I had 2nd race as a no bet until Jason spoke about Eminent in the prelims and I followed his advice and went for 2nd and 3rd fav. Shame I didn't put it in a forecast but still a nice 6/1 for the win for Forest Ranger and V's favourite trainer.
I had 2nd race as a no bet until Jason spoke about Eminent in the prelims and I followed his advice and went for 2nd and 3rd fav. Shame I didn't put it in a forecast but still a nice 6/1 for the win for Forest Ranger and V's favourite trainer.
Nice one P66. Wish I had that advice before putting my Placepot on.
Just a little thing to look out for I noticed a couple of horses out of 1M2F maiden at Newbury won by RAYMOND TUSK have won and Cheif Ironside made it three AT 14-1 yesterday.
RAYMOND TUSK just been entered in Prix De Larc de Triumphe so might be worth following him and that Newbury maiden.
Two running tomorrow Friday
5.40 NOTTINGHAM PHOENICIAN STAR 33-1 FINISHED 5TH 7.50 NOTTINGHAM GODODIN 10-1 FINISHED 8TH ALREADY BACKED IN FROM 14-1
Just a little thing to look out for I noticed a couple of horses out of 1M2F maiden at Newbury won by RAYMOND TUSK have won and Cheif Ironside made it three AT 14-1 yesterday.
RAYMOND TUSK just been entered in Prix De Larc de Triumphe so might be worth following him and that Newbury maiden.
Two running tomorrow Friday
5.40 NOTTINGHAM PHOENICIAN STAR 33-1 FINISHED 5TH 7.50 NOTTINGHAM GODODIN 10-1 FINISHED 8TH ALREADY BACKED IN FROM 14-1
Hope you were on GODODIN g
Well done mate.
I was out playing table tennis this evening and completely missed it. :-(
I don't think it matters too much for the small field races and/or the longer races, but the 4,00 is a 7F 29 runner handicap and the 5.10 is a 6f 18 runner handicap.
The 3.25 and 4.35 are 9 and 10 runner fields which still may be impacted.
It may be worth paying attention to the 2.15 which is a longer 1m4f race, to see if the Jockeys favour the inside rail, or come down the centre of the track in the final few furlongs.
Thnk mate, as you say there is a bias but varies too much for my liking. As to tomorrow in the big race done one from each side sort of. Might have idea couple of races in
Out of interest the "reactionary" watering policy at Royal Ascot last year seemed to cause the bias to go HIGH, HIGH, LOW, HIGH, LOW over the five days, which we were unfortunately "off beat" with for our Placepot attempts.
Thnk mate, as you say there is a bias but varies too much for my liking. As to tomorrow in the big race done one from each side sort of. Might have idea couple of races in
My "feeling" atm, is that HIGH will be favoured in the big field sprints, as this often happens initially and they then try and water it to compensate.
OK, here are my "super six" at Ascot today. @zadoc
This time I have decided to write my reasoning behind them. I don't normally like to do this, as I am fully aware of how horses can make fools of men, when their opinions are over stated.
However, I feel very strongly about some of my choices, so I have decided to "break tradition" and actual write why I have formed the opinion I have.
2.15: COUNT CALABASH
With Thundering Blue being a NR, I have amended my choice to COUNT CALABASH. Won well last time out, so should be fit and in good form. Has some better than average top speed ratings and I am hoping his high draw (14) will be in his favour. Currently best priced 7/1
2.50: BARSANTI
Looks the class horse of the race. 2nd to IDAHO at Royal Ascot last year so gets my vote. It is his first run of the season, so is he fit would be my concern? I'm luke warm about him at the moment, but still gets my vote. I will be happy to have a punt on him if he doesn't drift in the betting.
Interesting runner. Was looking as if she was going to make a good comeback when running after a 301 day break. She clipped heels and unseated rider inside the final furlong in a decent race at Goodwood. I actually think she would have won that day. The downside is that it appears the handicapper put her up 3lbs for unseating.
The Goodwood race was only a week ago, but provided she has no ill effects from the bump and the unseat, I think she'll go well.
OK now it gets a bit tricky. The Victoria Cup. A 29 runner H/C (Cavalry Charge)
I am taking a leap of faith that it is going to favour high drawn runners coming from off the pace, which is interesting as most the fancied runners are drawn low.
There are merits for so many horses, but I've decided, I'm just going to do one suggestion per race.
So RAISING SAND it is, has run well in big field handicaps at Ascot in the past. Drawn 16, so should have the choice if/when the field splits.
First run this season though, but if he's fit he could run well at a price.
Looks a good E/W shout at current price of 20/1.
4.35: DAVE DEXTER
Lots of newcomers in this race, but the two market leaders have both run and won before.
DAVE DEXTER looked good on debut, winning despite running green, and looks like he will improve a lot for the run. The runner up has won since. Both DAVE DEXTER and BLOWN BY WIND have recorded reasonable top speed ratings, so I think it would have to be a pretty good newcomer to beat them both.
I've had a chunk on at 2/1 and will back it again if it is supported in the market.
5.10: IMAGINE IF
An 18 runner open looking 6f Handicap looks a tough ask to pick out the winner. I am still going to go with my "hunch" of the high draw.
Drawn 18 if my hunch is right (Big if) could work out well for IMAGINE IF, with an interesting Jockey booking in SILVESTRE DE SOUZA. Last couple of runs have been on Soft and Good to Soft, I am hoping the firmer ground will suit and that DE SOUZA times the run right as he so often does.
If handling the ground, has a decent E/W chance at 12/1
this Victoria cup looks hardest race to find winner for long time on the day no idea about draw. lately to win this type of race is unexposed 4y/old they have won 6 of last ten last 4 running,s draw has been 18 29 23 25 I'm going for SABADOR 12/1 gl everyone today
Sorry this is a bit late G. but I've been working this morning. It's a very difficult one with regards the draw at Ascot 'coz we haven't really had any big field handicaps there this season to go on, so we won't really know until the race unfortunately. Traditionally, it seems high drawn horses seem to have an advantage early season, but it's generally where the best early pace is, and then all the jockeys follow like sheep. As V. says, it's probably best to back one on either side, or normally back anything Jamie Spencer rides, though he's slightly better over 1 mile coz it gives him that extra furlong to get thru the field.
I've backed TONY CURTIS (25/1 e/w 6 places) as I've followed this horse for a year or so, and feel he has a big handicap race in him, he's drawn high and Richard Hannon's horses are running well.
GOOD LUCK today everyone.
EDIT:..... though if you look at my NAPS record recently, you can see what I know about Flat racing !!!!! Don't think I've napped a winner this month
Comments
I had 2nd race as a no bet until Jason spoke about Eminent in the prelims and I followed his advice and went for 2nd and 3rd fav. Shame I didn't put it in a forecast but still a nice 6/1 for the win for Forest Ranger and V's favourite trainer.
2.00 haydock debece 6/1
2.50 ascot barsanti 11/8
3.25 ascot tribute act 6/1
3.45 haydock dancing star 2/1
4.00 ascot keyser soze 6/1
5.10 ascot moonraker 6/1
I was out playing table tennis this evening and completely missed it. :-(
Glad you've had a nice winner!
They will be watering and on Friday Morning the going stick was 8.7 on the straight course and 8.1 on the round (Which is in the GOOD-FIRM range)
One thing with Ascot is that there is usually a bias, but it can change from day to day.
At Royal Ascot last year we (The Jackpot Syndicate) unfortunately got the bias wrong most days (as it changed)
So if we can get it right today, that'd be handy, and potentially worth remembering for Royal Ascot.
Post here if you have any thoughts.
Cheers,
G
The 3.25 and 4.35 are 9 and 10 runner fields which still may be impacted.
It may be worth paying attention to the 2.15 which is a longer 1m4f race, to see if the Jockeys favour the inside rail, or come down the centre of the track in the final few furlongs.
This time I have decided to write my reasoning behind them. I don't normally like to do this, as I am fully aware of how horses can make fools of men, when their opinions are over stated.
However, I feel very strongly about some of my choices, so I have decided to "break tradition" and actual write why I have formed the opinion I have.
2.15: COUNT CALABASH
With Thundering Blue being a NR, I have amended my choice to COUNT CALABASH. Won well last time out, so should be fit and in good form. Has some better than average top speed ratings and I am hoping his high draw (14) will be in his favour.
Currently best priced 7/1
2.50: BARSANTI
Looks the class horse of the race. 2nd to IDAHO at Royal Ascot last year so gets my vote. It is his first run of the season, so is he fit would be my concern? I'm luke warm about him at the moment, but still gets my vote. I will be happy to have a punt on him if he doesn't drift in the betting.
Currently best priced 6/4
Interesting runner. Was looking as if she was going to make a good comeback when running after a 301 day break. She clipped heels and unseated rider inside the final furlong in a decent race at Goodwood. I actually think she would have won that day. The downside is that it appears the handicapper put her up 3lbs for unseating.
The Goodwood race was only a week ago, but provided she has no ill effects from the bump and the unseat, I think she'll go well.
Currently best priced 10/3
OK now it gets a bit tricky. The Victoria Cup. A 29 runner H/C (Cavalry Charge)
I am taking a leap of faith that it is going to favour high drawn runners coming from off the pace, which is interesting as most the fancied runners are drawn low.
There are merits for so many horses, but I've decided, I'm just going to do one suggestion per race.
So RAISING SAND it is, has run well in big field handicaps at Ascot in the past. Drawn 16, so should have the choice if/when the field splits.
First run this season though, but if he's fit he could run well at a price.
Looks a good E/W shout at current price of 20/1.
4.35: DAVE DEXTER
Lots of newcomers in this race, but the two market leaders have both run and won before.
DAVE DEXTER looked good on debut, winning despite running green, and looks like he will improve a lot for the run. The runner up has won since. Both DAVE DEXTER and BLOWN BY WIND have recorded reasonable top speed ratings, so I think it would have to be a pretty good newcomer to beat them both.
I've had a chunk on at 2/1 and will back it again if it is supported in the market.
5.10: IMAGINE IF
An 18 runner open looking 6f Handicap looks a tough ask to pick out the winner. I am still going to go with my "hunch" of the high draw.
Drawn 18 if my hunch is right (Big if) could work out well for IMAGINE IF, with an interesting Jockey booking in SILVESTRE DE SOUZA. Last couple of runs have been on Soft and Good to Soft, I am hoping the firmer ground will suit and that DE SOUZA times the run right as he so often does.
If handling the ground, has a decent E/W chance at 12/1
I've backed TONY CURTIS (25/1 e/w 6 places) as I've followed this horse for a year or so, and feel he has a big handicap race in him, he's drawn high and Richard Hannon's horses are running well.
GOOD LUCK today everyone.
EDIT:..... though if you look at my NAPS record recently, you can see what I know about Flat racing !!!!! Don't think I've napped a winner this month