In Response to Re: Absolute joke. : You think the way that hand panned out is likely to happen 20% of the time? Maths isn't your strong point then? Posted by jimm338
I once finished 4th in a national maths competition, I'd say my maths isn't to shabby
The runout is not irrelevant you absolute moron, are you not understanding what I'm saying or are you just stupid? The percentage of him winning the hand changes with every stage of the hand, after the flop he's no longer 20% and even lower after the turn. Posted by jimm338
If you want to look at it like that, then you were lucky that he didn't hit his jack on any of the first 4 cards, as he will 16% of the time.
Breaking it down and fixating on these kind of things is going to drive you nuts if you continue to play poker.
Just worry about what you can control will be the best advice.
-----
Say you have a bag of 100 balls.
99 are red.
1 is black.
You are challenged to pick a red ball from the bag at random, and you reach in and do so.
You have been lucky to complete your challenge.
99% of the time you will be successful, but over your sample of 1 trial, you have been successful 100% of the time, a number which is more than 99% and therefore you are running above expectation (being lucky)
If you re-set the bag, and repeat an infinite number of times (it will be fun!) then your results will regress to what they should be, you will pick red balls out 99% of the time.
The key is the sample size.
You could easily pick the black ball out 4/5 times in the first 100 trials. Which would be unlucky, but it will happen sometimes.
Just like the 2 outer (jack) can come on the river 100% of the time over a sample of 1 or 2 trials.
Do it a Million Gazillion, Bajillion times, and you will get more accurate and expected results.
----
fwiw you can apply this to everything in life, everytime you drive your car and safely reach your destination you have been lucky.
You should expect to crash like 0.00000000001% of the time. "As played" (or as driven) over that sample of 1 journey, you've crashed 0% of the time.
Everytime you have a takeaway and don't get food poisoning, you have been lucky. (I run particuarly good in this area myself over a huge sample)
In Response to Re: Absolute joke. : If you want to look at it like that, then you were lucky that he didn't hit his jack on any of the first 4 cards, as he will 16% of the time. Breaking it down and fixating on these kind of things is going to drive you nuts if you continue to play poker. Just worry about what you can control will be the best advice. ----- Say you have a bag of 100 balls. 99 are red. 1 is black. You are challenged to pick a red ball from the bag at random, and you reach in and do so. You have been lucky to complete your challenge. 99% of the time you will be successful, but over your sample of 1 trial, you have been successful 100% of the time, a number which is more than 99% and therefore you are running above expectation (being lucky) If you re-set the bag, and repeat an infinite number of times (it will be fun!) then your results will regress to what they should be, you will pick red balls out 99% of the time. The key is the sample size. You could easily pick the black ball out 4/5 times in the first 100 trials. Which would be unlucky, but it will happen sometimes. Just like the 2 outer (jack) can come on the river 100% of the time over a sample of 1 or 2 trials. Do it a Million Gazillion, Bajillion times, and you will get more accurate and expected results. ---- fwiw you can apply this to everything in life, everytime you drive your car and safely reach your destination you have been lucky. You should expect to crash like 0.00000000001% of the time. "As played" (or as driven) over that sample of 1 journey, you've crashed 0% of the time. Everytime you have a takeaway and don't get food poisoning, you have been lucky. (I run particuarly good in this area myself over a huge sample) For the same reasons. run better, mannnn Posted by DOHHHHHHH
If you look at it in isolation, when you get pocket aces all-in against 72o preflop and win you've been moderately lucky in that particular hand, running 13% above expectation.
Your aces had an 87% chance of winning. You hit 100%.
If you consider yourself to be super-unlucky the one in eight times your aces lose in this situation then you should also consider yourself a little lucky when they win too.
The Trouble with statistic's is the proportion of players that don't use then out weigh the non players that do use then, this resulting in tilt on a massive scale making bad player good and good player better. splutter!
In Response to Re: Absolute joke. : If you want to look at it like that, then you were lucky that he didn't hit his jack on any of the first 4 cards, as he will 16% of the time. Breaking it down and fixating on these kind of things is going to drive you nuts if you continue to play poker. Just worry about what you can control will be the best advice. ----- Say you have a bag of 100 balls. 99 are red. 1 is black. You are challenged to pick a red ball from the bag at random, and you reach in and do so. You have been lucky to complete your challenge. 99% of the time you will be successful, but over your sample of 1 trial, you have been successful 100% of the time, a number which is more than 99% and therefore you are running above expectation (being lucky) If you re-set the bag, and repeat an infinite number of times (it will be fun!) then your results will regress to what they should be, you will pick red balls out 99% of the time. The key is the sample size. You could easily pick the black ball out 4/5 times in the first 100 trials. Which would be unlucky, but it will happen sometimes. Just like the 2 outer (jack) can come on the river 100% of the time over a sample of 1 or 2 trials. Do it a Million Gazillion, Bajillion times, and you will get more accurate and expected results. ---- fwiw you can apply this to everything in life, everytime you drive your car and safely reach your destination you have been lucky. You should expect to crash like 0.00000000001% of the time. "As played" (or as driven) over that sample of 1 journey, you've crashed 0% of the time. Everytime you have a takeaway and don't get food poisoning, you have been lucky. (I run particuarly good in this area myself over a huge sample) For the same reasons. run better, mannnn Posted by DOHHHHHHH
What an amazing answer. I read your diary and am blown away how you keep coming up with new and interesting stuff..
Isn't the real problem with this thread the lack of pictures?
How am I supposed to empathise with this poor man's pain if I can't go through exactly what he did?
(clearly bad beat threads are extremely tedious and should generally be snap-deleted by a moderator within seconds but actually this one was quite good as it contained...a /> humour b> some pretty good advice on thinking about how poker works).
It wouldn't really be a very good game if the best hand pre-flop was 100% guaranteed to win every hand though.
I've had absolutely no luck on here all week. The 7:30pm freerolls I've finished just out the money both nights and had some very bad luck along the way but tonight takes the biscuit, not least because I was in a good position. No surprise that the guy with more chips gets the luck, it's getting sad when I can predict the river so frequently, not one ounce of me was surprised he hit his jack on the river. Posted by jimm338
We all get bad runs;but look on the bright side-you might've been playing with your own money.That would be proper conspiracy material! Sky eh? What a fit-up, Fartin, Martin Centre-Partin
Isn't the real problem with this thread the lack of pictures? How am I supposed to empathise with this poor man's pain if I can't go through exactly what he did? (clearly bad beat threads are extremely tedious and should generally be snap-deleted by a moderator within seconds but actually this one was quite good as it contained...a /> humour b /> some pretty good advice on thinking about how poker works). It wouldn't really be a very good game if the best hand pre-flop was 100% guaranteed to win every hand though. Posted by NChanning
Hi Bad Beat It would be a brilliant game if all my pre-hands were %100 winners, Merry Xmas Neil, (to you and your family)
Comments
Oh, Cant believe I missed this debate.
A proper popcorn and Fanta thread too.
If you re-set the bag, and repeat an infinite number of times (it will be fun!) then your results will regress to what they should be, you will pick red balls out 99% of the time.
Your aces had an 87% chance of winning. You hit 100%.
If you consider yourself to be super-unlucky the one in eight times your aces lose in this situation then you should also consider yourself a little lucky when they win too.
What an amazing answer. I read your diary and am blown away how you keep coming up with new and interesting stuff..
Ur a star fella.. Keep it up. #impressed
Isn't the real problem with this thread the lack of pictures?
How am I supposed to empathise with this poor man's pain if I can't go through exactly what he did?
(clearly bad beat threads are extremely tedious and should generally be snap-deleted by a moderator within seconds but actually this one was quite good as it contained...a /> humour b> some pretty good advice on thinking about how poker works).
It wouldn't really be a very good game if the best hand pre-flop was 100% guaranteed to win every hand though.
Sky eh? What a fit-up,
Fartin, Martin Centre-Partin
It would be a brilliant game if all my pre-hands were %100 winners,
Merry Xmas Neil,
(to you and your family)