If they were priced in, can it not still be a better decision to fold?
No. By definition, 'priced in' means the optimal decision is to call. Therefore, it cannot be a better decision to fold.
Conversely, if folding were the better decision, the statement that someone is 'priced in' would be untrue.
I suspect the kind of situation you're thinking of is where the person might make a call that would be + chip EV but -£££ EV, such as calling as a marginal favourite on/near the bubble of a satellite.
It is possible that someone could incorrectly believe they're priced in, but in fact the correct decision is to fold. I see it a lot in DYMs and satellites where people massively undervalue survival.
If they were priced in, can it not still be a better decision to fold?
No. By definition, 'priced in' means the optimal decision is to call. Therefore, it cannot be a better decision to fold.
Conversely, if folding were the better decision, the statement that someone is 'priced in' would be untrue.
I suspect the kind of situation you're thinking of is where the person might make a call that would be + chip EV but -£££ EV, such as calling as a marginal favourite on/near the bubble of a satellite.
It is possible that someone could incorrectly believe they're priced in, but in fact the correct decision is to fold. I see it a lot in DYMs and satellites where people massively undervalue survival.
Thanks Evilpingu, but putting a third of your stack at risk with 6-7 seems a bad move in an mtt. I can see that it is a good move in a cash game, but we value our chip stack a lot more in tournaments
three possibilities 1 she miscalculated 2 she calculated correctly but will lose her initial raise 3 she calculated correctly but thinks the odds are good enough to gamble 1/3 of her top stack
three possibilities 1 she miscalculated 2 she calculated correctly but will lose her initial raise 3 she calculated correctly but thinks the odds are good enough to gamble 1/3 of her top stack
isn't that the first time you've mentioned that initially she had raised?
it makes it a little more likely that she was priced in.
three possibilities 1 she miscalculated 2 she calculated correctly but will lose her initial raise 3 she calculated correctly but thinks the odds are good enough to gamble 1/3 of her top stack
isn't that the first time you've mentioned that initially she had raised?
it makes it a little more likely that she was priced in.
Correct, it is the first time, I didn't realise until I was typing it out ... all the more reason for me to learn how to post a progressive hand
If they were priced in, can it not still be a better decision to fold?
No. By definition, 'priced in' means the optimal decision is to call. Therefore, it cannot be a better decision to fold.
Conversely, if folding were the better decision, the statement that someone is 'priced in' would be untrue.
I suspect the kind of situation you're thinking of is where the person might make a call that would be + chip EV but -£££ EV, such as calling as a marginal favourite on/near the bubble of a satellite.
It is possible that someone could incorrectly believe they're priced in, but in fact the correct decision is to fold. I see it a lot in DYMs and satellites where people massively undervalue survival.
Thanks Evilpingu, but putting a third of your stack at risk with 6-7 seems a bad move in an mtt. I can see that it is a good move in a cash game, but we value our chip stack a lot more in tournaments
It depends. It's too simplistic to say "It's an MTT and 1/3rd of our stack, therefore bad".
If it's a hyper turbo where everyone has 10 big blinds or less, so a third of your stack is like 3 big blinds tops, and you've already got 1bb in the middle if calling from BB against a pretty wide range, then it depends on ICM but is probably going to be absolutely fine to call 76s.
If it's a bounty hunter, then depending on the size of the bounty, again it may also be surprisingly correct to call more big blinds than you'd typically expect, despite having poor equity against the player's range, because the 30-40% of the time we win the hand and the bounty compensates for the chip EV loss.
If it's the second level of the Sunday Roller and the person just has KK+ every time, or a satellite, then it's terrible.
It's generally going to be bad in a cash game too, because to call off a third of a stack pre (assuming we have 100bb and someone has shoved like 30-35bb), the shove is going to be a tighter range, and we need far closer to 50% to correctly call than we would in a BH or a really short stacked situation like above because of stack depths.
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The hand itself @zenbudhist : As others have said, hand history is needed because 1/3rd of someone's stack doesn't really tell us that much.
It could be 1/3rd of a 10bb stack from the Big Blind and you have a bounty (Which would mean calling is almost certainly okay) or 1/3rd of a 200bb stack (Calling definitely isn't okay), and those are entirely different situations.
For that reason, I think it's generally a terrible idea to use proportion of our stack to determine whether we should call or fold. That whole approach focuses solely on our own hand strength, and it ignores every variable and every piece of information we're being given.
Put it this way: If you said something along the lines of "88 is worth calling 20% of my stack", you'd make some really terrible calls pre-flop if you started a tournament with 500 big blinds and someone has 6bet pre for 90bb and just has the nuts every time. You'd also make some really terrible folds late in tournaments when someone shoves on you and is light most of the time.
I also remember it being pretty common advice around 2007ish (when I started teaching myself Poker) to use x% of your stack in a tournament to speculate with junk early in tournaments - and it's just horrible advice in every way imaginable.
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Reasons people are asking for hand history/more information:
We need to see all actions made in the hand and stack sizes relative to the size of the big blind, because that affects the range of hands a person can have.
The type of tournament affects the decision massively too - If it's a satellite, or a BH, that is also information needed to analyse a hand and give the best possible advice. Calling 76s in a satellite is very likely to be terrible. Calling 76s in a bounty hunter is more likely to be reasonable depending on other variables.
Payout situation (e.g. are we in the money yet, are there any significant pay jumps coming up) would also be nice, but those often aren't readily available, and it's not too difficult to guesstimate from things like looking at the blind level and/or stating that there were roughly X people left in the tournament when the hand happened.
It used to just be a case of highlighting the text from the hand history and pasting it in. The new forum doesn't seem to like it though. It just tends to paste in like this, which is a bit inconvenient.
Hand History #1235748594 (19:31 28/12/2017) Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance phlwbb29 Small blind 150.00 150.00 5410.00 EvilPingu Big blind 300.00 450.00 1980.00 Your hole cards 5 J
Useful vid there from mumsie showing how to post hand histories, but I'm not sure we can let that through without asking if the fold there with AA was too tight
Whilst I'm here, some useful explanations from Pingu as to why more info is required (I mean, you don't need a hand history to state whether it's a bounty hunter), but at a basic level you need odds of winning against perceived range, pot odds, then considerations on how valuable your chips are at that time (ICM). Might pull up Pingu on the 6bet pre example as it's going to depend on the size of our 5bet, and ICM will say early on in a tournament losing 20% when super deep is not going to do that much damage to your chances of winning. Not great of course, but not a disaster if the pot odds after what is certainly a bad 5bet look pretty good.
Pingu knows all of that of course, just thought I'd add to show that those factors really are key in deciding to call or fold.
I know the point has been partially made but bounty hunters in particular offer great scenarios for hands like this, you've got the normal pot odds, plus the £ amount bounty (which is usually worth a few ladder spots), but also getting a bigger stack from spots like this also provides you with an expectation to cash future bounties as a big stack. Which is why you see some eye-watering calls and therefore beats in these games.
Way more than I expected to write just came on to quip the AA. Disconnection issue @mumsie ?!
Hope ime not derailing the thread,a wee question (without looking it up) What's the Best hand to play against pocket aces all in pre flop? Apart from you also having pocket aces of course.
Hope ime not derailing the thread,a wee question (without looking it up) What's the Best hand to play against pocket aces all in pre flop? Apart from you also having pocket aces of course.
87s and 76s, where we don't share any suits with the pocket aces (e.g. 87 of spades vs two red aces) are both around 23% to beat pocket aces AIPF. From memory, 87s is better by a couple of hundredths of a percent.
Sharing a suit (e.g. 87 of Hearts vs two red aces) knocks about a percent off, because it makes it slightly harder to make a flush, and we now lose against four of that suit on the board.
If you're interested in hand percentages, I recommend getting Equilab. It's completely free and does % calculations for you. I use it when looking at hand histories after a session to see how much % I have vs my opponent's range and determine whether I made a good/bad call.
However, even if you don't do proper Poker study/Hand History evaluation etc, it's still kinda fun to play around with.
It would be against the T&Cs of pretty much every site to use that while playing to help with decisions, but it's virtually impossible on here without a time bank to do that anyway. The Stars software had a tantrum once because I had it minimised in my taskbar before trying to sit at a table, so sites will know if you did try to use it to help with decisions in game.
(@Tikay10 there's affiliate links on that site, but not on the download page. Please remove the link if that's a problem - ty)
Pingu,I like to mess around with holdemhelpem poker odds calculator, it give 56 suited as the best hand (if different suit from the aces) As the best hand to play against pocket aces,their calculations are only over a 20 million hand sample,so I agree with you. Ace 9 offsuit is the worst. 66 is the best pocket pair to play against aces,over the same sample. Like yourself I find it fascinating and like to mess around looking at that stuff.
Pingu,I like to mess around with holdemhelpem poker odds calculator, it give 56 suited as the best hand (if different suit from the aces) As the best hand to play against pocket aces,their calculations are only over a 20 million hand sample,so I agree with you. Ace 9 offsuit is the worst. 66 is the best pocket pair to play against aces,over the same sample. Like yourself I find it fascinating and like to mess around looking at that stuff.
It's not one hand that fares better than all, it could do in a simulation, but this problem doesn't require a simulation of 20m hands, it's just probability.
Why would 66 have any more chance of beating AA than 77 or 88? Why could 56s be any better or worse than 89s?
The AA hand doesn't impact on how likely these holdings are to create a better hand by the river, so they must be equivalent. JTs suffers for example because AA blocks some paths to make straights for JT.
Comments
Conversely, if folding were the better decision, the statement that someone is 'priced in' would be untrue.
I suspect the kind of situation you're thinking of is where the person might make a call that would be + chip EV but -£££ EV, such as calling as a marginal favourite on/near the bubble of a satellite.
It is possible that someone could incorrectly believe they're priced in, but in fact the correct decision is to fold. I see it a lot in DYMs and satellites where people massively undervalue survival.
isn't that the first time you've mentioned that initially she had raised?
it makes it a little more likely that she was priced in.
If it's a hyper turbo where everyone has 10 big blinds or less, so a third of your stack is like 3 big blinds tops, and you've already got 1bb in the middle if calling from BB against a pretty wide range, then it depends on ICM but is probably going to be absolutely fine to call 76s.
If it's a bounty hunter, then depending on the size of the bounty, again it may also be surprisingly correct to call more big blinds than you'd typically expect, despite having poor equity against the player's range, because the 30-40% of the time we win the hand and the bounty compensates for the chip EV loss.
If it's the second level of the Sunday Roller and the person just has KK+ every time, or a satellite, then it's terrible.
It's generally going to be bad in a cash game too, because to call off a third of a stack pre (assuming we have 100bb and someone has shoved like 30-35bb), the shove is going to be a tighter range, and we need far closer to 50% to correctly call than we would in a BH or a really short stacked situation like above because of stack depths.
---
The hand itself @zenbudhist : As others have said, hand history is needed because 1/3rd of someone's stack doesn't really tell us that much.
It could be 1/3rd of a 10bb stack from the Big Blind and you have a bounty (Which would mean calling is almost certainly okay) or 1/3rd of a 200bb stack (Calling definitely isn't okay), and those are entirely different situations.
For that reason, I think it's generally a terrible idea to use proportion of our stack to determine whether we should call or fold. That whole approach focuses solely on our own hand strength, and it ignores every variable and every piece of information we're being given.
Put it this way: If you said something along the lines of "88 is worth calling 20% of my stack", you'd make some really terrible calls pre-flop if you started a tournament with 500 big blinds and someone has 6bet pre for 90bb and just has the nuts every time. You'd also make some really terrible folds late in tournaments when someone shoves on you and is light most of the time.
I also remember it being pretty common advice around 2007ish (when I started teaching myself Poker) to use x% of your stack in a tournament to speculate with junk early in tournaments - and it's just horrible advice in every way imaginable.
---
Reasons people are asking for hand history/more information:
We need to see all actions made in the hand and stack sizes relative to the size of the big blind, because that affects the range of hands a person can have.
The type of tournament affects the decision massively too - If it's a satellite, or a BH, that is also information needed to analyse a hand and give the best possible advice. Calling 76s in a satellite is very likely to be terrible. Calling 76s in a bounty hunter is more likely to be reasonable depending on other variables.
Payout situation (e.g. are we in the money yet, are there any significant pay jumps coming up) would also be nice, but those often aren't readily available, and it's not too difficult to guesstimate from things like looking at the blind level and/or stating that there were roughly X people left in the tournament when the hand happened.
It used to just be a case of highlighting the text from the hand history and pasting it in. The new forum doesn't seem to like it though. It just tends to paste in like this, which is a bit inconvenient.
Hand History #1235748594 (19:31 28/12/2017)
Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance
phlwbb29 Small blind 150.00 150.00 5410.00
EvilPingu Big blind 300.00 450.00 1980.00
Your hole cards
5
J
LittleGJ Fold
ctbn All-in 1400.00 1850.00 0.00
phlwbb29 Fold
EvilPingu Fold
ctbn Muck
ctbn Win 750.00 750.00
ctbn Return 1100.00 0.00 1850.00
People can work with it in that format, but please add suits of cards manually as follows:
EvilPingu Big blind 300.00 450.00 1980.00
Your hole cards
5s
Jd
here *ready in 3 minutes.
Quick hand history post 101
Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance
oilean Sit out
Qazxswed Big blind 1600.00 1600.00 25630.00
Your hole cards
A
A
GILLS69 Call 1600.00 3200.00 66772.07
kevg14 Fold
mumsie Fold
rizla111 Fold
Qazxswed Check
Flop
9
5
2
Qazxswed Bet 1600.00 4800.00 24030.00
GILLS69 Fold
Qazxswed Muck
Qazxswed Win 3200.00 27230.00
Qazxswed Return 1600.00 0.00 28830.00
Whilst I'm here, some useful explanations from Pingu as to why more info is required (I mean, you don't need a hand history to state whether it's a bounty hunter), but at a basic level you need odds of winning against perceived range, pot odds, then considerations on how valuable your chips are at that time (ICM). Might pull up Pingu on the 6bet pre example as it's going to depend on the size of our 5bet, and ICM will say early on in a tournament losing 20% when super deep is not going to do that much damage to your chances of winning. Not great of course, but not a disaster if the pot odds after what is certainly a bad 5bet look pretty good.
Pingu knows all of that of course, just thought I'd add to show that those factors really are key in deciding to call or fold.
I know the point has been partially made but bounty hunters in particular offer great scenarios for hands like this, you've got the normal pot odds, plus the £ amount bounty (which is usually worth a few ladder spots), but also getting a bigger stack from spots like this also provides you with an expectation to cash future bounties as a big stack. Which is why you see some eye-watering calls and therefore beats in these games.
Way more than I expected to write just came on to quip the AA. Disconnection issue @mumsie ?!
What's the Best hand to play against pocket aces all in pre flop?
Apart from you also having pocket aces of course.
Jaegers and Cloudy Cider issues.
Sharing a suit (e.g. 87 of Hearts vs two red aces) knocks about a percent off, because it makes it slightly harder to make a flush, and we now lose against four of that suit on the board.
If you're interested in hand percentages, I recommend getting Equilab. It's completely free and does % calculations for you. I use it when looking at hand histories after a session to see how much % I have vs my opponent's range and determine whether I made a good/bad call.
However, even if you don't do proper Poker study/Hand History evaluation etc, it's still kinda fun to play around with.
https://www.pokerstrategy.com/poker-software-tools/equilab-holdem/
It would be against the T&Cs of pretty much every site to use that while playing to help with decisions, but it's virtually impossible on here without a time bank to do that anyway. The Stars software had a tantrum once because I had it minimised in my taskbar before trying to sit at a table, so sites will know if you did try to use it to help with decisions in game.
(@Tikay10 there's affiliate links on that site, but not on the download page. Please remove the link if that's a problem - ty)
As the best hand to play against pocket aces,their calculations are only over a 20 million hand sample,so I agree with you.
Ace 9 offsuit is the worst. 66 is the best pocket pair to play against aces,over the same sample.
Like yourself I find it fascinating and like to mess around looking at that stuff.
Why would 66 have any more chance of beating AA than 77 or 88?
Why could 56s be any better or worse than 89s?
The AA hand doesn't impact on how likely these holdings are to create a better hand by the river, so they must be equivalent. JTs suffers for example because AA blocks some paths to make straights for JT.