I've had a few bets at varying prices for Vikings to win Super Bowl, & also for them to win the NFC.
Not from my knowledge, I should add - the bets were suggested on the bass of "value" by Mr Ambo.
Didn't follow the Superbowl/conference markets, but can imagine they will have been a decent price at various points during the regular season while people were waiting for the wheels to fall off the Case Keenum hype train. So yeah, probably some value there at times.
I've had a few bets at varying prices for Vikings to win Super Bowl, & also for them to win the NFC.
Not from my knowledge, I should add - the bets were suggested on the bass of "value" by Mr Ambo.
Didn't follow the Superbowl/conference markets, but can imagine they will have been a decent price at various points during the regular season while people were waiting for the wheels to fall off the Case Keenum hype train. So yeah, probably some value there at times.
It's a pure "value" suggestion, nothing to do with whether we think they will win - it's just betting clear, proven, value. (The only way to bet profitably, of course).
I hope Mr C does not mind, but here's an insight into his thinking, as per Betting Emporium;
"Having worked out the prices for each team we can easily do the same for the Super Bowl. Having established that Minnesota are 44% to make it to the big game and they face the four possible rivals 64%, 27.5%, 6.5% and 2% of the time we just need to come up with a number for the chance of the Vikings winning against each of them. Given that they are at home and have a decent home edge I made them a 2 Point or 55% chance vs New England a 5 Point or 66% favourite against Pittsburgh, a 7 Point or 75% favourite vs Jacksonville and an 11.5 Point or 88% favourite vs the Titans. So we just do 64% x 55%, 27.5% x 66%, 6.5% x 75% and 2% x 88%. Add that lot up and you get 60% which is the "average" chance that the Vikings will have if they reach the Super Bowl, multiply that 60% by the 44% chance of them getting there and that makes the Vikings a 26.5% chance to win the whole thing or 11/4 in old money. The current market is 4/1 and that offers a bit of value."
I got on a little earlier, & bigger, but that's the logic.
So whatever happens, win or lose, it's a good bet.
RSPCA & Groggy (not played many Mtts with them but would like to be as good one day)
Cash
K0BAYASHl - because I'm gel of his HU skills!
IH8UButler - He is a good thinking aggressive reg that puts me in a lot of tough spots and he's better than me which is annoying but learn a lot from when I play him:).
Donttellmum - he can play 18 tables at one time top respect for that and we have played some sick pots vs each other.
Would like to one day get my cash game to the standards of TheFisshhh , Groggy, AlanCarr, NickD, Bolly & Rosiedog very good cash game players that I look up to.
You rate him? He’s rubbish! Haha
Think you are giving me too much credit mate but will take the compliment. To be fair I only play 1table on iPad most of the time these days so probably focusing a lot better than the old 12 tabling days of yore. If sky ever get round to updating the software to multi table on iPad you might see my standard dropping
My own top picks would be
alancarr -was playing 20nl not so long ago, these days?
absolute legend!
The Grid - always solid
TommyD - fortunately only plays lower stakes occasionally!
Honourable mention to all the regs that will start tables with me (which is pretty much everyone -that might say something about my skills lol)
I've had a few bets at varying prices for Vikings to win Super Bowl, & also for them to win the NFC.
Not from my knowledge, I should add - the bets were suggested on the bass of "value" by Mr Ambo.
Didn't follow the Superbowl/conference markets, but can imagine they will have been a decent price at various points during the regular season while people were waiting for the wheels to fall off the Case Keenum hype train. So yeah, probably some value there at times.
It's a pure "value" suggestion, nothing to do with whether we think they will win - it's just betting clear, proven, value. (The only way to bet profitably, of course).
I hope Mr C does not mind, but here's an insight into his thinking, as per Betting Emporium;
"Having worked out the prices for each team we can easily do the same for the Super Bowl. Having established that Minnesota are 44% to make it to the big game and they face the four possible rivals 64%, 27.5%, 6.5% and 2% of the time we just need to come up with a number for the chance of the Vikings winning against each of them. Given that they are at home and have a decent home edge I made them a 2 Point or 55% chance vs New England a 5 Point or 66% favourite against Pittsburgh, a 7 Point or 75% favourite vs Jacksonville and an 11.5 Point or 88% favourite vs the Titans. So we just do 64% x 55%, 27.5% x 66%, 6.5% x 75% and 2% x 88%. Add that lot up and you get 60% which is the "average" chance that the Vikings will have if they reach the Super Bowl, multiply that 60% by the 44% chance of them getting there and that makes the Vikings a 26.5% chance to win the whole thing or 11/4 in old money. The current market is 4/1 and that offers a bit of value."
I got on a little earlier, & bigger, but that's the logic.
So whatever happens, win or lose, it's a good bet.
I'm probably 55/45 the other way in a Pats/Vikings Superbowl, even factoring in the home Superbowl. It's still a decent price though.
Based on Channing's numbers, there's a ~35% of a Pats/Vikings Superbowl and you can get 11/4 elsewhere on that before the games tonight. Tempted to have a few quid on that.
Comments
I hope Mr C does not mind, but here's an insight into his thinking, as per Betting Emporium;
"Having worked out the prices for each team we can easily do the same for the Super Bowl. Having established that Minnesota are 44% to make it to the big game and they face the four possible rivals 64%, 27.5%, 6.5% and 2% of the time we just need to come up with a number for the chance of the Vikings winning against each of them. Given that they are at home and have a decent home edge I made them a 2 Point or 55% chance vs New England a 5 Point or 66% favourite against Pittsburgh, a 7 Point or 75% favourite vs Jacksonville and an 11.5 Point or 88% favourite vs the Titans. So we just do 64% x 55%, 27.5% x 66%, 6.5% x 75% and 2% x 88%. Add that lot up and you get 60% which is the "average" chance that the Vikings will have if they reach the Super Bowl, multiply that 60% by the 44% chance of them getting there and that makes the Vikings a 26.5% chance to win the whole thing or 11/4 in old money. The current market is 4/1 and that offers a bit of value."
I got on a little earlier, & bigger, but that's the logic.
So whatever happens, win or lose, it's a good bet.
Think you are giving me too much credit mate but will take the compliment. To be fair I only play 1table on iPad most of the time these days so probably focusing a lot better than the old 12 tabling days of yore. If sky ever get round to updating the software to multi table on iPad you might see my standard dropping
My own top picks would be
alancarr -was playing 20nl not so long ago, these days?
absolute legend!
The Grid - always solid
TommyD - fortunately only plays lower stakes occasionally!
Honourable mention to all the regs that will start tables with me (which is pretty much everyone -that might say something about my skills lol)
Based on Channing's numbers, there's a ~35% of a Pats/Vikings Superbowl and you can get 11/4 elsewhere on that before the games tonight. Tempted to have a few quid on that.
For me in DYMs most tricky/hardest/unpredictable are
Timmyrara
Johnny_e
Dialbl4
(And Tikay1 when he played nlhe ones!)
For Mtts
Railtard
MattBates (of course)
Senor Begs
But plenty more and I always like the challenge of playing you Jac35