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CARLISLE "WOULD BE" TRIAL RUN JACKPOT. POST HERE IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO BE ONE OF MY "G

StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
edited April 2017 in Sports & Betting Chat
Hi guys. Clearly we wouldn't do Carlisle Jackpot as there is no carry over, but the selections would be:

LEG1 - 2.00PM:

1 - LORD BALLIM (11/4)
2 - THEATRE ACT (7/2)
8 - SPOILS OF WAR (11/2)
5 - WAZOWSKI (7/1)

LEG2 - 2.30PM:

2 - DOCTOR GLAZ (11/4)
4 - ACHILL ROAD BOY (7/2)
5 - ALLEZ COOL (8/1)
10 - MAN IN BLACK  (13/2)
1 - JAUNTY THOR (10/1)
3 - LA DAMA DE HIERRO (10/1)

LEG3 - 3.00PM:

1 - MISTER BIG SHOT (1/4)

LEG4 - 3.35PM:

1 - SPICULAS (7/2)
2 - THYNE FOR GOLD (5/1)
4 - SCOOTER BOY (5/2)
5 - HALCYONS DAYS (3/1)

LEG5 - 4.05PM:

2 - CALIVIGNY (3/1)
1 - ROWDY ROCHER (15/2)
7 - PRESENTING JUNIOR (7/1)
8 - CRAFTY ROBERTO (9/1)

LEG6 - 4.35PM:

9 - NOCTURNAL MYTH (9/4)
2 - OURO BRANCO (11/4)

THIS WOULD BE 768 lines at a cost of £384

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Comments

  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited April 2017
    Through the first leg with Lord Ballim, but it was the favourite.
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited April 2017
    2,229.44 UNITS LEFT GOING INTO LEG2
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited April 2017
    Nice result in leg 2 with Allez Cool winning. We had the first 4 home in our selections.

    This is the type of result we are always looking for as Allez Cool was only covered by 7.87% in the Jackpot pool, which is an under-representation of the chance it's odds suggested it had.

    175.5 UNITS left, but it's our "banker" next. :=)
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited April 2017
    LOL, of the 175.5 units left 170.5 units are on our banker :=)

    So clearly lots doing the same.

    Despite this actual leg being, in isolation, -ev, it is just important to get through and we have a further 3 legs to reduce the pool size.

    So the leg is -ev but the selection as a banker, in the whole context of the bet, is +ev due to the wider perm it allows us to do in the other legs.

    Make sense?


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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited April 2017
    Our banker Mr Big Shot prevails comfortably in leg 3. Game on :=)
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  • BrrrrrrrBrrrrrrr Member Posts: 4,211
    edited April 2017
    I can't really afford to join you at the moment, but the best of luck when you go 'live' - this is definitely a great advert for the idea!!
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: CARLISLE "WOULD BE" TRIAL RUN JACKPOT:
    I can't really afford to join you at the moment, but the best of luck when you go 'live' - this is definitely a great advert for the idea!!
    Posted by Brrrrrrr


    Many thanks for your kind wishes Brrrrrr
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited April 2017
    Another 1-2 in leg 4.

    Halcyon Days wins leaving 46 units going through to leg 5.
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  • MAXALLYMAXALLY Member Posts: 17,621
    edited April 2017


    Looking good again Graham...good work. Lets hope we dont fall at the last fence again ;(
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  • chillingchilling Member Posts: 3,774
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: CARLISLE "WOULD BE" TRIAL RUN JACKPOT:
    Looking good again Graham...good work. Lets hope we dont fall at the last fence again ;(
    Posted by MAXALLY
    Hope not, cos its a flat race.
    I know, figure of speech.
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: CARLISLE "WOULD BE" TRIAL RUN JACKPOT:
    Looking good again Graham...good work. Lets hope we dont fall at the last fence again ;(
    Posted by MAXALLY


    Indeed, also hope I don't peak too soon either, in the trials :=)

    What we must remember is that MOST of the time, ONE OR TWO legs will let us down.

    However,  if we can achieve my much touted "1 in 12 success rate" with an average profit > 12 * the stake we'd be doing OK.

    It's quite fun doing the trials, no pressure lol. :=)
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  • Phantom66Phantom66 Member Posts: 5,542
    edited April 2017
    Watching with interest though unlikely to be able to commit to a stake.

    Are there circumstances where you could consider betting on non-selections in the final race when the jackpot chance is live?

    GL.
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited April 2017
    Looks like a late spinger in the market that we don't have in the 5th leg.

    Namely, Freddies Portrait.

    It's a concern.
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited April 2017
    Busted 5th leg, I'm not sure if I am relieved or dissapointed. :=)
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: CARLISLE "WOULD BE" TRIAL RUN JACKPOT:
    Watching with interest though unlikely to be able to commit to a stake. Are there circumstances where you could consider betting on non-selections in the final race when the jackpot chance is live? GL.
    Posted by Phantom66


    Hi Phantom.

    It is something I do consider, and have done in the past.

    Although, I would not want to do this for the Syndicate, for obvious reasons.

    However, there is nothing stopping syndicate members doing something similar for themselves.

    Also, unless you are going to back ALL the selections you don't have, it is often better to "lay" the one's you do.

    Cheers,

    G
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  • MAXALLYMAXALLY Member Posts: 17,621
    edited April 2017


    **** useless Graham! In a six horse race, you pick the four that were not even placed. I told you we should of cashed out FFS*.







    *all said in jest. Liking these trials, and looking forward to the real thing and having a few sweats on the rail. Found the Tote Jackpot page today too when looking how it all worked as didnt have a scooby do.
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited April 2017
    There are just 3 units left going to the final leg.
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: CARLISLE "WOULD BE" TRIAL RUN JACKPOT:
    **** useless Graham! In a six horse race, you pick the four that were not even placed. I told you we should of cashed out FFS*. *all said in jest. Liking these trials, and looking forward to the real thing and having a few sweats on the rail. Found the Tote Jackpot page today too when looking how it all worked as didnt have a scooby do.
    Posted by MAXALLY


    Yes the 5th leg was particularly poor. Although very hard to pick the winner, hence why only 3 units were on it. :=(
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  • MAXALLYMAXALLY Member Posts: 17,621
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: CARLISLE "WOULD BE" TRIAL RUN JACKPOT:
    There are just 3 units left going to the final leg.
    Posted by StayOrGo


    So if Ouro Branco goes off as fav, and doesnt win....this will be a rollover?

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  • zadoczadoc Member Posts: 3,402
    edited April 2017


       Hi Graham,

       Am following with great interest.

       Unfortuanate with last race but this is a very difficult task you have set.

       Overall think you are doing a great job & still have every confidence in your ability to find the correct day to place the bets & have good enough knowledge to select the correct horses.
     
       Roger
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