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FLOS LAS (TRIAL RUN) JACKPOT. WE WOULD HAVE WON IT, BUT LOW DIVIDEND.STILL A PROFIT
StayOrGo
Member Posts: 12,181
Hi.
Many thanks to Roger for doing the leg work with this, I have now amended to R-Post prices and have added the best available prices from this morning. The Racing Post Prices now correspond to the prices at the bottom of each racecard and not to those alongside each horse, which is the bookmaker odds that I use later in the other columns.
PLEASE NOTE THIS IS JUST ANOTHER TRIAL RUN. WE WILL NOT START IN EARNEST UNTIL MAY 2017
I will add up-to-date "LATEST" prices nearer the off.
At the moment our perm is too big, and we don't have a banker yet.
So still some whittling down to do.
The shortlist is highlited in blue. Does anyone have any opinions on horses we can remove, and horses we must keep from the list?
I think, to reduce the perm we'd either need to have BARAZA in the 2.45PM or EARTHMOVES in the 3.20PM as a banker.
I'm inclined to go with EARTHMOVES, but clearly it will be a risk.
Any thoughts?
| DATE | Sunday | 09/04/2017 | Ffos Las | ||
| LEG/TIME | HORSE | R-POST ODDS | OV NIGHT | MORN | LATEST |
| 2:15 | 01 - BALLYARTHUR | 7/4 | 7/4 | ||
| 2:15 | 02 - BALLYANTICS | 14/1 | 16/1 | ||
| 2:15 | 03 - CORBETT COURT | 66/1 | 250/1 | ||
| 2:15 | 04 - JAMESON | 2/1 | 5/4 | ||
| 2:15 | 05 - KAFELLA | 5/1 | 6/1 | ||
| 2:15 | 06 - MURPHY'S NAILS | 20/1 | 66/1 | ||
| 2:15 | 07 - RAMONEX | 16/1 | NON | RUNNER | |
| 2:15 | 08 - ROCK AND ROLL KING | 25/1 | 50/1 | ||
| 2:15 | 09 - OUR PHILLIE LILY | 66/1 | 200/1 | ||
| 2:15 | 10 - WITH PLEASURE | 10/1 | 14/1 | ||
| 2:45 | 01 - BARAZA | 7/4 | 10/11 | ||
| 2:45 | 02 - LOOKS LIKE POWER | 6/1 | 6/1 | ||
| 2:45 | 03 - TIME AND AGAIN | 7/2 | NON | RUNNER | |
| 2:45 | 04 - WHAT'S UP RORY | 7/2 | 5/2 | ||
| 2:45 | 05 - GOING NOWHERE FAST | 16/1 | 14/1 | ||
| 2:45 | 06 - GOONJIM | 5/1 | NON | RUNNER | |
| 3:20 | 01 - THE MUMPER | 4/1 | 15/2 | ||
| 3:20 | 02 - HANDSUPFORDETROIT | 11/2 | 4/1 | ||
| 3:20 | 03 - SPANISH OPTIMIST | 50/1 | 50/1 | ||
| 3:20 | 04 - EARTHMOVES | 8/11 | 4/5 | ||
| 3:20 | 05 - HORSEGUARDSPARADE | 5/1 | 11/2 | ||
| 3:55 | 01 - ZEROSHADESOFGREY | 7/1 | 13/2 | ||
| 3:55 | 02 - WUFF | 7/2 | 4/1 | ||
| 3:55 | 03 - UPSWING | 9/2 | 3/1 | ||
| 3:55 | 04 - ABRICOT DE L'OASIS | 8/1 | 8/1 | ||
| 3:55 | 05 - RACING PULSE | 12/1 | NON | RUNNER | |
| 3:55 | 06 - HENLLAN HARRI | 7/2 | 11/2 | ||
| 3:55 | 07 - BROWNVILLE | 7/1 | 8/1 | ||
| 3:55 | 08 - KILCULLEN FLEM | 7/1 | 7/1 | ||
| 4:30 | 01 - VIRTUEL D'OUDON | 14/1 | NON | RUNNER | |
| 4:30 | 02 - PERFORM | 6/1 | 8/1 | ||
| 4:30 | 03 - OUT SAM | 8/1 | 8/1 | ||
| 4:30 | 04 - KRIS SPIN | 14/1 | NON | RUNNER | |
| 4:30 | 05 - MINELLA ARIS | 7/1 | 6/1 | ||
| 4:30 | 06 - KNIGHT OF NOIR | 25/1 | 40/1 | ||
| 4:30 | 07 - YOU SAY WHAT | 10/1 | 20/1 | ||
| 4:30 | 08 - OSCARTEEA | 14/1 | 25/1 | ||
| 4:30 | 09 - DRIFTWOOD HAZE | 11/1 | 14/1 | ||
| 4:30 | 10 - FIREBIRD FLYER | 20/1 | 33/1 | ||
| 4:30 | 11 - VERYGOODVERYGOOD | 8/1 | 10/1 | ||
| 4:30 | 12 - ROCKY'S TREASURE | 7/2 | 3/1 | ||
| 4:30 | 13 - GOING FOR BROKE | 8/1 | 13/2 | ||
| 4:30 | 14 - TEA TIME FRED | 16/1 | 8/1 | ||
| 5:00 | 01 - ROCKNROLLRAMBO | 15/8 | 2/1 | ||
| 5:00 | 02 - TRIPTICO | 8/1 | NON | RUNNER | |
| 5:00 | 03 - ARMEDANDBEAUTIFUL | 12/1 | 16/1 | ||
| 5:00 | 04 - SHUIL TEACHT ANIAR | 6/1 | 11/2 | ||
| 5:00 | 05 - UNCLE PETTIT | 10/1 | 8/1 | ||
| 5:00 | 06 - THE LAST BRIDGE | 5/1 | 4/1 | ||
| 5:00 | 07 - WELSH DESIGNE | 14/1 | NON | RUNNER | |
| 5:00 | 08 - TRY IT SOMETIME | 12/1 | 9/1 | ||
| 5:00 | 09 - BENNYS GIRL | 15/2 | 13/2 |
END
Comments
Cheers,
G
The rationale generally in these situations is that with it being 7/2 in the paper and drifting late on that it will be over-represented in the pool. I would image it will carry 20% of the pool, where it's chance according to it's odds and adjusted for betting percentages is only 12.5%.
Cheers,
G
So our trial run two perms are: (Chosen horses in blue)
Lets see how we would have done.
Cheers,
G
Cheers,
G
Had I seen all your selections in time, I would have added it.
In reality, I think when we come to the real thing, any selections would have to be put on this thread by mid-day, to allow me time to collate all the statistical info as well as individual's choices to produce a hybrid perm based on the two.
Anyhow, we have most of yours coved, except the above.
GL today!
G
P.S. Wynne, just for my records, have you set up the standing order as yet?
32,460.16 UNITS LEFT GOING ON TO LEG2.
With these types of perms/roll overs, we are really looking for some un-fancied runners to come in (but not so unfancied that we don't have them in our perm)
Hopefully we'll have a "virtual" sweat on these today. :=)
We probably still want fav BARAZA in the next, as it is our "banker" in one of the perms. Although we are covered with WHAT'S UP RORY and LOOKS LIKE POWER in the other perm
Of course this is not ideal, but without spending £1K+ on a perm, we will always have to have a banker unfortunately.
Anyhow, Come on EARTHMOVES!
In a perfect world we could perm the whole lot that I have highlighted on the opening post. (plus Henllan Harri)
However a perm that size would cost £3,969, hence the need for a banker.
Jackpot Pools only get big when there is a significant carry over, that has been going on, for a good few days.
Horses in the next below:
Would be looking to stay in the next few legs, but, ideally, with the most fancied horses not winning.
Abricot much the better result, but think Upswing got it. Still in going to leg 5 either way.
Upswing won, our trial perm2 has the following in Leg 5: