Finding this very difficult. Jackpot is a serious amount and our £290 is very thin ( we could do with twice that amount ) to give ourselves a realistic chance. Would like to know how much Graham thinks is required for a +ev chance R Posted by zadoc
Still think it is +ev R, but in a higher variance way.
Normally I aim for approximately a 1 in 10 chance of winning statistically (and turn it down if it's greater than 1 in 12)
Under the proviso that if we win we get /> 12 times our stake back as an average.
This is more like a 1 in 25 chance (as I mentioned on the other thread), but still +ev as I think the average return would be greater than 25 times our stake.
So +ev still, yes, although chance of winning less than normal, but potential return greater than normal.
In Response to Re: ** JACKPOT SYNDICATE ** GO LIVE AT WORCESTER TOMORROW (SUN 25/04/17) ** REMOVALS SPREADSHEET - PLEASE REMOVE FOURTEEN ** : UST NOTICED YOU HAVE FOREVER MY FRIEND TWICE gRAHAM Posted by vaigret
TY, first one should be MOOORLAND'S JACK, will change now. TY
In Response to Re: ** JACKPOT SYNDICATE ** GO LIVE AT WORCESTER TOMORROW (SUN 25/04/17) ** ADDITIONS SPREADSHEET NOW AVAILABLE ** : I would add HallingsComet, he has pace and will probably lead. Time form comments Useful hurdler in 2014. Showed plenty of ability remains when making winning start for this yard in AW Flat handicap in November but stopped quickly at Stratford last time. He attempted a Class 3 hurdle where he unseated rider( In March 2017) Then dropped to a class 4 hurdle last time and weakened ( IN April 2017) 7 9 [47¼] Hallings Comet 12/1 Marc Goldstein Shaun Lycett Marc Goldstein Shaun Lycett 8 11 2 106 30 67 – ch g Halling (USA) - Landinium (ITY) (Lando) Raced keenly, led 2nd, soon clear, came back to the field after 5th, headed and weakened 2 out (tchd 16/1) Having said that,I like Sailors Warn ( He should win) Posted by wynne1938
To a certain extent Im glad we didn't get to this race, Firstly I flagged it up as a C & D winner and then agreed with Graham it wasn't a horse to put in and then wynne suggests we go for it with same and what looked like a very right decision. god this game kicks you in the nu ts when you are down sometimes
In Response to Re: ** JACKPOT SYNDICATE ** GO LIVE AT WORCESTER TOMORROW (SUN 25/04/17) ** REMOVALS SPREADSHEET - PLEASE REMOVE FOURTEEN ** : Correct except for sweeping rock, should be -8PTS Posted by Snuffer
Noticed that and changed it as you were checking, should be right now.
Comments
Normally I aim for approximately a 1 in 10 chance of winning statistically (and turn it down if it's greater than 1 in 12)
Under the proviso that if we win we get /> 12 times our stake back as an average.
This is more like a 1 in 25 chance (as I mentioned on the other thread), but still +ev as I think the average return would be greater than 25 times our stake.
So +ev still, yes, although chance of winning less than normal, but potential return greater than normal.
Cheers,
G
2.10: 06 - POLICY BREACH + 3PTS
2.40: 04 - ROMEO IS BLEEDING +2PTS
3.10: 04 - FOUNDATION MAN +3PTS
4.10: 06 - CABERNET D'ARLENE +5PTS
STAYORGO SCORED 37 PTS FROM 14 SELECTIONS AND HAD 1 WINNER
Cheers,
G
Cheers,
G
Cheers,
G
SWEEPING ROCK MINUS 8 PTS NOT PLUS 3