I think we need to consider another variable in these spots, & it applies equally to NLH or Omaha.
Adjusting to the table/opponents
As a general rule, when the table is very aggro - let's say Eon, Marky, Hotwheals, what I call the "high variance guys" - we need to fight fire with fire. I like the idea of doing the opposite to everyone else, but in this case, these boys will run over the table if we let them. So we need to go to war sooner, & what will be will be.
At the other end of the range, consider a table full of sticky stations. No names, but we have plenty of them. These boys limp in EVERY hand & call ANY raise with ANY 4. Sometimes they get a stack, & that makes them even stickier.
But here's the thing. It's RANK BAD PLAY, they are making mistakes almost every hand. And yes, they'll get a stack sometimes, & win a few games.
BUT..... the longer the game lasts, the more mistakes they are going to make.
So if we have a table full of these sort of players, I tend to nit up more. Adjust to the table
How can that happen? Think if I did that very often, I'd quit poker & marry Haysie.
On another table on Monday, I had 2 of them lined up, both to my immediate left, proper sentry duty stuff. NO WAY of getting any raise past either of them.
I raised it up to 1,000 @ 150-300, they both called, & the board came very awkward, so we all checked it down.
They both had identical hands.
Q-9-6-6
I nearly fainted. It's hard to imagine many worse hands in 08, & TWO of them called a full pot raise with it.
So when we have a table full of these Sticky Stations, we must adjust, & let them bust each other. More often that not, they will.
Good thread Hendo. First, let's look at our hand strength in isolation. This is a Top 100 hand in a ranking of some 5,300 "O8 Hand Rankings". It will scoop some 20% of the time, & chop 35% of the time. It's a very big hand, particularly late stages when our decisions are all pre-flop & we won't be playing down the streets at it will all be going in pre. Early doors, with the blinds small, it is MUCH harder to play, as you'll mostly get a few callers & it becomes very hard to play on most flops that contain low cards. Posted by Tikay10
Against a hand that dominates us for the low and has some Hi potential such as A39T with a spade draw we are 43.08% to scoop the entire pot (then chop possibilities).
Against a middling hand like 5678 double suited we are 40.10% to scoop and 25.97% for the Lo.
Against a hand that doesnt dominate our low draw such as A4TJ with one flush draw we are only 34.58% to scoop, however we only have a 16.29% chance of being scooped, so less than 1 in 6 chance of busting.
Edit: against the 2 callers with q966 (in this AA4T scenario) they would have between 3% and 7% chance of scooping so I would still be throwing chips in their eye
In Response to Re: another little spot to ponder. : Against a hand that dominates us for the low and has some Hi potential such as A39T with a spade draw we are 43.08% to scoop the entire pot (then chop possibilities). Against a middling hand like 5678 double suited we are 40.10% to scoop and 25.97% for the Lo. Against a hand that doesnt dominate our low draw such as A4TJ with one flush draw we are only 34.58% to scoop, however we only have a 16.29% chance of being scooped, so less than 1 in 6 chance of busting. Edit: against the 2 callers with q966 (in this AA4T scenario) they would have between 3% and 7% chance of scooping so I would still be throwing chips in their eye Posted by markycash
Agreed, but we don't know what they had.
My numbers are based on an as played simulation of 100,000 hands.
In Response to Re: another little spot to ponder. : Agreed, but we don't know what they had. My numbers are based on an as played simulation of 100,000 hands. Anyway, to me, it's a clear "pot". Posted by Tikay10
I personally agree and would pot it too. I just am not sure against which hands we would be only 20% to scoop. If this was the case then I would definitely be folding.
Really enjoyed the games last night! The break seems to have reset my patience levels which is obviously rather important
Couldn't agree more with your general point that our approaches need to consider who we are playing etc! Always good to be willing to adapt to the specific settings.
Good thread Hendo. First, let's look at our hand strength in isolation. This is a Top 100 hand in a ranking of some 5,300 "O8 Hand Rankings". It will scoop some 20% of the time, & chop 35% of the time. It's a very big hand, particularly late stages when our decisions are all pre-flop & we won't be playing down the streets at it will all be going in pre. Early doors, with the blinds small, it is MUCH harder to play, as you'll mostly get a few callers & it becomes very hard to play on most flops that contain low cards. Posted by Tikay10
One of those situations where 'sigh' is the order of the day! Howevever if you are folding this hand pre to anyone,including Eon..you might as well take up another game.(exceptions apply.2 extreme shorties,but not with 5 players and the stacks shown)
A couple of observations from the detail of the calcs I ran.
Generally we are c20-25% to be scooped against and 30-50+% to scoop our opponent.
There was nothing really between us and KK23 for the low which seemed odd to me. In fact we are a very slight favourite.
I suppose that to get 3 low cards out of 5678 is not so likely and if an A or 4 hits we were behind anyway, and we have the blocker to the A. If a 2 or 3 hits our opponent is counterfeit. Does that explain it? Am I missing something?
I reckon I could win a lot on a prop bet by asking people what is the favourite for the low AAT4 or KK23?
A couple of observations from the detail of the calcs I ran. Generally we are c20-25% to be scooped against and 30-50+% to scoop our opponent. There was nothing really between us and KK23 for the low which seemed odd to me. In fact we are a very slight favourite. I suppose that to get 3 low cards out of 5678 is not so likely and if an A or 4 hits we were behind anyway, and we have the blocker to the A. If a 2 or 3 hits our opponent is counterfeit. Does that explain it? Am I missing something? I reckon I could win a lot on a prop bet by asking people what is the favourite for the low AAT4 or KK23? Posted by Phantom66
Just to clarify are you say in the first highlighted part that A4 is slight favourite for the low?
In the second are you saying that most would think the 23 hand is favourite?
In Response to Re: another little spot to ponder. : Just to clarify are you say in the first highlighted part that A4 is slight favourite for the low? In the second are you saying that most would think the 23 hand is favourite? Posted by HENDRIK62
Yes and Yes
Logically 23 is fav v A4 - eg 865 on board then the 23 wins.
I think the 2nd A makes a difference here - but waiting for Tikay's thoughts
In Response to Re: another little spot to ponder. : Yes and Yes Logically 23 is fav v A4 - eg 865 on board then the 23 wins. I think the 2nd A makes a difference here - but waiting for Tikay's thoughts Posted by Phantom66
So more chance of the 23 being counterfeited as there are only 5 cards to counterfeit the A4 hand?
Yes it's the only reason I can think of. I think there is a freudian slip in your 2nd spelling of counterfeit, but I also think it fits well when it happens to us.
Yes it's the only reason I can think of. I think there is a freudian slip in your 2nd spelling of counterfeit, but I also think it fits well when it happens to us. Posted by Phantom66
Comments
I think we need to consider another variable in these spots, & it applies equally to NLH or Omaha.
Adjusting to the table/opponents
As a general rule, when the table is very aggro - let's say Eon, Marky, Hotwheals, what I call the "high variance guys" - we need to fight fire with fire. I like the idea of doing the opposite to everyone else, but in this case, these boys will run over the table if we let them. So we need to go to war sooner, & what will be will be.
At the other end of the range, consider a table full of sticky stations. No names, but we have plenty of them. These boys limp in EVERY hand & call ANY raise with ANY 4. Sometimes they get a stack, & that makes them even stickier.
But here's the thing. It's RANK BAD PLAY, they are making mistakes almost every hand. And yes, they'll get a stack sometimes, & win a few games.
BUT..... the longer the game lasts, the more mistakes they are going to make.
So if we have a table full of these sort of players, I tend to nit up more.
Adjust to the table
Sticky Station Sorts
5 handed last night, one kid had 5,900 chips.
He finished 5th.
How can that happen? Think if I did that very often, I'd quit poker & marry Haysie.
On another table on Monday, I had 2 of them lined up, both to my immediate left, proper sentry duty stuff. NO WAY of getting any raise past either of them.
I raised it up to 1,000 @ 150-300, they both called, & the board came very awkward, so we all checked it down.
They both had identical hands.
Q-9-6-6
I nearly fainted. It's hard to imagine many worse hands in 08, & TWO of them called a full pot raise with it.
So when we have a table full of these Sticky Stations, we must adjust, & let them bust each other. More often that not, they will.
Against a middling hand like 5678 double suited we are 40.10% to scoop and 25.97% for the Lo.
Against a hand that doesnt dominate our low draw such as A4TJ with one flush draw we are only 34.58% to scoop, however we only have a 16.29% chance of being scooped, so less than 1 in 6 chance of busting.
Edit: against the 2 callers with q966 (in this AA4T scenario) they would have between 3% and 7% chance of scooping so I would still be throwing chips in their eye
My numbers are based on an as played simulation of 100,000 hands.
Anyway, to me, it's a clear "pot".
Really enjoyed the games last night! The break seems to have reset my patience levels which is obviously rather important
Couldn't agree more with your general point that our approaches need to consider who we are playing etc! Always good to be willing to adapt to the specific settings.