Independent Variance Research

AyrGraeme · July 2016

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

This is the most interesting and informative discussion that has ever been posted on a poker forum ever!!! --except that one that was posted by Richard Orford, obviously
Posted by oynutter

I detect a hint of sarcasm, but thanks fir paying attention anyway mate

AyrGraeme · July 2016

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

The tin hat brigade may say the reason these samples are showing not rigged so far is because it's on the forum and the doom switch has been regulated for Graham. #cantwinmate.
Posted by tomgoodun

Haha - no doubt. In that case they will have a simple solution. Just log and post results! Together they can take down the evil empire!

AyrGraeme · July 2016

1-1 X

2-(55)-2-41 L

7-86 L

7 L

7-92 W

8 L

10 W

14-85 L

15-83 L

18 W

18 L

19 L

20 L

20 W

20-75 W

23 L

26 L

28-67 W

28-57-14 L

30-69 W

31 L

31-20-49 W

34-(2)-25-39 L

37-8-52 W

43 W

45 L

45 W

46 W

46 L

47 W

50-49 W

52 L

54 W

54 L

55 L

55-22-18 L

55-(1)-14-30 W

57 W

57 L

57-42 W

57-7-36 W

59-7 W

60 W

62 L

64 W

64 L

65-34 L

66-33 W

67 L

67-28 W

68 W

69-30 W

70-29 W

71-23 L

71-24 L

72-23 W

73 W

74-25 X

75-20 W

78-21 W

78 W

80 W

81 W

82-17 W

82 W

83 W

84-15 W

86 L

87-12 W

88 W

89 W

91-8 W

91 W

92 W

93-0 W

93 W

95 W

95 L

97 W

99 W

Expected W-X-L: 59-3-38

Actual W-X-L: 67-2-31

1-10% - 7 - 6% - 0.42 - 2

11-20% - 11 - 18% - 1.99 - 5

21-30% - 5 - 27% - 1.35 - 2

31-40% - 4 - 33% - 1.33 - 2

41-50% - 7 - 46% - 3.22 - 5

51-60% - 13 - 56% - 7.29 - 7

61-70% - 11 - 66% - 7.3 - 7

71-80% - 10 - 75% - 7.52- 7

81-90% - 13 - 85% - 11.04 - 12

91-100% - 19 - 94% - 17.78 - 18

AyrGraeme · July 2016

Overall I ran pretty well for my 4th set of 100 hands. Actual wins were 8% higher than expected wins.

In terms of 10% increments, 7/10 predictable randomness ran true and were within 1 hand of the expected win rate.

Of the other 3 that did not, I ran better than expected in 3/3 which is not surprising given my overall win rate 8% above.

These were in:

0-10% where I won 2/5

11-20% where I won a very high 5/11

41-50% where I won 5/7

Overall from 40 samles of 10% increments 27/40 have been very close to the predicted randomness. Of the 13 that did not if we look at W-L in terms of run good - run bad it should be about 50/50 and I am now 6-7 so pretty spot on.

bigr · August 2016

In Response to Independent Variance Research:

I'm going to carry out a bit of research to see if I can put to bed this idea that the site is rigged. I am going to attempt to analyse a large number of hands to see if true variance seems to hold up. I tend to only have time to play Friday and Saturday nights now so I will hopefully chip in with a couple of weekly updates. The only situation I can see where you can remove every variable is removed other than the randomness of the cards is when every player left in the hand is all-in and there is 1 or more cards to come. I will post the results for each of these situations for each session played. I know it doesn't analyse every hand but over time it should provide sufficient data to look at. All opinions and contributions welcome.
Posted by AyrGraeme

i don't think for a minute it is rigged. there is just such a lot of luck. i lost three all in hands this morning. i had best hand in all 3 me aa him kk he hit k. me kk him ak he hit a A me qq him A q he hit A. thats why i would never play big stakes. i can't understand why people would play if the think it is rigged. the real problem are when people are losing money they can't afford to

AyrGraeme · September 2016

0-95(5) L

2-1(97) X

2-2(96) X

4 L

5 L

7-81(12) L

8 L

9 L

9-9-82 L

9-78(13) L

16 L

17 L

17-82(1) L

18 L

18-80(2) L

19 L

19-16-65 L

22-68(10) L

22-77(1) L

23 L

24-75(1) L

25 W

27 L

29-68(3) W

30-69(1) L

35 L

37-21(42) L

39 L

42 W

43 L

44-43-13 W

46 L

49-33-17(1) W

51 W

52 L

53-8-37(2) W

55 L

56-42(2) W

62-37(1) L

65 L

65-34(1) W

66-9(25) W

67 W

67-16-17 W

68-17-15 W

68 W

69 W

70-16(14) W

71 W

71 L

72-12-15(1) W

72-27(1) L

72-24 (4) L

72-24(4) L

73 L

73-26(1) L

74-10-10(6) W

75 W

75-8(17) W

76 L

77 L

78 W

80 W

81 W

81 L

82-17(1) W

82 L

82 W

82 L

82 W

82 L

84-15(1) W

86-13(1) W

87-12(1) W

89 W

90-9(1) W

90 W

91 L

91 W

93-5(2) W

93-0(7) X

95 L

95 W

95-2(3) L

95 W

96 W

97 W

Expected W-X-L: 57-4-39

Actual W-X-L: 46-3-51

1-10% - 14 - 6% - 0.86 - 0

11-20% - 7 - 18% - 1.26 - 0

21-30% - 8 - 25% - 2.02 - 2

31-40% - 3 - 37% - 1.11 - 0

41-50% - 5 - 45% - 2.24 - 3

51-60% - 5 - 53% - 2.67 - 3

61-70% - 11 - 67% - 7.34 - 9

71-80% - 19 - 75% - 14.16- 10

81-90% - 16 - 85% - 13.42 - 11

91-100% - 12 - 94% - 11.27 - 8

AyrGraeme · September 2016

Took a bit of a kicking in this set of 100 running 11% worse than expected results.

Overall I have faired better than expected in 1/5 and worse in 4/5 of 100 hand samples.

In terms of 10% increments I fared particularly badly in over 70% chances, winning just 29/47 when 39/47 would be closer to expected.

This is the 1st set where predictable randomness has not been within 10%.

Of the 10 10% increments only 4/10 fell within 1 hand of the predicted randomness, which is the lowest of the 5 samples.

Of the 6 that did not I fared better than expected in 1 and worse in 5 which reflects my overall bad luck.

I did well in the 61-70% range winning 9/11 when expected average was 7.34, and fared badly in the 11-20, 31-40, 71-80, 81-90 & 90+ ranges.

Overall from the 50 samples, 31/50 have landed within 1 hand of expected outcome. Of those 19 that did not I am 7-12 in terms of W-L coming out on the right end of the luck. This is the number I am expecting to come fairly close to 50/50 once a large sample size has been analysed.

AyrGraeme · September 2016

1-(3)-25-71 L

2-85(13) L

2 L

3 L

4 L

9 L

9-88(3) L

9 L

18 L

18-81(1) W

19 L

20 L

22 L

23 L

23 W

24-70(6) L

28-66(6) L

30 L

30-10-60 L

30-69(1) L

30 L

43-39-18 L

47 L

48 W

50-49(1) W

50-49(1) L

51-48(1) L

52-47(1) W

53-43(6) L

55 L

57 W

57 L

62-37(1) L

63-36(1) L

64 W

66-33(1) W

67-17(17) W

67-32(1) W

67-32(1) L

68 W

68 L

69 L

69-11(20) W

70-29(1) W

70-16-13(1) W

71-23(6) L

71-23(6) W

72-20-6(2) W

72 W

72-27(1) L

74-21(5) L

74-25(1) L

75 W

76-21(3) W

79-20(1) W

79-19(2) W

80-19(1) L

80 W

81 W

81-13(6) W

82 W

83-16(1) W

84 W

84-7(9) W

84-9(7) W

86 W

87 L

88-10(2) W

89 W

89 L

89 W

91 W

92 W

93 W

93-3(3) W

96-1(3) W

97 W

98-0(2) W

98 W

Expected W-X-L: 62-2-36

Actual W-X-L: 56-0-44

1-10% - 11 - 5% - 0.54 - 0

11-20% - 4 - 19% - 0.75 - 1

21-30% - 9 - 27% - 2.4 - 1

31-40% - 0 - 0% - 0 - 0

41-50% - 5 - 48% - 2.38 - 2

51-60% - 6 - 54% - 3.25 - 2

61-70% - 15 - 67% - 10.02 - 8

71-80% - 19 - 75% - 14.33- 14

81-90% - 19 - 85% - 16.12- 16

91-100% - 12 - 94% - 11.23 - 12

AyrGraeme · September 2016

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research : Does this suggest a touch of downswing and nothing more.
Posted by chilling

Yes mate, absolutely.

Effectively its the same as 5 coin tosses, I call heads every time and its come down tails 4 times and for the other figures I've called heads 19 times and its come down tails 12 times.

Not that unusual to win only 1/5 and 7/19 coin flips. Over such a sample size a swing or 4 or 5 consecutive losses is not that improbable.

AyrGraeme · September 2016

On the 6th set of 100 I again ran slightly worse than variance would predict (6%).

I have now ran worse than expected in 5/6, again still too small a sample size to say this is anything other than variance.

As the 31-40% range produced no hands on this occasion, I now have 59 10% increment samples. Of these, 37/59 fell within 1 hand of the expected outcome, which is some evidence that predicted variance generally runs true.

Of the ranges that fell outwith this range I have fared better than expected in 7 and worse in 15. This is a fairly low number for what is essentially a coin toss but again not totally unexpected given the small sample size.

AyrGraeme · October 2016

7th set of 100

0-5(95) X
2-(78)-2-18 L
3-93(4) L
4 L
5L
5-0(95) X
5-86 (9) L
5 L
7 L
7 L
7 L
8 W
9 L.

11 L
14 L
14-85(1) L
15-33-51(1) L
19 L
20 L.

28 L
29-69(2) W
30-69(1) L.

31 L
34-(1)-20-45 W
36-63(1) W

43 L
45 W
46 W
47-38-13(2) W.

52-7(41) X
53 L
53 W
54 W
56 W
56-(1)-25-18 L
56 W
57-0 (43) W
58-41(1) W.

63 W
63 W
64 L
66-(2)-12-20 L
66-33(1) W
66-17-16(1) W
67-28 (5) W
67 W
68 W
70 W
70-7(23) X

71 W
71 W
72-27(1) W
73-20(7) L
74-17-9 W
75-20(5) W
75 W
77 L
77 W
78 L
80 L
80 L
80 W.

81 L
81 L
81 W
81 W
82 W
82 W
82 W
82 W
82 W
83-11(6) L
83-6(12) W
84 W
84 L
84 W
84 L
84 W
86 W
87-9-4 W
88 W
88 W
89 W
89 W
90-9(1) W.

91 W
91 L
91 W
91 W
91 W
91 W
92 W
92 W
92 W
93 W
95 W
95 L
96-2-(1)-1 W
97 W
99 W.

Expected W-X-L: 61-4-35

Actual W-X-L: 60-4-36

1-10% - 13 - 5% - 0.67- 1

11-20% - 6 - 16% - 0.93 - 0

21-30% - 3 - 29% - 0.87 - 1

31-40% - 3 - 34% - 1.01 - 2

41-50% - 4 - 45% - 1.81 - 3

51-60% - 9 - 55% - 4.95 - 6

61-70% - 11 - 66% - 7.3 - 8

71-80% - 13 - 76% - 9.83- 8

81-90% - 23 - 84% - 19.37- 18

91-100% - 15 - 93% - 13.97 - 13

AyrGraeme · October 2016

This has been the truest reflection of predictable randomness of any set of 100 yet. By winning %, I should have won 61 hands, split 4 and lost 35. I did split 4 and won 60, lost 36 so had I managed to avoid a 2 outer on one of my rivers the results would have been bang on!!

Of the 10% ranges, 6 fell within 1 hand of predicted hands won and of the remaining 4, I fared well in terms of luck in 2 and badly in 2 but in all cases the variance was very small and never more than 2.

I fared well in the coin toss ranges, winning 3/4 in the 41-50% range and winning 6/9 in the 51-60% range

I fared slightly worse than expected in the upper ranges, with 18/23 won in 81-90% range when 19 or 20 were expected and 8/13 won in the 71-80% range when 9 or 10 were expected.

Overall W/L in terms of coming up on right side of luck:

1-6 for the 7 100 hand samples

9-17 for the 10% increments

43/69 10% increments have fallen within 1 hand of expected outcome.

The_eggs · October 2016

Here is an example of about 35k in flips if you also put same data into a variance calculator I would imagine over this sample you could easily have swings bigger than what is demonstrated here

http://m.imgur.com/gallery/5FxIc