Anyway, I've been stuck on a train for over 2 hours, hence me getting involved, as I don't really take my poker (or myself......) that seriously, but am close to London now, so I'm done here.
I still fold by the way. With AA we are not guessing, easy call. If anyone would like to post a rationale for us being 80% in that hand v shovers range in a vacuum then please do. Posted by Phantom66
The 80% was purely hypothetical just to make the point that ranges do matter and there is a point where we should call. Assigning ranges is always a bit of guesswork even when we have notes.
It might be that the point where we should call is us having 90% equity or whatever, I don't know, but there is a point somewhere.
In Response to Re: £5 DYM - OP Facing Big Over-Jam : The 80% was purely hypothetical just to make the point that ranges do matter and there is a point where we should call. Assigning ranges is always a bit of guesswork even when we have notes. It might be that the point where we should call is us having 90% equity or whatever, I don't know, but there is a point somewhere. I vvv much doubt we have 80% equity btw. Posted by Lambert180
I agree which was the main point I was trying to make.
Only way we are 80/20 is if we think the opponent is jamming any 2.
To me (and Tikay is the only one agreeing which does worry me slightly) this hand is not really about the ranges our opponent is on. How can it be if the only range we justify a call with is any 2 cards?
I do try and assign ranges, not saying that is bad in general - of course it isn't.
Fwiw if we think they have something and are shoving any flush draw, any 9 any J, u/d str8 draw TT,KK,AA then I doubt we are better than 60/40? Maybe 65/35 at a push?
I think I call and be quite happy to do so. Sometimes we'll have our pants pulled down by 9x, many times they'll have Jx and drawing pretty thin.
Worst case scenario is back to 2k starting stack 5 handed at 15/30, best case scenario is 6k chips and on the bubble already. The former means we should still cash a reasonable amount of the time (esp on what looks a table of randoms), latter means its all gravy from here on in.
I'd say the decision is much closer if we were playing a 2k stack.
I think it's close but I think it's a fold. Having said that I dont think i would have the discipline to fold this in game. Multitabling and the short time bank will see me putting him heavily towards Jx hands and therefore calling.
There's pretty good arguements for calling and folding so I'd be reasonably happy with either.
To me (and Tikay is the only one agreeing which does worry me slightly) this hand is not really about the ranges our opponent is on. How can it be if the only range we justify a call with is any 2 cards? I do try and assign ranges, not saying that is bad in general - of course it isn't. Fwiw if we think they have something and are shoving any flush draw, any 9 any J, u/d str8 draw TT,KK,AA then I doubt we are better than 60/40? Maybe 65/35 at a push? Posted by Phantom66
Sorry to go on about this point but at this stage it is 100% about ranges. Either we are saying we are folding every hand in spots like this including a straight flush or we are saying we analyse our opponents range in this spot and make an assessment. You are doing that range assessment but then saying its not about ranges. There are times when we dont care about ranges and just fold 100% but I cant see how this is one of those.
In Response to Re: £5 DYM - OP Facing Big Over-Jam : Sorry to go on about this point but at this stage it is 100% about ranges. Either we are saying we are folding every hand in spots like this including a straight flush or we are saying we analyse our opponents range in this spot and make an assessment. You are doing that range assessment but then saying its not about ranges. There are times when we dont care about ranges and just fold 100% but I cant see how this is one of those. Posted by MattBates
No need to aplogise Matt. I am glad (and the rest of the forum should be) that a player as good as yourself is taking the time to post on these strategy/hand analysis spots.
I am probably not explaining myself very well either which doesn't help you or lambert.
In game I tend to play by instinct and feel, backed up by a decent smattering of knowledge of the fundamentals and some experience. This is especially in NL DYMs where we don't get so many opportunities to play down the streets and it often boils down to call/shove considerations.
I think about risk/reward more than I think about specific ranges and I dont multitable large amounts so I try and pay particular attention to my opponents and adjust.
Off the table I will often look back and see if my gut inspired play was backed up by a reasoned assessment of ranges.
So yes you are of course right in that my gut/feel call/fold will be in part determined by an assessment of ranges, am I ahead or behind and by how much. When I did put a range out there in my post above it was more an offline check to how I would play it than something I would have consciously done in game.
I just felt that this situation was a relatively easy fold based on risk/reward, that is all.
Cliffs. In game having already doubled up I fold to protect that advantage rather than gamble with a maniac. Offline I look at possible ranges and I still fold. I can see how it is probably more marginal than my gut feeling though.
The risk/reward factor would be heavily weighted towards a call for me. If we started the hand with 2k then it would lean me the other way. Posted by hhyftrftdr
I get where you are coming from, the risk of losing at 2k is losing the game, whereas the risk of losing at 4k is being back in the pack.
We all have different perceptions of risk, the thought of losing the tournament may seem the bigger risk to you, the thought of unecessarily giving up a winning position is a bigger risk to me.
For the sake of this post let's assume we doubled up really early and so are on 4k with the 4 remaining players on 2k.
If we are 4k v 4 opponents on 2k we have a huge edge and should be cashing over 90% of the time, we cannot get much extra reward by being at 99% if we win the hand, and we are back in the pack, one of 4 2k stacks with a 4k stack at the table. We are now fighting for 2 cash spots out of 4 players and that pretty much equates to starting position, maybe a little higher as one player is out and the 4k isnt totally locked up. Whatever the actual numbers, there is a much bigger drop in our equity if we lose than there is a gain in our equity if we win.
If we have only just started the tourney and are one of 6 level 2k stacks, then we are potentially taking our equity up to 90% by winning. It will be a bigger drop to 0% if we lose.
If we are 65%+ to win the hand and 90%+ to go and cash after that, we are 58.5%+ to cash - which is a decent profitable cash rate. I think 65%+ is a optimistic though.
I actually fold both then, but in game I probably do call both sometimes, I know I have called with overpairs to suspicious looking overshoves for sure. I wish I knew how many times I got that right or wrong.
My last post on this. Many different % seem to be thrown about 90% to cash 5 handed at 15/30 seems hugely inaccurate to me Posted by Jac35
82.6% of statistics are made up on the spot
PS I would be interested in how you define "hugely inaccurate" though. 10% isn't "huge" but if it was 10% high that would mean an 81% chance of cashing.
Deffo think the current blind level is being overlooked. If my win % is something like 56% going into this game (I really dunno what it would be) doubling up early probably only increases that to maybe 65-70% absolute max.
I'd agree that if stacks were me on 4k and 4 players on 2k each and it was 150/300 then I'd fancy myself to be in a much better spot but at 15/30 there still a lotttt of poker to be played, a lot of blinds to be paid before anyone is gonna get too excited etc.
I agree with Harry too that us being on 4k makes it more of a call than if we were on 2k which seems the total opposite to everyone else's thinking. From a 4k stack, if we get it right/win we are pretty much 100% to cash imo, certainly vvv high, if we lose, we are back to starting stack so still our original 56% ish to cash, maybe even 60% cos 1 player is already gg.
So if we're on 4k, it's pretty much locking up the game or worst case we're still in a pretty good spot. Whereas 2k, the options are bust out and our equity is now 0% OR we get it right, but even still when we win and double to 4k at 15/30 it does very little to increase our chances of winning. So we'd be giving up our ~56% equity to try and get to 65-70% but at the potential cost of being out. Much less appealing than the options being 'win it now or have a 56-60% of winning'
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Anyway, I've been stuck on a train for over 2 hours, hence me getting involved, as I don't really take my poker (or myself......) that seriously, but am close to London now, so I'm done here.
PS - it's a fold.