notice that button can still open profitably even if we defend properly.
i posted that as you seemed to suggest that our defending properly and the button being + EV were mutually exclusive.
The button is playing wide, so not easily folding (to passivity) and not playing +EV if BB decides to defend PROPERLY 30-40% of steals .
anyway i do not agree that playing aggressively into polar or a draw + strong value range minimises losses comapred to check-calling. and i'm still unsure as to why you think that is the case.
again cash aint my game, but i cannot see how that can be the case, no do i agree that minimising losses is our goal with Q9 on K96xx against a villain who we believe is going to bluff three streets a high % of the time.
theoretically post flop at any decsion point the ev of folding is zero.
therefore if your goal is to minimise losses you just fold.
notice that button can still open profitably even if we defend properly. i posted that as you seemed to suggest that our defending properly and the button being + EV were mutually exclusive. The button is playing wide, so not easily folding (to passivity) and not playing +EV if BB decides to defend PROPERLY 30-40% of steals . anyway i do not agree that playing aggressively into polar or a draw + strong value range minimises losses comapred to check-calling. and i'm still unsure as to why you think that is the case. again cash aint my game, but i cannot see how that can be the case, no do i agree that minimising losses is our goal with Q9 on K96xx against a villain who we believe is going to bluff three streets a high % of the time. theoretically post flop at any decsion point the ev of folding is zero. therefore if your goal is to minimise losses you just fold. Posted by TeddyBloat
"notice that button can still open profitably even if we defend properly. i posted that as you seemed to suggest that our defending properly and the button being + EV were mutually exclusive."
Hero V villain it is of course mutually exclusive. Hero has a read! He thinks he is being expolitative v This particular BTN. Hero also believes that calling 3 streets against this Btn is +EV. I disagree, you don't. That's fine.
Honestly most people on sky play so tight even from the BTN that I would be folding or 3b Q9o to a 3x open. (mostly folding)
I'm wary of calling a PSB OTT but there are a lot of draws out there. Not a lot of players 3 barrel bluff all too often particularly when all the draws miss so I'm probably folding river.
the only reason we cant call a river bet is if we feel his 3 barrel range is too weighted to value.
the only reason for not folding turn is if we feel his turn betting range contains enough bluffs for us to be + ev compared to folding.
so by x/c turn we simply x/f river and it has cost us one bet. we dont believe he will bet all his air, so when we check river we win when he checks back. we fold when he bets river.
why are we raising turn?
if we cant call a river bet, it's fine to x/fold - 1 bet is the cost
when we x/r turn it has cost us substantially more than one bet to see the river.
the only reason we cant call a river bet is if we feel his 3 barrel range is too weighted to value. the only reason for not folding turn is if we feel his turn betting range contains enough bluffs for us to be + ev compared to folding. so by x/c turn we simply x/f river and it has cost us one bet. we dont believe he will bet all his air, so when we check river we win when he checks back. we fold when he bets river. why are we raising turn? if we cant call a river bet, it's fine to x/fold - 1 bet is the cost when we x/r turn it has cost us substantially more than one bet to see the river. Posted by TeddyBloat
Did you notice that one of the two lines I suggested was to donk turn? Not check/fold.
If our fold to cbet against wide villain is below 40% and he bets 2/3's pot then it stops him making an instant profit. - So this is why we call flop. If we check, fold turn, or call, check, fold river, then we have defeated the purpose of expanding our range. We can't do both, we can't say we will expand our range then play fit or fold post flop. It will haemorrage more money. We need to play back and do it frequently.
We're also looking at the hand from the perspective that the OP has called the river anyway.
As played betting goes - Villain makes it 3bb, Hero calls 2bb - Pot = 6.5bb
Flop - V bets 5BB - H Calls - Pot = 17bb (starting to round them up)
Turn - V bets 17bb - H Calls - Pot = 51bb
River - V bets 36bb - H Calls
Hero commits 60bb to find out if he's good or bad. If...
Turn - H bets 17bb (folding out wide range and denying V the chance of improving) V either folds or calls and we increase the chance of check/check river. Hero commits 24bb to find out if he's good or bad. Or if...
Turn - V bets 17bb - Hero can raise between 34-52bb, gets same info and it's still cheaper than calling river bet.
Donking turn is the better line since we have decided to expand out defending range. Check raising turn is the better line if, like the hero, you have already decided that your making a river call when you don't think that the river hits Villains perceived range.
Weird 3/4, pot, 3/4! As played I would fold the turn. While calling flop is standard, you could check raise the flop, and continue betting ott on a good number of cards. Posted by LARSON7
Also playable because the board is wet but I'd prefer to do that if we don't catch a piece of the flop, maybe better with straight draws.
Honestly most people on sky play so tight even from the BTN that I would be folding or 3b Q9o to a 3x open. (mostly folding) I'm wary of calling a PSB OTT but there are a lot of draws out there. Not a lot of players 3 barrel bluff all too often particularly when all the draws miss so I'm probably folding river. Posted by F_Ivanovic
Mostly true but 50NL seems to be the widest and some regs probably opening close to 100% with the min raise.
In Response to Re: HH analysis : Did you notice that one of the two lines I suggested was to donk turn? Not check/fold. If our fold to cbet against wide villain is below 40% and he bets 2/3's pot then it stops him making an instant profit. - So this is why we call flop. If we check, fold turn, or call, check, fold river, then we have defeated the purpose of expanding our range. We can't do both, we can't say we will expand our range then play fit or fold post flop. It will haemorrage more money. We need to play back and do it frequently. We're also looking at the hand from the perspective that the OP has called the river anyway. As played betting goes - Villain makes it 3bb, Hero calls 2bb - Pot = 6.5bb Flop - V bets 5BB - H Calls - Pot = 17bb (starting to round them up) Turn - V bets 17bb - H Calls - Pot = 51bb River - V bets 36bb - H Calls Hero commits 60bb to find out if he's good or bad. If... Turn - H bets 17bb (folding out wide range and denying V the chance of improving) V either folds or calls and we increase the chance of check/check river. Hero commits 24bb to find out if he's good or bad. Or if... Turn - V bets 17bb - Hero can raise between 34-52bb, gets same info and it's still cheaper than calling river bet. Donking turn is the better line since we have decided to expand out defending range. Check raising turn is the better line if, like the hero, you have already decided that your making a river call when you don't think that the river hits Villains perceived range. Posted by yuranASSet
When villain shoves turn with his bluffs what do we do? Imo raising turn here is terrible
In Response to Re: HH analysis : When villain shoves turn with his bluffs what do we do? Imo raising turn here is terrible Posted by mrleemr1
Villain folds out most of his bluffs if he is as wide as you suggest. Anyway, like I said, you clearly made your mind up to call river on the turn. So why is it terrible that he shoves our raise on the turn if you think your ahead?
The point I made several times is to do with stategy against a wide opener. You can't call wide and play fit or fold.
Villain maybe triple B's because you have showed weakness. It's nice that you talked yourself into it but you can't call the river. So how is raising turn terrible compared to check calling river?
Villain folds out most of his bluffs if he is as wide as you suggest. Anyway, like I said, you clearly made your mind up to call river on the turn. So why is it terrible that he shoves our raise on the turn if you think your ahead?
this is just incorrect thinking.
the only reason to c/c turn and river is if you think he is too weighted to air when he bets turn and river.
that is: you are ahead of his 'betting when checked to range' [well techinically you have enough equity v that range to make calling > folding - you dont need to be ahead equity wise to call even a river bet]
having the required equity v a 'bet when checked to range' is not the same thing as having the equity to call v his 'shove over a turn check-raise range'
the ranges arent the same.
as you say, you fold out villains bluffs when you play aggressively against them on the turn.
having a c/c, c/c, c/f range is not a leak btw.
not having a c/c, c/c, c/f range likely is.
If our fold to cbet against wide villain is below 40% and he bets 2/3's pot then it stops him making an instant profit. - So this is why we call flop.
we call flop because it yields a higher ev than folding or check-raising.
auto-profit calculations are one of the most misunderstood and misapplied of all poker math.
we dont want to make villain's air indifferent between betting and open folding.
even being balanced / gto orienated we dont want to make villains bluffs 0ev as he can then unilaterally increase the EV of his air by checking it and increase his overall EV.
there will be asymetric textures where villian can min-bet his ENTIRE range and we have to fold the vast majority of our range.
Step by step my thoughts. Pre-flop q9o calling here as button range will be wide, we have the best hand often enough and its not a bad hand to play vs entire range. Flop he is going to c-bet here a very large % of the time with a lot of equity in the hand still. I have 2nd pair and best hand here a lot of the time, he could also be value betting a worst hand. Turn brings a ton more draws, hes gonna continue here with all h draws, C draws straight draws, will continue some of the time with gutshots and maybe sometimes A high no draw. Hes obviously gonna bet all sets/2pairs/overpair/tp maybe QQ/JJ/TT A9. However he decides to bet pot. This means I can narrow his range down as he wouldn't take this line with thin value hands and basic draws. I don't think he does this all the time with just flush draws. Perhaps half the time does it with Axhh = 4 Axcc = 4 (not including A6/4hhcc Non-Showdown heart draws - 78hh T8hh T7hh 73hh 75hh 85hh 23hh 52hh JThh qthh qjhh = 11 Non-Showdown Club draws - JTcc T8cc T7cc 78cc 75cc 85cc 52cc 32cc 53cc = 9 Value hands = KK x 3 66 x 3 99x 1 = 7 I personally don't think he takes this line with AK KQ AA. So for value im including k9x6 k6x9 96x6 k4x9 =30 He also has 6xcc 9xhh hands if we say 65cc 67cc 68cc T6cc A6cc = 5 I got 9hearts so none them River is complete brick means nothing. He bets 75% pot, Assuming the above inputs we have: Value = 37 Bluffs = 25 +half Axcc/hh non-showdown 8 = 33 I am really tired and doing this by hand so I may be thinking stupid or may have missed out quite bit. Lemme know thoughts Posted by mrleemr1
Do you have any reads on villain or are you just making up these ranges? 52s,73s not always in opening ranges for example. No idea why he cant have AA,AK etc
Pre: Its a fold readless for me. He prob opens wide from btn,but playing Q9o oop negates that imo. You may have good direct odds v wide btn opening range, but implied odds much more important in thuis situation
Flop is standard
Turn: I fold to the full pot bet. Generally this indicates strength ime, we may face another pot bet on river. Also villain will sometimes check back draws or made hands he doesnt think he can get 3 streets of value from
River: Fold. Dont know why you are deciding his river betting range is same as turn betting range
Also neither turn or river great barrell cards for him
I would fold pre - other than that as played calling....
you not going to win much on playing with just your perceived equity.
what do you do on 28Jr or Kh7h2s....your going to have to rep a lot of your perceived range on a lot of flops and run outs to make this profitbale - and yes versus laggy barrelers you can make this +EV but your going to have to be spot on with your reads - you also need to have some idea how villian responds to 3 bets ip - if they fold too much then you could incoprorate this option
As played betting goes - Villain makes it 3bb, Hero calls 2bb - Pot = 6.5bb Flop - V bets 5BB - H Calls - Pot = 17bb (starting to round them up)
Turn - V bets 17bb - H Calls - Pot = 51bb River - V bets 36bb - H Calls Hero commits 60bb to find out if he's good or bad.
If... Turn - H bets 17bb (folding out wide range and denying V the chance of improving) V either folds or calls and we increase the chance of check/check river. Hero commits 24bb to find out if he's good or bad.
Or if... Turn - V bets 17bb - Hero can raise between 34-52bb, gets same info and it's still cheaper than calling river bet.
Donking turn is the better line since we have decided to expand out defending range. Check raising turn is the better line if, like the hero, you have already decided that your making a river call when you don't think that the river hits Villains perceived range.
You neglect to mention the scenario of what happens when we raise turn and villain either 3b or flat... and when he flats, the size of the pot (and thus subsequent bet) from villain is going to be much larger.
Also, if we are raising the turn with Q9 here then that hands are we flatting? Villain can very easily 3barrel us with 100% of his range because we just don't have any bluff-catchers in our range by the river.
Listen to the advice of other posters when they tell you that c/r turn is just really bad.
Dont understand the fold pre comments if were folding q9 vs button over 100bbs deep then button should raise 100% of hands and print money Posted by bearlyther
Except he's not raising 100% of hands. If he were to start raising 100% of hands then ofc we are never folding Q9. Playing exploitatively means you have to re-adjust all the time.
Dont understand the fold pre comments if were folding q9 vs button over 100bbs deep then button should raise 100% of hands and print money Posted by bearlyther
Except he's not raising 100% of hands. If he were to start raising 100% of hands then ofc we are never folding Q9. Playing exploitatively means you have to re-adjust all the time.
Hero has given no info to suggest that villan is opening tight. Sure if hes tight we can adjust our defending frequency some what but id still be very surprised if q9 shouldnt be included in our defending range bb vs button even vs a tight range.
Comments
i posted that as you seemed to suggest that our defending properly and the button being + EV were mutually exclusive.
again cash aint my game, but i cannot see how that can be the case, no do i agree that minimising losses is our goal with Q9 on K96xx against a villain who we believe is going to bluff three streets a high % of the time.
theoretically post flop at any decsion point the ev of folding is zero.
therefore if your goal is to minimise losses you just fold.
the only reason for not folding turn is if we feel his turn betting range contains enough bluffs for us to be + ev compared to folding.
so by x/c turn we simply x/f river and it has cost us one bet. we dont believe he will bet all his air, so when we check river we win when he checks back. we fold when he bets river.
why are we raising turn?
if we cant call a river bet, it's fine to x/fold - 1 bet is the cost
when we x/r turn it has cost us substantially more than one bet to see the river.
Weird 3/4, pot, 3/4!
As played I would fold the turn.
While calling flop is standard, you could check raise the flop, and continue betting ott on a good number of cards.
Also, if we are raising the turn with Q9 here then that hands are we flatting? Villain can very easily 3barrel us with 100% of his range because we just don't have any bluff-catchers in our range by the river.