A very disappoining weekend winning only 1 out of 6 bets. Luckily the biggest price was the only winner so that avoided a complete disaster.
As for the Cobblers, well it looks like another season of leaking goals for fun. We look ok going forward but it's amazing how many soft/comedy goals we give away.
I looked these bets & was a bit surprised as a few went against my statistics.
I wouldn't be backing Barnsley for a while for although they are mid table, they have been rather fortunate & I rank them currently 21st in L1. I have Shrewsbury 17th so always likely to be close. Annoyed at this as I had Barnsley as outsiders for promotion but with a young side, they should improve.
Rochdale & Bury were both good shouts and you were unlucky with Rochdale. Fleetwood are great spoilers so don't like betting against them. Bury have a really good team for this level and have been unlucky so far and they were great odds against high flying Walsall, who have outperformed expectations so far.
Not sure why you went against Wycombe. They are a lot better than Hartlepool, who after three wins are dropping to their expected position after three consecutive defeats.
I presume laying Swindon was a punt as they will be inconsistent as the new players might take time to gell although I still harbour hopes that they can get into the promotion frame despite a tough summer.
Not trying to be critical but more analytical & trying to follow your train of thought. It appears that you were looking for value where bookies were over rating certain teams (Swindon, Walsall, Wycombe) but I could be wrong there.
Always tough betting football in the first couple of months of the season.
Thanks for the post. Yes I'm looking to lay teams who I think are overrated and are too short in price. Wycombe for one, had 1 good season after years of bottom half finishes. Teams at this level largely rely on at least 2 or 3 loans to make up an important part of their starting 11. Wycombe benefitted from this last season.
I have next to no time to do any research each week, so I just tend to look for a team who look to me decent value to back, or lay a fave who I think is too short.
I've never really backed single bets in football before, I just used to do accas. So just seeing how I go at level stakes of £30 for the season. Breaking even would be a result, as it's just a bit of fun to follow the bets over a weekend.
Thanks for the post. Yes I'm looking to lay teams who I think are overrated and are too short in price. Wycombe for one, had 1 good season after years of bottom half finishes. Teams at this level largely rely on at least 2 or 3 loans to make up an important part of their starting 11. Wycombe benefitted from this last season. I have next to no time to do any research each week, so I just tend to look for a team who look to me decent value to back, or lay a fave who I think is too short. I've never really backed single bets in football before, I just used to do accas. So just seeing how I go at level stakes of £30 for the season. Breaking even would be a result, as it's just a bit of fun to follow the bets over a weekend. Posted by splashies
Long term, singles are more profitable because results are not that predictable and the bookies margin increases in multiples. Someone told me years ago to avoid bets that the bookies want you to bet on. They are always pushing accumulators and scorer/result bets because they make a lot of money from them & mug punters are seduced by the attractive odds.
I asked the question because some of your bets seemed to make sense then a couple of others seemed to go counter to the apparent strategy. I viewed the Wycombe match as being that Hartlepool were maybe over rated due to winning their first three matches. It's all opinions.
Probably worth finding "hot" teams to back and "cold" teams to lay.
I have to agree with Tiger on this one. Majority of your bets seem well thought out, but last week was a bit strange. I mean betting against Swindon? Pfft, what were you thinking!
I have to agree with Tiger on this one. Majority of your bets seem well thought out, but last week was a bit strange. I mean betting against Swindon? Pfft, what were you thinking! Posted by FlashFlush
Maybe you have some inside information on Swindon, which might be useful but they strike me as a side that could beat anyone in this division on their day but they aren't consistent enough to be relied upon. This comes in a large part from such a large overhaul of the squad from last season.
Credit has to be given to Cooper and his scouts. Every year we seem to start the year with a new squad and every year, these youngsters are kind of nobodies and I fear the season ahead. Then year on year they keep performing and our players keep going to Championship and Premiership teams. We get a lot of loans in from Liverpool (Thanks to having Brendon Rodgers' son in our team) and also some from Spurs.
I think Ajose and Thomas are good signings and we are definitely play off contenders this year. We're playing great football and parent clubs want their loanees to come to us and learn proper football.
Tonight Reading v Ipswich BACK IPSWICH @ 3.70 Saturday Palace v Man City LAY MAN CITY @ 1.66 Charlton v Rotherham BACK CHARLTON @ 2.10 QPR v Forest BACK QPR @ 1.96 Crewe v Millwall LAY MILLWALL @ 2.24 Oldham v Pboro BACK OLDHAM @ 2.66 Scunthorpe v Coventry BACK COVENTRY @ 2.60 Cambridge v Leyton Orient BACK CAMBRIDGE @3.30 - 3.50 Posted by splashies
At the risk of looking dumb.........what do you mean when you say "lay man city"? How does that work?
In Response to Re: Another betting diary : At the risk of looking dumb.........what do you mean when you say "lay man city"? How does that work? Posted by waller02
I'm not into betting but I presume it means backing Man C 'not' to win
In Response to Re: Another betting diary : Yeah was thinking that, but isnt that the same as backing palace, or does it mean the game can also be a draw? Posted by waller02
As far as I know if result is HOME win or DRAW it's a winning bet
Ahhh, a full week of fixtures again after the international break. I've missed this Treble - £15 (plus £5 free bet) - Potential returns £115 Charlton v Rotherham - 1/1 Middlesbrough v MK Dons - 4/7 Sheffield United v Bury - 10/11 Treble - £25 - Potential returns £84.18 Gillingham v Blackpool - 4/7 Portsmouth v Barnet - 4/6 Arsenal v Stoke - 2/7 Treble - £9.74 - Potential returns £269.52 Portsmouth -1 Gillingham -1 Sheffield United -1 Start balance - +£24.94 Total staked - £49.74 Posted by FlashFlush
Comments
£10 double Walsall and Gillingham win
£10 treble Walsall, Montrose over 2.5 and Southend under 2.5
Be lucky
Edit. could have done with out that last minute goal.
Hope that's not an omen of things to come.
Not trying to be critical but more analytical & trying to follow your train of thought. It appears that you were looking for value where bookies were over rating certain teams (Swindon, Walsall, Wycombe) but I could be wrong there.