Following with interest. If this was for real I think I might be getting a bit excited by now! Part of me thinks it would be best we did not win this trial - lets save or luck for the real thing!
Favourite wins again, was a shame, as dividend will be low, but probably over the £2K mark, so we wouldn't have lost anything. We just needed a couple of those close finishes where the favourite won to have been the other way around, and it could have been a nice dividend.
Anyhow, we can notch it up as a "partial success" as we did get the Jackpot up.
Good work Graham, you have put in a lot of effort & have proved it can work. Well done. i will keep a watch on Totesport web site to get a feel for when they advertise following days meeting Roger Posted by zadoc
Cheers Roger, and thanks so much for doing the initial spreadsheets.
Did my comments re using the Racing Post prices summarised at the bottom of the race card, rather than the "bookmaker" prices on the same line of the horses name, make sense?
It really was a big help, that you put it together for me. From my experience the Jackpot meeting is available online usually between 9pm and 10pm.
Ideally I would like the spreadsheets by 11pm, so that I can start work on the market movers.
I'm going to chill for a few days, and I will be busy the last two weeks of April, so I will probably do just one more trial run if/when there is a big roll over.
ok that's fine, if you want to give me the nod when you're ready i will put the spreadsheet togather. Hope you run good with the Poker. Regards Roger Posted by zadoc
As the first live bet will likely be on the flat, someone may need to become very familiar with the draw bias on different tracks and variable going conditions.May save time on the day.
As the first live bet will likely be on the flat, someone may need to become very familiar with the draw bias on different tracks and variable going conditions.May save time on the day. Posted by chilling
Yes Chill, I'm already aware of this, but glad you are pointing these things out.
Although, one does also have to be aware of starting stall position too (they are variable on some tracks)
Of course in bets like the Placepot and Jackpot, understanding and "getting right" draw bias, can be a wonderful edge to have, so you are spot on in pointing it out.
Some draw biases are so well know, Chester and Beverly for example, that there is not much of an edge to be had. But the really useful ones are where the draw bias differs based on ground conditions, this link points us in that direction.
Comments
So, even if we do win in the 6th leg, we'd struggle to cover the cost of the perm. There were just too many fancied horses that came in.
Still, at least we haven't peaked too soon. :=)
It will be interesting to see if we would of won, and how much of our stake we'd get back.
But no need to worry about it being a missed opportunity anyway, we wouldn't have won big here.
Cheers,
G
Provided/If one of our 5 come in, the best result for us (in order) would be:
Try it Sometime (10 units)
Benny's Girl (13.5 units)
Shuil Teacht Aniar (16.5 units)
The Last Bridge (19.5 units)
Rocknrollrambo (34.36 units + 2.5 fav units)
So the dividend would need to be /> £2K to make a potential profit (assuming we get it)
We have favourable equity at this stage, but not by much.
Anyhow, we can notch it up as a "partial success" as we did get the Jackpot up.
Cheers,
G
So we'd collect £1,086.65 for a slight profit.
Had the two photo finishes gone the other way, we probably would have been looking at an £8-10K cash.
All hypothetical anyway, but a good trial non the less, and will have hopefully given some of you an idea of the processes involved.
Cheers,
G
Did my comments re using the Racing Post prices summarised at the bottom of the race card, rather than the "bookmaker" prices on the same line of the horses name, make sense?
It really was a big help, that you put it together for me. From my experience the Jackpot meeting is available online usually between 9pm and 10pm.
Ideally I would like the spreadsheets by 11pm, so that I can start work on the market movers.
I'm going to chill for a few days, and I will be busy the last two weeks of April, so I will probably do just one more trial run if/when there is a big roll over.
All the best,
Graham