well aussie i read an article last week saying there are 19600 diff poss flops in t hold em so id say really unlikely hence my incredulity at this being a regular occurrence in online poker.
hi ali, i asked whether you could go first and guess because i think you'll be surprised at the answers. first though, you need to be more precise in your question.
i will try and phrase your questions...
1. what is the probability of seeing 2 flops in a row that are, in themselves, 3 card straights? 2. what is the probability of seeing a pair on the flop, i.e. in the 3 community cards? 3. what is the probability of seeing four suited cards out of 5 cards?
aussie i dont think they are so great they are incomprehensible but to suggest any of the above are simply normal is possibly overstating it.Rather than playing guessing games why not state what they are if you know?
i reckon you think the chances are so big that they are almost impossible to comprehend. let alone work out.
you will be surprised how normal they actually are.
if you could get a handle on these things you will improve your game.
I suspect his real problem is understanding Variance, Rob. The day before yesterday he finished 2nd of 94 in a £2 Deepstack for a £30 odd quid return, but there's been no mention of that.
No matter how good a player is, he or she won't finish 2nd in a 94 runner affair with much frequency.
Like you & so many others here, I'm happy to try & help this player. He's going to need to want to be taught, & willing to learn though.
Once again the implication being that im a bad player and mustve got lucky a lot to place 2nd. Maybe i was lucky enough not to get caught in those hands for a very rare change eh? Although there were plenty who were.
Once again the implication being that im a bad player and mustve got lucky a lot to place 2nd. Maybe i was lucky enough not to get caught in those hands for a very rare change eh? Although there were plenty who were.
The implication was quite the opposite. It just shows how variance works. We have to win a lot of flips to finish 2nd. Mostly, we don't. Because the maths works against us. It's simple maths.
The implication was also that these "miracle boards" happen to all of us, we remember the beats & forget when we get a result. It's human nature.
Big stacks don't always win, & nobody here gets robbed.
You suffer from variance exactly as we all do. That's how poker works, on every site, & "Live".
You just gotta learn to roll with dem punches.
Stick a few hands up on the Poker Clinic, too, you'll get a ton of help & good advice from some of the best players here. They get the same beats as you & me, but they motor along with a bigger stack because they are better players. But we CAN improve if we wish, all of us.
cheers for that mumsie. yeah ive enjoyed a few decent games with ya over the time ive been on here. youre decent yourself. Gonna look into the maths/probability a lot more maybe itll stop me throwing my toys outta the pram eh? haha.
you have had some really good constructive feed back in the thread from very smart people, I really hope you take it on board and run with it as they say.
Comments
i will try and phrase your questions...
1. what is the probability of seeing 2 flops in a row that are, in themselves, 3 card straights?
2. what is the probability of seeing a pair on the flop, i.e. in the 3 community cards?
3. what is the probability of seeing four suited cards out of 5 cards?
if those were your questions, have a guess.
i reckon you think the chances are so big that they are almost impossible to comprehend. let alone work out.
you will be surprised how normal they actually are.
if you could get a handle on these things you will improve your game.
No matter how good a player is, he or she won't finish 2nd in a 94 runner affair with much frequency.
Like you & so many others here, I'm happy to try & help this player. He's going to need to want to be taught, & willing to learn though.
The implication was also that these "miracle boards" happen to all of us, we remember the beats & forget when we get a result. It's human nature.
You just need to take a step back & think. IMO, that is.
In the last 2 weeks you have started these;
https://www.skypoker.com/secure/poker/sky_lobby/community/forums#/discussion/172857/why-does-the-big-stack-always-seem-to-luck-out
...and this;
https://www.skypoker.com/secure/poker/sky_lobby/community/forums#/discussion/172833/sick-of-being-robbed-on-here/p1
Big stacks don't always win, & nobody here gets robbed.
You suffer from variance exactly as we all do. That's how poker works, on every site, & "Live".
You just gotta learn to roll with dem punches.
Stick a few hands up on the Poker Clinic, too, you'll get a ton of help & good advice from some of the best players here. They get the same beats as you & me, but they motor along with a bigger stack because they are better players. But we CAN improve if we wish, all of us.
Good luck.
Full mark for Aussie for throwing the questions straight back at you. You should know how to work this stuff out for obvious reasons.
you have had some really good constructive feed back in the thread from very smart people, I really hope you take it on board and run with it as they say.
gl luck hope it goes well.
Do you like peanut butter eggs alibone?
Not only on Sky but at WSOP as well Allibone