In Response to Re: Crazy bad runs : I understand variance and also that as poker players we soon forget our good luck and focus on our bad luck. Posted by Buttonoli
No, you don't. Many people think they understand variance - but then they go on a horrendous run and start blaming software and other things! Variance is just incredibly hard to fully understand. But, if you did understand it then no matter how bad your run was you would realise it was just bad variance!
In Response to Re: Crazy bad runs : No, you don't. Many people think they understand variance - but then they go on a horrendous run and start blaming software and other things! Variance is just incredibly hard to fully understand. But, if you did understand it then no matter how bad your run was you would realise it was just bad variance! Posted by F_Ivanovic
My National Lottery variance has got me on a 20 year downswing
I was musing over the unpredictabilty of variance a few days ago, & a maths geek ("Phantom66") Posted this.
It is, really, nothing to do with poker, it's just maths. But it perfectly applies to poker.
It explains these "clusters" of wins or losses.
"clusters" of 8 or 9 are perfectly normal. Nothing to do with software, or poker really. Just the facts. We cannot avoid, no matter what we do, these clusters.
Just maths innit?
Just have play with a spreadsheet (if you get stuck there's a forum thread for help with these things now)
Put in your win lose percentage as a variable, we know your winning so say its 60%, but you can play with this too start at 50% and move up in 2% steps.
Then start a column, keep it simple just 100 samples calc a random number between 0 and 1. If the result is >= your percentage set to 0 if its less set to 1. Obviously the total number of 1s should be around 60 and 0's around 40 but chances are one or two either side.
These are pure random numbers and the totals will smooth out closer to 60% and 40% over bigger samples.
The interesting bit (if anyone is still with me here) is the clusters - you cant blame good play bad play tiredness table selection - its just a random number generator and probability at play. Guarantee you will see lots of clusters maybe even up to 8/9 streaks of both 0's and 1's even at a 60/40 split. This feels so wrong over 100 but it will happen (mostly) and you can keep recalcing of course or build a sheet with more samples.
In Response to Re: Crazy bad runs : My National Lottery variance has got me on a 20 year downswing Posted by NoseyBonk
Is that not just because your calling with horrendous odds? Therefore a losing player? Variance comes into that game the same way it does for any casino house games! You only lose.
So even though I had a wee laugh at your joke. Poker is a different beast and your analogy doesn't really fit in this thread.
Sorry to be a killjoy, and I hate to be the guy...
I'll keep the peepers out for any other attempts to be funny and I'm sure you'll be consistently improving
Clusters of wins and losses are to be expected. This is taken from Mr SPT's article on Neil Channings betting site from last week.
"A mid-table team will usually win 36 per cent of their games, draw 28 per cent and lose 36 per cent. In other words, they will avoid defeat in 64 per cent of the games they play. I got out some old Rothmans annuals and flicked through the pages of teams who had finished halfway down their divisions. What I found was that each team I checked did indeed run up at least one sequence of eight or so games without a defeat and another of eight or so games without a victory."
In Response to Re: Crazy bad runs : Is that not just because your calling with horrendous odds? Therefore a losing player? Variance comes into that game the same way it does for any casino house games! You only lose. So even though I had a wee laugh at your joke. Poker is a different beast and your analogy doesn't really fit in this thread. Sorry to be a killjoy, and I hate to be the guy... I'll keep the peepers out for any other attempts to be funny and I'm sure you'll be consistently improving Posted by yuranASSet
Obviously, yes. I'll never get all serious on a poker forum. It was only an injection of a bit of light-hearted foolery
In Response to Re: Crazy bad runs : Obviously, yes. I'll never get all serious on a poker forum. It was only an injection of a bit of light-hearted foolery Posted by NoseyBonk
''It explains these "clusters" of wins or losses. "clusters" of 8 or 9 are perfectly normal. Nothing to do with software, or poker really. Just the facts. We cannot avoid, no matter what we do, these clusters. ''
Been running pretty awfully in MTT's lately (evil cluster) but I recently ran ridiculously well in DYM's (way above my normal %) (good cluster).
''It explains these "clusters" of wins or losses. "clusters" of 8 or 9 are perfectly normal. Nothing to do with software, or poker really. Just the facts. We cannot avoid, no matter what we do, these clusters. '' Been running pretty awfully in MTT's lately (evil cluster) but I recently ran ridiculously well in DYM's (way above my normal %) (good cluster). Posted by HENDRIK62
For those of you still interested my bad run has continued since I started this post. My run of 40 DYM's has become 50 and I have just lost another when I called all in pre flop with AA against 22 and a 2 came on the turn. I just don't what to do anymore. I am not sure it should be called a cluster more of a buster!
In Response to Re: Crazy bad runs : For those of you still interested my bad run has continued since I started this post. My run of 40 DYM's has become 50 and I have just lost another when I called all in pre flop with AA against 22 and a 2 came on the turn. I just don't what to do anymore. I am not sure it should be called a cluster more of a buster! Posted by Buttonoli
I will be very interedted when this reaches 1000 sample
As TJ said just last week was on a heater.
My serious advise bit:
If this bad run is hurting your bankrole / confidence or mood then drop down a level. Also (obvioulsy not on about you calling with AA) are you calling more than you are shoving with? Sometimes we can fall into trap of wanting to get the opponent to commit amd take a flip etc. I find in my DYM sessions winning hands pre flop normally sets me up. If I never get to showdown and have to show my cards I will always cash the DYM Worth looking at
Hope ends soon and you go back to heater days like last week
Hi I will be very interedted when this reaches 1000 sample As TJ said just last week was on a heater. My serious advise bit: If this bad run is hurting your bankrole / confidence or mood then drop down a level. Also (obvioulsy not on about you calling with AA) are you calling more than you are shoving with? Sometimes we can fall into trap of wanting to get the opponent to commit amd take a flip etc. I find in my DYM sessions winning hands pre flop normally sets me up. If I never get to showdown and have to show my cards I will always cash the DYM Worth looking at Hope ends soon and you go back to heater days like last week Posted by Nuggy962
Thanks for the advice, but if anything I think I am doing the opposite. I am so scared to get I am trying to win the pot at the earliest opportunity and therefore I am not getting paid off. But I agree if I never show then I usually cash (historically),anyway just doubled for the first time in 4 days ish. Could this be the end..............
In Response to Re: Crazy bad runs : Thanks for the advice, but if anything I think I am doing the opposite. I am so scared to get I am trying to win the pot at the earliest opportunity and therefore I am not getting paid off. But I agree if I never show then I usually cash (historically),anyway just doubled for the first time in 4 days ish. Could this be the end.............. Posted by Buttonoli
In Response to Re: Crazy bad runs : Thanks for the advice, but if anything I think I am doing the opposite. I am so scared to get I am trying to win the pot at the earliest opportunity and therefore I am not getting paid off. But I agree if I never show then I usually cash (historically),anyway just doubled for the first time in 4 days ish. Could this be the end.............. Posted by Buttonoli
Morning Mr Button.
Good to see you seem to be back on the upswing now. Hope you keep it going.
Really, a 40 game downswing is not out of the ordinary, & I'm sure you'll be just fine.
In Response to Re: Crazy bad runs : Morning Mr Button. Good to see you seem to be back on the upswing now. Hope you keep it going. Really, a 40 game downswing is not out of the ordinary, & I'm sure you'll be just fine. Good luck. Posted by Tikay10
Thanks for that - I wouldn't be a poker player if I didn't get grumpy from time to time!
Button, I really think you should see where you are after 1000-2000 games at least. 40-50 game swings are nothing to be honest. You also said that you are that scared of getting sucked out etc, youre overshoving hands etc. This will also contribute to negative results, if your game is solid you need to stick to what youre good at and have a look at where you are once youve reached a 1000 games at least.
As for "the cash out curse" I find that poor and/or inexperienced players are the people that mostly say this. Usually after a rare win they cash out then blame this when another bink fails to come their way.
im amazed we don't have to wait 5 minutes per street as the software works out who exactly has cashed out when, applied the big stack always wins logic, modified for player favoured by SKY, and then made sure its an action beat rather than just a simple outdraw.
Comments
Mr Button,
I was musing over the unpredictabilty of variance a few days ago, & a maths geek ("Phantom66") Posted this.
It is, really, nothing to do with poker, it's just maths. But it perfectly applies to poker.
It explains these "clusters" of wins or losses.
"clusters" of 8 or 9 are perfectly normal. Nothing to do with software, or poker really. Just the facts. We cannot avoid, no matter what we do, these clusters.
Nice backtracking OP, soon changed your tune eh.
"clusters" of 8 or 9 are perfectly normal. Nothing to do with software, or poker really. Just the facts. We cannot avoid, no matter what we do, these clusters. ''
Close the site, pronto.
Good to see you seem to be back on the upswing now. Hope you keep it going.
Really, a 40 game downswing is not out of the ordinary, & I'm sure you'll be just fine.
Good luck.
Whoever coded all that wants a medal!