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FRIDAY SCOOP6 TRIAL RUN (P.S. NOT A CAT IN ****'S CHANCE OF IT BEING WON)
StayOrGo
Member Posts: 12,181
Hi, I have had to start a new thread for this as I want the spreadsheet on the opening post.
Following on from Wynne's request for a trial run of the Friday SCOOP6, see selections below:
The only decision I have made at this stage, in agreement with MICKYBLUE, is that, like it or not, ENNAADD (IN LEG 6) has to be our banker as there is no other feasible alternative.
This really is a shot in the dark. I will shortlist when more odds information is available tomorrow.
P.S. Thanks to Roger for the spreadsheet, I did spot one minor anomaly, and that is the RP ODDS of COURIER in the 2.55N should be 16/1 not 15/1. I have left it as 15/1 so you can see it.
Runners below (Draw Number Added) Shortlisted runners in blue. Has been whittled down, will make slight changes based on market moves just before the off:
| DATE | Friday | 14/04/2017 | SCOOP6 | LINGFILED | NEWCASTLE | |
| LEG/TIME | HORSE | DRAW | R-POST ODDS | OV NIGHT | MORN | LATEST |
| L 2:10 | 01 - FIRST MOHICAN | 3 | 14/1 | 18/1 | 22/1 | |
| L 2:10 | 02 - GAVLAR | 4 | 33/1 | 50/1 | 66/1 | |
| L 2:10 | 03 - HAINES | 9 | 25/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 | |
| L 2:10 | 04 - JOHN REEL | 1 | 50/1 | 50/1 | 50/1 | |
| L 2:10 | 05 - PINZOLO | 7 | 7/1 | 8/1 | 8/1 | |
| L 2:10 | 06 - STEVE ROGERS | 5 | 20/1 | 20/1 | 20/1 | |
| L 2:10 | 07 - WATERSMEET | 14 | 6/1 | 13/2 | 13/2 | |
| L 2:10 | 08 - WINTERLUDE | 2 | 14/1 | 20/1 | 22/1 | |
| L 2:10 | 09 - COHESION | 8 | 11/2 | 6/1 | 5/1 | |
| L 2:10 | 10 - PETITE JACK | 6 | 10/1 | 9/1 | 9/1 | |
| L 2:10 | 11 - PRINCE OF ARRAN | 13 | 8/1 | 15/2 | 8/1 | |
| L 2:10 | 12 - VETTORI RULES | 10 | 40/1 | 40/1 | 66/1 | |
| L 2:10 | 13 - WINNING STORY | 12 | 7/1 | 9/1 | 11/1 | |
| L 2:10 | 14 - NATURAL SCENERY | 11 | 4/1 | 9/2 | 11/2 | |
| N 2:20 | 01 - STANGHOW | 7 | 10/1 | 10/1 | 14/1 | |
| N 2:20 | 02 - SECRET MISSILE | 13 | 20/1 | 20/1 | 20/1 | |
| N 2:20 | 03 - APROVADO | 12 | 5/1 | 6/1 | 13/2 | |
| N 2:20 | 04 - FIRST BOMBARDMENT | 11 | 10/1 | 11/1 | 9/1 | |
| N 2:20 | 05 - BAPAK ASMARM | 6 | 12/1 | 12/1 | 14/1 | |
| N 2:20 | 06 - TYLER WONDER | 9 | 10/1 | 12/1 | 16/1 | |
| N 2:20 | 07 - ART COLLECTION | 1 | 11/2 | 6/1 | 6/1 | |
| N 2:20 | 08 - MONEY TEAM | 5 | 10/1 | 11/1 | 12/1 | |
| N 2:20 | 09 - ORIENT CLASS | 3 | 7/1 | 8/1 | 14/1 | |
| N 2:20 | 10 - EXCESSABLE | 2 | 14/1 | 14/1 | 12/1 | |
| N 2:20 | 11 - NEW ROAD SIDE | 10 | 12/1 | 12/1 | 12/1 | |
| N 2:20 | 12 - VAN GERWEN | 8 | 9/1 | 9/1 | 8/1 | |
| N 2:20 | 13 - PADDY POWER | 4 | 9/1 | 15/2 | 15/2 | |
| N 2:55 | 01 - COURIER | 5 | 15/1 | 16/1 | 25/1 | |
| N :255 | 02 - FLORENCIO | 9 | 9/1 | 10/1 | 10/1 | |
| N :255 | 03 - SAFE VOYAGE | 2 | NON | RUNNER | N/A | |
| N :255 | 04 - MUTAMID | 3 | 9/2 | 5/1 | 9/2 | |
| N :255 | 05 - INAAM | 4 | 5/1 | 6/1 | 6/1 | |
| N :255 | 06 - KALK BAY | 8 | 16/1 | 25/1 | 16/1 | |
| N :255 | 07 - KINGSLEY KLARION | 6 | 20/1 | 22/1 | 25/1 | |
| N :255 | 08 - SHORT WORK | 10 | 10/1 | 10/1 | 12/1 | |
| N :255 | 09 - MON BEAU VISAGE | 11 | 8/1 | 15/2 | 9/2 | |
| N :255 | 10 - LIKE NO OTHER | 7 | 16/1 | 25/1 | 20/1 | |
| N :255 | 11 - AMOOD | 1 | 14/1 | 16/1 | 16/1 | |
| N :255 | 12 - CHAPLIN BAY | 12 | 14/1 | 16/1 | 11/1 | |
| N :255 | 13 - DEANSGATE | 14 | 12/1 | 12/1 | 10/1 | |
| N :255 | 14 - RALPHY BOY | 13 | 33/1 | 40/1 | 40/1 | |
| L 3:10 | 01 - BOOM THE GROOM | 8 | 14/1 | 16/1 | 14/1 | |
| L 3:10 | 02 - DOC SPORTELLO | 14 | 33/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 | |
| L 3:10 | 03 - ENCORE D'OR | 11 | 20/1 | 20/1 | 20/1 | |
| L 3:10 | 04 - GRACIOUS JOHN | 4 | 14/1 | 14/1 | 12/1 | |
| L 3:10 | 05 - KIMBERELLA | 5 | 7/2 | 7/2 | 7/2 | |
| L 3:10 | 06 - LANCELOT DU LAC | 6 | 100/30 | 4/1 | 4/1 | |
| L 3:10 | 07 - MYTHMAKER | 1 | 8/1 | 10/1 | 9/1 | |
| L 3:10 | 08 - PRETEND | 12 | 9/2 | 4/1 | 11/2 | |
| L 3:10 | 09 - REALIZE | 9 | 20/1 | 22/1 | 28/1 | |
| L 3:10 | 10 - ROYAL BIRTH | 3 | 7/1 | 15/2 | 81 | |
| L 3:10 | 11 - SIGN OF THE KODIAC | 2 | 33/1 | 33/1 | 66/1 | |
| L 3:10 | 12 - VERNE CASTLE | 10 | 20/1 | 28/1 | 50/1 | |
| N 3:25 | 01 - TAWDEEA | 7 | 16/1 | 16/1 | 22/1 | |
| N 3:25 | 02 - TO BE WILD | 10 | 3/1 | 4/1 | 4/1 | |
| N 3:25 | 03 - FABRICATE | 5 | 8/1 | 10/1 | 9/1 | |
| N 3:25 | 04 - ABAREEQ | 11 | 8/1 | 12/1 | 12/1 | |
| N 3:25 | 05 - BALLYNANTY | 13 | 33/1 | 22/1 | 28/1 | |
| N 3:25 | 06 - WILD HACKED | 14 | 9/2 | 6/1 | 13/2 | |
| N 3:25 | 07 - ERIK THE RED | 4 | 14/1 | 12/1 | 11/1 | |
| N 3:25 | 08 - HAMELIN | 2 | 16/1 | 25/1 | 28/1 | |
| N 3:25 | 09 - GOOD RUN | 3 | 6/1 | 15/2 | 8/1 | |
| N 3:25 | 10 - MUSTAJEER | 1 | 10/1 | 9/1 | 14/1 | |
| N 3:25 | 11 - INTENSE TANGO | 6 | 33/1 | 33/1 | 50/1 | |
| N 3:25 | 12 - MISTIROC | 12 | 25/1 | 25/1 | 20/1 | |
| N 3:25 | 13 - LORD GEORGE | 9 | 14/1 | 12/1 | 14/1 | |
| N 3:25 | 14 -- FINAL | 8 | 14/1 | 16/1 | 10/1 | |
| L 3:40 | 01 - ALFRED HUTCHINSON | 1 | 33/1 | 40/1 | 50/1 | |
| L 3:40 | 02 - DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT | 8 | 20/1 | 28/1 | 40/1 | |
| L 3:40 | 03 - ENNAADD | 2 | 13/8 | 6/4 | 6/4 | |
| L 3:40 | 04 - KEYSTROKE | 12 | 7/1 | 11/1 | 10/1 | |
| L 3:40 | 05 - MY TARGET | 9 | 7/1 | 8/1 | 9/1 | |
| L 3:40 | 06 - MYTHICAL MADNESS | 13 | 33/1 | 40/1 | 40/1 | |
| L 3:40 | 07 - NIMR | 3 | 14/1 | 16/1 | 20/1 | |
| L 3:40 | 08 - QURBAAN | 10 | 5/1 | 7/1 | 7/1 | |
| L 3:40 | 09 - SALATEEN | 11 | 14/1 | 16/1 | 14/1 | |
| L 3:40 | 10 SOVERIGN DEBT | 6 | 6/1 | 6/1 |
Comments
LINGFIELD (A/W)
Key Characteristics
The Lingfield all weather course uses polytrack and the surface is probably the fastest of all the A/W racecourses in the UK. The belief is that front runners cannot win at Lingfield and because of this you often get falsely run races as nobody wants to lead. It is actually possible to win from the front if a horse gets given a soft lead. Otherwise the final turn which is preceded by a downhill section appears to act as a kind of slingshot similar to that in cycling, and the lead can change many times in the last furlong as horses shoot from the pack.5 FURLONGS:
No particular bias here at all despite what the media would have you believe about the perils of being drawn wide.
6 FURLONGS:
A very even spread suggests little advantage exists. The conclusion is no bias exists.
7 FURLONGS:
Not a big bias here, although it is interesting that the outside stall has won twice as many races as any other single stall. When horses are drawn in this outside stall you will often here pundits say that they have no chance as they are drawn in the car park. This obviously isn't true.
8 FURLONGS:
Rather surprisingly there appears to be a slight bias towards high drawn runners, and it seems a disadvantage to be drawn low
PACE ANALYSIS:
Lingfield has the reputation of a perfect course for hold up horses, with the last horse to commit for home normally winning. However the stats don’t back this up.
As shown below apart from over 5 furlongs where hold up horses are favoured, over the other distances Lingfield is pretty average in terms of pace bias amongst the all weather courses.
5 Furlongs – 5th out of 5 courses
6 Furlongs - 3rd out of 5 courses
7 Furlongs – 2nd out of 4 courses
8 Furlongs – 3rd out of 5 courses
END
NEWCASTLE (A/W)
Key Characteristics
Newcastle is the only All Weather racecourse in the country which has a straight mile. Together with its width this very much means that it is a galloping track. The surface is Tapeta, which is the same as the Chelmsford and Wolverhampton surfaces.5 FURLONGS:
Obviously still very early days with little data to go on. But at the moment high draws, particularly very high does seem to be favoured over 5 furlongs at Newcastle with so far 9 of the 21 handicap races being won by horses drawn in one of the 2 highest stalls.
6 FURLONGS:
Very little data to go on yet, and I wouldn't want to draw any conclusions.
7 FURLONGS:
Like all of the distances on the straight at Newcastle their doesn't appear to be much of a draw bias, with high very slightly favoured
ONE MILE:
Not a great deal of data to go on, but early impressions are that any bias is negated over a mile where the horses have plenty of time to obtain track position.
END
Petite Jack 9/1 draw 6
Watersmeet 13/2 draw 14
Natural Scenery 4/1 draw 11
Aprovado 11/2 draw 12
Excessable 12/1 draw 2
Safe Voyage 7/1 draw 2
Inaam 5/1 draw 4
Mutamid 9/2 draw 3
Lancelot Du Lac 7/2 draw 6
Kimberella 7/2 draw 5
Royal Birth 13/2 draw 3
Wild Hacked 6/1 draw 14
Abareeq 12/1 draw 11
To Be Wild 4/1 draw 10
Ennaadd (BANKER) 11/8
Inevitably in these types of fields there is at least one outsider that knocks everyone out of the SCOOP6, so confidence level is very low, but just for fun, we wouldn't go near this with a barge pole in reality.
Also our strategy is to cover at least 60% of the betting market in each leg.
With the number of runners here, combined with how open the races are, this is not possible, so it is literally, just a hypothetical punt as the strategy is for smaller fields and less competitive races.
Anyhow, Enjoy!
11:31:04
Betfair Bet ID O/0786566/0000659
Pinzolo - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
9
Cohesion - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
6
Art Collection - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
7
Orient Class - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
13
New Road Side - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
11
Aprovado - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
7
Florencio - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
8.5
Mon Beau Visage - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
5
Chaplin Bay - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
11
Kimberella - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
4.5
Lancelot Du Lac - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
5
To Be Wild - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
5
Ennaadd - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
2.37
Cohesion
Mon Beau Visage
I am not as brave as Wynne to attempt the SCOOP6 but will do some Placepots at Lingfield and Newcastle. Will post my selections here shortly:
Bet Confirmation Required
You have made the following selections. Please confirm to place bet.
Bet Confirmation Required
You have made the following selections. Please confirm to place bet.
It would just be too big a perm to add any more, it's certainly a "would be" long shot.
GL to all those having a bet.
I don't think Winning Story was in your original selections on Wynne's initial thread, which was a shame, other wise we'd still be in with our "virtual" bet. GL with the Placepot.
Cheers,
G