Independent Variance Research

chilling · June 2016

The paint isnt dry yet and the grass keeps growing.

You could do this for the rest of your life with the same or very similar results.

goldon · June 2016

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

The paint isnt dry yet and the grass keeps growing.
Posted by chilling

The Dandelion's have gone it's the daisy's now. ?

AyrGraeme · June 2016

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

Everyone missing the most noteable finding of the research. How tf do you get it in good so often? Preach .......
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

That one is fairly easy mate. You ever play the 2p/4p tables on here??

AyrGraeme · June 2016

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

The paint isnt dry yet and the grass keeps growing. You could do this for the rest of your life with the same or very similar results.
Posted by chilling

Yep. Hopefully after about 6 months there will be enough evidence to put the conspiracy theorists to bed.

MattBates · June 2016

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research : Yep. Hopefully after about 6 months there will be enough evidence to put the conspiracy theorists to bed.
Posted by AyrGraeme

Do you actually believe you will have a significant sample size in 6months?

AyrGraeme · June 2016

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research : Do you actually believe you will have a significant sample size in 6months?
Posted by MattBates

For what I am looking at, yes I will have.

AyrGraeme · June 2016

1. 82% - L

2. 10% - W

3. 72% - L

4. 73% - W (73-23)

5. 47% - W (47-50)

6. 77% - W

7. 45% - W

8. 25% - L

9. 60% - W

10. 95% - W

11. 58% - L *3 way 58-27-12-(3)

12. 71% - W

13. 52% - L *3 way 52-31-13-(4)

14. 70% - W

15. 80% - W

16. 47% - L

17. 66% - W

18. 91% - W

19. 90% - L

20. 62% - W *3 way all in 62-12-26

21. 72% - W (72-24)

22. 45% - L

23. 59% - L

24. 81% - W (81-19)

25. 95% - L

26. 96% - W

27. 81% - W

28. 93% - W (93-0)

29. 79% - L *3 way all in 79-21-0

30. 54% - L

31. 13% - L (13-82)

32. 86% - W

33. 43% - L (43-56)

34. 9% - L

35. 46% - W

36. 95% - W

37. 91% - W

38. 43% - L

39. 38% - W (38-61)

40. 91% - W

41. 7% - L (7-80)

42. 83% - W

43. 70% - W

44. 81% - W

45. 82% - W

46. 98% - W (3 way all in 98-1-1)

47. 7% - X (7-68)

48. 76% - W (3 way all in 76-14-10)

49. 89% - L

50. 89% - W

51. 63% - L

52. 72% - W (72-23)

53. 54% - W

54. 5% - L

55. 82% - W (82-17)

56. 93% - W (93-6)

57. 74% - W (74-23)

58. 99% - W

59. 95% - W

60. 27% - L

61. 91% - W

62. 47% - L (3 way all-in 47-(3)-21-29) W side pot v 21

63. 86% - W

64. 46% - L

65. 9% - L

66. 99% - W

67. 82% - W

68. 47% - W

69. 65% - W

70. 68% - W

71. 91% - W

72. 80% - L

73. 64% -W

74. 23% - L

75. 93% - W

76. 59% - W

77. 93% - W (93-6)

78. 80% - W

79. 23% - W

80. 9% - L

81. 20% - X (20-0)

82. 5% - L (5-83)

83. 47% - L

84. 70% - L

85. 81% - W

86. 91% - W

87. 80% - W

88. 87% - W

89. 76% - L

90. 65% - W (65-34)

91. 91% -W

92. 2% - L

93. 23% - L

94. 18% - L

95. 95% - W

96. 61% - W (61-7)

97. 11% - L

98. 9% - L

99. 91% - W 3 way 91-4-3-(2)

100. 31% - L 3 way 31-38-31

chilling · June 2016

variance is variance.Rigged must mean in favour of certain players.I think we need to know the alias of these players your in pots with.

Can you start again pls.

swanstu · June 2016

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

variance is variance.Rigged must mean in favour of certain players.I think we need to know the alias of these players your in pots with. Can you start again pls.
Posted by chilling

Variance is the effect of luck/chance.

If you are better than your opponents by 0.1% on average (which would make you a fairly good player) then there's still a pretty big chance you are a losing player, due to luck, not to mention commission paid to sites etc. Gambling is fine, if you understand it is still gambling.....no matter how many poker books you read or hands you experience.

AyrGraeme · June 2016

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

variance is variance.Rigged must mean in favour of certain players.I think we need to know the alias of these players your in pots with. Can you start again pls.
Posted by chilling

LOL

AyrGraeme · June 2016

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

There are too many posts i think with percentages being the only way to go.After all, one pot can make or break.Of course its important to know your percentages and pot odds etc, but its not the be and end all.
Posted by chilling

Hence I won't draw any conclusions before I've looked at 1000 hands or so

AyrGraeme · July 2016

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

1. 82% - L 2. 10% - W 3. 72% - L 4. 73% - W (73-23) 5. 47% - W (47-50) 6. 77% - W 7. 45% - W 8. 25% - L 9. 60% - W 10. 95% - W 11. 58% - L *3 way 58-27-12-(3) 12. 71% - W 13. 52% - L *3 way 52-31-13-(4) 14. 70% - W 15. 80% - W 16. 47% - L 17. 66% - W 18. 91% - W 19. 90% - L 20. 62% - W *3 way all in 62-12-26 21. 72% - W (72-24) 22. 45% - L 23. 59% - L 24. 81% - W (81-19) 25. 95% - L 26. 96% - W 27. 81% - W 28. 93% - W (93-0) 29. 79% - L *3 way all in 79-21-0 30. 54% - L 31. 13% - L (13-82) 32. 86% - W 33. 43% - L (43-56) 34. 9% - L 35. 46% - W 36. 95% - W 37. 91% - W 38. 43% - L 39. 38% - W (38-61) 40. 91% - W 41. 7% - L (7-80) 42. 83% - W 43. 70% - W 44. 81% - W 45. 82% - W 46. 98% - W (3 way all in 98-1-1) 47. 7% - X (7-68) 48. 76% - W (3 way all in 76-14-10) 49. 89% - L 50. 89% - W 51. 63% - L 52. 72% - W (72-23) 53. 54% - W 54. 5% - L 55. 82% - W (82-17) 56. 93% - W (93-6) 57. 74% - W (74-23) 58. 99% - W 59. 95% - W 60. 27% - L 61. 91% - W 62. 47% - L (3 way all-in 47-(3)-21-29) W side pot v 21 63. 86% - W 64. 46% - L 65. 9% - L 66. 99% - W 67. 82% - W 68. 47% - W 69. 65% - W 70. 68% - W 71. 91% - W 72. 80% - L 73. 64% -W 74. 23% - L 75. 93% - W 76. 59% - W 77. 93% - W (93-6) 78. 80% - W 79. 23% - W 80. 9% - L 81. 20% - X (20-0) 82. 5% - L (5-83) 83. 47% - L 84. 70% - L 85. 81% - W 86. 91% - W 87. 80% - W 88. 87% - W 89. 76% - L 90. 65% - W (65-34) 91. 91% -W 92. 2% - L 93. 23% - L 94. 18% - L 95. 95% - W 96. 61% - W (61-7) 97. 11% - L 98. 9% - L 99. 91% - W 3 way 91-4-3-(2) 100. 31% - L 3 way 31-38-31
Posted by AyrGraeme

Average W-D-L %: 63-2-35

Expected W-D-L: 63-2-35

Actual W-D-L: 61-2-37

1-10% - 9 - 7% - 0.67 - 1

11-20% - 4 - 16% - 0.62 - 0

21-30% - 5 - 24% - 1.21 - 1

31-40% - 2 - 35% - 0.69 - 1

41-50% - 11 - 46% - 5.03 - 4

51-60% - 7 - 57% - 3.96 - 3

61-70% - 11 - 66% - 7.24 - 9

71-80% - 15 - 76% - 11.4 - 11

81-90% - 15 - 84% - 12.62 - 12

91-100% - 20 - 94% - 18.8 - 19

chilling · July 2016

Im keeping pace with you graeme, im on page 800 reading War And Peace.

AyrGraeme · July 2016

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

Im keeping pace with you graeme, im on page 800 reading War And Peace.
Posted by chilling

LOL ;D

AyrGraeme · July 2016

5-(2)-64-29 L

5-45-37-12 L

7-(20)-2-34-37 L

9 L

10-80 L

14-(1)-53-32 L

17-80 L

17 L

18 L

19 L

20-79 W

20-(3)-43-34 L

21 L

24-70 L

24-73 L

24-(1)-30-13-32 L

26 L

28 L

29-69 L

29-15-54 (2) L

31-(1)-15-51-2 L

32 L

33 W

34-(1)-9-56 W

35 L

36-59 L

37 L

38 W

39 W

42-57 L

44 L

45-36-19 L

47 L

50-49 W

51 L

51-(18)-0-31 W

53 L

54 W

56 L

56 W

57 W

57 L

57 W

59 W

61-38 L

62-(14)-5-19 W

62 L

62 W

63-18-19 W

64 L

64-(2)-12-(1)-23 L

65-34 W

66-32 L

67 W

68-22 W

68 W

69-(1)-29-1 L

70-28 W

70-24 W

70-(1)-11-18 W

70-29 W

70 W

71-8-(11)-11 L

73-25 W

73 W

74-25 W

79 W

80-19 L

81 L

81 W

82 W

82-14-4 W

83 W

84 L

84 W

85 W

86 W

86-11 W

86-9 W

88-9 L

89 W

90-8 W

90-9 L

91 W

92 W

93 W

93-6 L

95 W

96 L

96 W

97-3-0 W

99 W

3rd 100 results

Expected W-D-L: 59-1-40

Actual W-D-L: 52-0-48

1-10% - 5 - 7% - 0.36 - 0

11-20% - 7 - 18% - 1.23 - 1

21-30% - 8 - 26% - 2.05 - 0

31-40% - 9 - 35% - 3.15 - 4

41-50% - 6 - 46% - 2.75 - 1

51-60% - 10 - 55% - 5.51 - 6

61-70% - 20 - 66% - 13.22 - 13

71-80% - 7 - 75% - 5.24- 5

81-90% - 16 - 85% - 13.59 - 12

91-100% - 12 - 95% - 11.39 - 10

AyrGraeme · July 2016

A summary of the 1st 3 sets of 100 hands:

Win % above or below: In all 3 sets of 100 I have run slightly worse than the expected hands won by 2%, 5% and 7% so all fairly close to expected results. All falling on the wrong side for me which is not completely surprising after only 3 samples this is only a 7/1 shot so no conspiracies here.

Expected wins for 10% chance increments: Effectively with 30 samples, 20 of them fell within less than 1 of the total expected hands won which suggests predictable randomness running true. Of the 10 which did not, I fared well in 3 and badly in 7. Again for a 50/50 chance run 10 times, 3-7 would not be an uncommon record to occur randomly.

CATCH-22 · July 2016

so all is as expected

AyrGraeme · July 2016

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

so all is as expected
Posted by CATCH-22

It would appear so................

oynutter · July 2016

This is the most interesting and informative discussion that has ever been posted on a poker forum ever!!! --except that one that was posted by Richard Orford, obviously

tomgoodun · July 2016

The tin hat brigade may say the reason these samples are showing not rigged so far is because it's on the forum and the doom switch has been regulated for Graham. #cantwinmate.

Independent Variance Research

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