I am a self confessed recreational punter and my philosophy is to look for value bets and usually ew especially with EPRs.
I would expect to do ok on that basis over a long period as horses priced at 8/1 to 16/1 will have better value than short priced favourites. I would also expect to have very swingy short term results.
I dont expect to do so well on live days as picking 3 races out of 6 and looking for likely winners instead of value is alien to me.
I am in the nap league for fun and to learn. Having the results tracked and measured with other recs and serious punters and seeing what sort of selections the winning punters back can only help me improve.
I self exclude from removals as that process is very difficult and totally alien to me. I am also not in the syndicate.
So back to the naps league I am already caveating my input with the tag novice recreational. For live days feel free to ignore me. If my results on live days dont improve then your method of excluding on performance will count me out anyway!
Thanks for considering my post on the other thread and note your post above.
I like horses study the form but am no super punter in fact I have a tendency of my favourite horses and this lets me down when I cant let go of them, see my Four Candles Ratings thread. . So with me if you see I keep picking the same horses take it with a pinch of salt. With the naps I am likely to be more suspect than if I contribute to the Removers as I look for value and am more likely to hit a bigger winner every so often rather than have a nice run of winners. The second scenario is probably a better line for you as you want consistency rather than ten losers one winner. Also you want the people who have the knack to select the right horse for their nap(s). The number of times in my ratings I pick winners as my "other fancies" and don't put them in my main tips.
Whatever the scenario, information is key and the more we have the better we will be . You have the difficult job of
The NAP's and REMOVAL tables are mainly a way for people to have fun and also be involved with the process, so don't worry if you feel you are not knowledgeable enough etc, it's all about the enjoyment of participating imo.
(My last post was explaining how may use the tables in the future, but I do want to re-emphasise that it should also be a fun thing to, and a way for people to have their say with the choices picked)
Of course it has the ancillary benefit for me of working out who our top NAP's people and REMOVER people are.
But SO much more volume is needed before it is of use in that regard.
So if you want to, please do enjoy both league tables, syndicate member or not.
Cheers,
G
P.S. Anyone who manages to show any profit whatsoever in the NAP's league is doing pretty good, especially as it is based on SP only, and in reality "Best Odds Guaranteed" would mean their profit would likely be more. (SP usually has a betting percentage of at least 20%)
One nap needed from first 6 races SYNDICATE NAP SELECTIONS AND RESULTS FOR MONDAY 15TH 2017 AT WETHERBY: 1) JORDZ16 3.25 Zodiakos 2) MAXALLY: 3) MICKYBLUE: 2:50 LUCKY BEGGAR 4) MISTY4ME 1.50: ALWAHSH 5) MKGUNNER: 2.50 - Appleberry 6) PHANTOM66: 3:25 DUTCH ARTIST 7) SNUFFER: 3.25: ZODIAKOS 8) STAYORGO: 2.20: BENJAMIN THOMAS 9) VAIGRET: 2.50 LYDIAS PLACE 10) WYNNE1938: 4.30 NEWT 11) ZADOC: 2:50 TYLERY WONDER Posted by MICKYBLUE
OK, I say this in jest. But for the eagle eyed amongst you, how many people have written their selection in the correct format once pasted into Micky's list above, and who are they?
Comments
Lydia's Place.
Won last time out over 5f and although gone up 3lb she is still well weighted on good 2 year old form. Rae Guest also a notable trainer of Fillies.
Thanks for considering my post on the other thread and note your post above.
I like horses study the form but am no super punter in fact I have a tendency of my favourite horses and this lets me down when I cant let go of them, see my Four Candles Ratings thread. . So with me if you see I keep picking the same horses take it with a pinch of salt. With the naps I am likely to be more suspect than if I contribute to the Removers as I look for value and am more likely to hit a bigger winner every so often rather than have a nice run of winners. The second scenario is probably a better line for you as you want consistency rather than ten losers one winner. Also you want the people who have the knack to select the right horse for their nap(s). The number of times in my ratings I pick winners as my "other fancies" and don't put them in my main tips.
Whatever the scenario, information is key and the more we have the better we will be . You have the difficult job of
SYNDICATE NAP SELECTIONS AND RESULTS FOR MONDAY 15TH 2017
AT WETHERBY:
1) JORDZ16
3.25: ZODIAKOS
2) MAXALLY:
2.50: APPLEBERRY
3) MICKYBLUE:
2.50: LUCKY BEGGAR (11/4 WINNER)
4) MISTY4ME
1.50: ALWAHSH
5) MKGUNNER:
4.00: MAKE ON MADAM
6) PHANTOM66:
3.25: DUTCH ARTIST
7) SNUFFER:
3.25: ZODIAKOS
8) STAYORGO:
2.20: BENJAMIN THOMAS 3rd (placed)
9) VAIGRET:
2.50: LYDIAS PLACE N/R
10) WYNNE1938:
4.30: NEWT
11) ZADOC:
Hint, mine is correct.
It's like spot the difference. :=)
G