboldened sentence, I'm not sure if you are serious or not.

    If you are serious, please be aware, that would be fraud, & multi-accounting, & if you get caught, you risk having all the funds in both accounts confinscated. And as you have "flagged up" what you may do & why, you could not prove ignorance.  

    You don't need to mess about, you are just on a short (so far!) downswing.
     
    People say the daftest things, don't listen to them, just think it through logically.
     
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  • ButtonoliButtonoli Member Posts: 25
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Crazy bad runs:
    In Response to Re: Crazy bad runs : Thanks Button, & yes, I can understand why that sudden dip in your SS graph hurts.   As to the enboldened sentence, I'm not sure if you are serious or not. If you are serious, please be aware, that would be fraud, & multi-accounting, & if you get caught, you risk having all the funds in both accounts confinscated. And as you have "flagged up" what you may do & why, you could not prove ignorance.   You don't need to mess about, you are just on a short (so far!) downswing.   People say the daftest things, don't listen to them, just think it through logically.  
    Posted by Tikay10
    Hi Tikay,

    I think you misunderstood my comment about two accounts. I did not mean on Sky, I meant open an account with another platform and operate both in tandem. 

    Just something I thought about. I have played much more than usuall through this bad run almost entirely because of the Team Sky Promotion. My bad run has cost me approx £180 to chase £20 instead of £10 each week. Perhaps I am not as clever as I think I am!!!
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  • Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 171,048
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Crazy bad runs:
    In Response to Re: Crazy bad runs : Hi Tikay, I think you misunderstood my comment about two accounts. I did not mean on Sky, I meant open an account with another platform and operate both in tandem.  Just something I thought about. I have played much more than usuall through this bad run almost entirely because of the Team Sky Promotion. My bad run has cost me approx £180 to chase £20 instead of £10 each week. Perhaps I am not as clever as I think I am!!!
    Posted by Buttonoli
    Ahh, yes, I most certainly did misunderstand you, sorry.

    Been a pleasure to chat.
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  • yuranASSetyuranASSet Member Posts: 485
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Crazy bad runs:
    In Response to Crazy bad runs : Morning Mr button. No, it is not right, & no, they don't "all say the same". There is no "policy" to rethink. Poker is an extraordinary game, & variance is an immensely powerful beast. It needs no help from software or anything else to work it's magic, which works both for & against us.  A glance at Sharkscoppe tells us you are a very successful player over a decent sample size - 2,000 games. You have - are - now suffering a 40 game downswing. 40 games over 2,000 games means nothing, it's how poker works, Live & Online, always has, always will.   Keep playing as you always have, & your results will be just fine.   Downswings ARE not only very frustrating, but are quite perplexing, too.  I play little £5 & £10 PLO8 DYM's, which are extremely low variance. I'm not great, but I know the game well, & play with reasonable competenence, & have cashed in 3 from 5 WSOP Bracelet Events @ PLO8, so I'm not a complete fish. Ought to be easy for me to outlast 3 players from 6, eh?   3 nights ago, I lost 11 out of 12 PLO8 DYM's, & I got my money in good on almost every occasion.   This is poker. It's the beauty of the game. You just need to understand, thats how it works, there are no "policies", when poker & variance combine, they don't need intervention, they are all powerful.  Keep playing, (here or elsewhere, it matters not), & you will soon resume your long term impressive results.   Changing sites, or pointing fingers, won't change a thing. Variance is a powerful beast, but it works both for us & against us.   PS - on Tuesday of this week, you lost 9 out of 11. That hurts, of course it does.  On Wednesday of last week you WON 8 out of 11. Bet you enjoyed that, & rightly so. Same game. Same software. Same opponents. You remember one, & not the other. Why?  You are a good player, for sure - but you are NOT good enough to overcome variance on a bad day - not one player on earth is, even the big name Pros cannot beat variance when it turns against them.   Hope your luck changes soon, but to be honest, a 40 game downswing is nothing, & it may even extend.  Look at your results over all 2,000 games, not 40.   Good luck.  
    Posted by Tikay10

    Impressive! Very Impressive!

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  • yuranASSetyuranASSet Member Posts: 485
    edited January 2015
    I was just about to tell him about 'Weekend Theory'!

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