Differing strategies for the 2 EPRs at Ascot today.
3.45 2 horses who could win and have very good place prospects Seven Heavens and Sir Dancealot. I think it is worth opposing the favourite with the EP as while undoubtedly the class act it is first time this season and (hopefully) needs the run.
4.55 Seems a pretty open handicap yet there are 3 horses quite a way ahead in the betting. I have gone smaller and for 2 just outside the top 3 and 2 at longer odds Directorship, Forceful Appeal, Balmoral Castle, Eqleem.
Blank in the 1st but a nice priced 1-2 in the 2nd.
I also noticed the 3 places offer was on at the greyhounds last night, although by the time I did there were only 3 races left on the card with the qualifying 6 entrants. From 3 bets I had a loss a place and a win and no mishaps on the amounts so now in profit on the dogs.
Today for the 3.10 Lingield I am on Golly miss Molly and Topolova.
After my recent foray into large field Irish handicaps and looking at the card, I am swerving on the 7.50 at Clonwell.
Hi daphne I am sure that if you are "in the know" either through connections or by watching races and entries closely you can make money from the long odds winners in these handicaps. I only make a few small bets so it's not really worth investing the time for myself though.
Today I am on
3.50 Chepstow - Zambezi Queen
6.45 Cheltenham - Beggar's Velvet, Ni Sin E mo Ainm, Curraigflemens
GL everyone
PS I have made my 400th horse bet of the year so I will do an overall summary of results later. Hopefully an upward tick on the graph for today.
its america's biggest race tonight or tomorrow and sky paying 6 places, if not seen that race before its a top top class event with horses from all over the world competing.
I was a bit worried about the draw as on drawbias there is a bias to nearside over 6f at Chepstow and Zambezi Queen was on the far side. However, she moved across in the first part of the race and tucked in behind the leaders in the middle and then moved across to the nearside rail before romping away over the last two furlongs. So to win by 6 lengths having run across the width of the track as well then clearly her breeding was the best guide and not past form. One of those that needed to mature a bit and reach 3 perhaps. One for the note book and I am sure she will step up in class.
I wish I could take all the credit but to be fair SL gave it a tentative selection and it was napped by the Times and picked by the Express too.
Saw those places on offer for the Kentucky Derby. Anyone got any angles in that one?
i like to do frontrunning or just off the pace in kentucky derby. not that im a expert or anything but ill do a few of those, will look at the card soon
My stated aim is to try and make a profit over 1000 bets and then reassess.
I am keeping the bets small and mainly targetting the extra value in the EPRs although I do place others in the big races and where I see value having had a bit more time to read up on the races.
I have made 400 bets since the 11th January (my first lost).
I have bet on 74 days at an average of 5.4 bets per day.
My average stake is just £1.60 - most of them are 0.5 ew or 1 ew.
My longest odds winner was 22/1 and longest odds place was 50/1.
Having staked £657, I am £185 up, which is of course too good to be true as that includes free bets, so while I have made an ROI of 28% that is because some of those wins have come risk free and the value of the free bets is skewed v my cash bets as I am betting small. I have a small bankroll and I am doing this to learn and for enjoyment (I am getting plenty of both).
Nearly all are single bets.
My ROI without the free bets is around 10% which I gather is still on the high side and unlikely to be sustainable but it shows if a novice like me can make a return it must be possible for others. I do target the added value offers which of course helps.
Generally I only spend 15-30 mins a day on this, but for bigger days like Cheltenham/Aintree or any televised meets that will be able to watch quite a bit longer. I target the EPRs first and assuming the shape of the book looks OK I will read the SL descriptions and form guides via here and the RP via another site. I also check drawbias.com (thanks again graham) and shortlist. Really looking for something outside the top 2 in the betting with a strong win claim, ideally with a fav being opposed, or a longer odds shot with a decent place chance.
I tend to bet on at least 2 horses each race to try and keep the variance down and nearly always e/w.
I will cross check a couple of free tipster resources (dont know if the links are allowed) but you can find them easily enough if you google free newspaper nap picks.
I am also getting better at reading the more detailed form guides on the horse databases (sky have a good free one) to help me with my selections.
Thanks Brrrrrr for getting me into this and for others in the community for keeping me going, I'll probably miss some out, but Mickyblue, StayorGo, Vaigret, Daphne and Wynne have all been very encouraging.
THESE IRISH RACES CAN BE HELPFUL IF YOU LOOK AT THE ALSO RANS (ALCANDER) I WILL BE NICE AND JUST SAY WAS NOT GIVEN A GOOD RIDE GOOD CHANCE IT WILL WIN SOON DECLARED ON SATURDAY ON THE FLAT 3.10 CORK Posted by daphne56
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