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Forum Comp Day 4, THURSDAY. Valencia v Arsenal Total Goals
Tikay10
Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 169,670
Morning.
Well everything is going to seem fairly pedestrian today after the last 2 nights which were both thoroughly uplifting & exhilarating, but the Comp goes on, so let's see.
Tonight we will go for our 3 European Semi-Final 2nd Leg on the bounce, & the chosen game & format will be;
Valencia v Arsenal Total Goals
Comments
The league standings first, & 5 entrants selected 5 goals @ 15/2. Like Spurs, they were seconds from losing, but somehow got there. Amazing stuff.
@freeatlast + £7.00
@KOBAYASHI + £7.00
@wrongjohn1 + £7.00
@goldnballz + £5.50
@gpc70 + £5.50
@mkgunner + £5.50
@mumsie + £5.50
@tomgoodun + £5.50
@1981MATT + £2.00
@68Trebor + £2.00
@edrich + £2.00
@eon1961 + £2.00
@MattBates + £2.00
@millwise11 + £2.00
@mondo1985 + £2.00
@Summers119 + £2.00
@Tai-gar + £2.00
@belsibub - £3.00
@Boxster - £3.00
@Brrrrrrr - £3.00
@coo1-um - £3.00
@CWOOD10 - £3.00
@dobiesdraw - £3.00
@DoyleBrun - £3.00
@dragon1964 - £3.00
@Duesenberg - £3.00
@EdNo - £3.00
@engy - £3.00
@Essexphil - £3.00
@EvilPingu - £3.00
@fredsgirl - £3.00
@Glenelg - £3.00
@HANSON - £3.00
@ikelly - £3.00
@jimmyjazze - £3.00
@jwrighty - £3.00
@LmfaoAllin - £3.00
@lufc333 - £3.00
@madprof - £3.00
@MISTY4ME - £3.00
@NoEa5yCa5h - £3.00
@PKRPar - £3.00
@pompeynic - £3.00
@rabdeniro - £3.00
@safc71 - £3.00
@SidV79 - £3.00
@Snuffer - £3.00
@spartathen - £3.00
@taylor00 - £3.00
@Telmison74 - £3.00
@TheEdge949 - £3.00
@Tikay10 - £3.00
@tmc460 - £3.00
@vaigret - £3.00
@waller02 - £3.00
@who_me - £3.00
@wynne1938 - £3.00
@zadoc - £3.00
Here's the current SkyBet.com prices which we will settle at;
No Goals 16/1
Exactly 1 Goal 11/2
Exactly 2 Goals 3/1
Exactly 3 Goals 3/1
Exactly 4 Goals 7/2
Exactly 5 Goals 7/1
6+ Goals 6/1
Here's the SportingLife.com predictions;
https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/europa-league-semi-final-tips/166215
The OPTA stuff;
Five of the previous 28 teams to lose the first leg of a UEFA Cup/Europa League semi-final by 2+ goals have ended up progressing, most recently Espanyol against Club Brugge in 1987-88.
Arsenal have never been knocked out of a European tie in which they won the first leg by two or more goals, progressing from all 27 previously.
Valencia are looking to reach their first major European final since the 2004 UEFA Cup, when they beat Marseille 2-0 under Rafael Benitez.
Arsenal’s last appearances in a European final was in 2006, losing the Champions League showpiece against Barcelona. The Gunners have lost each of the last three major European finals they’ve reached (1995 Cup Winners Cup, 2000 UEFA Cup, 2006 Champions League).
Valencia have won both of their two previous home games against Arsenal, beating them 1-0 in the 2000-01 Champions League quarter-final and 2-1 in the 2002-03 Champions League second group stage.
Arsenal have lost their last four away games against Spanish opponents, and are winless in their last seven such games (D2 L5) since a 1-0 win at Real Madrid in February 2006.
Valencia have lost just one of their last 21 home games in all competitions (W15 D5), though it was their last such game against Eibar in La Liga (0-1).
Including finals, Arsenal manager Unai Emery has won his last 18 Europa League knockout ties, last being eliminated from the competition in the 2011-12 semi-finals with Valencia.
Valencia’s Kevin Gameiro has been directly involved in 10 goals in his last 11 starts in home Europa League games, scoring nine and assisting one.
Arsenal’s Alexandre Lacazette has scored eight goals in his last 10 Europa League knockout stage games.
Judging by this Forum, think that's a 66/1 shot.......
You probably noticed I am in a good mood today, and no drugs or alcohol in sight, just a natural dopamine surge I believe.
Must have been because I exercised and was out with nature for what seems like the first time in 10 years!
I'm a guessing that's because it is EXACTLY 5 goals, whereas "6+" embraces 6, 7, 8, 9 etc, so is deemed fractionally more probable.
As a matter of interest, if anyone is sufficiently nerdy (& @EvilPingu might chime in helpfully here) "Total Goal" prices are presumably correlated to "Outrights" by some clever formula. Quite what else goes into the equation I don't know, but as a general rule I believe sub-markets all correlate to Outrights.