This isn't my selection, more of a moan .5 goals pays more than 6 goals does it eh. Meh.
Ha, yes.
I'm a guessing that's because it is EXACTLY 5 goals, whereas "6+" embraces 6, 7, 8, 9 etc, so is deemed fractionally more probable.
As a matter of interest, if anyone is sufficiently nerdy (& @EvilPingu might chime in helpfully here) "Total Goal" prices are presumably correlated to "Outrights" by some clever formula. Quite what else goes into the equation I don't know, but as a general rule I believe sub-markets all correlate to Outrights.
For the total # of goals market - The probability of 3 goals being scored is just P(3-0) + P(2-1) + P(1-2) + P(0-3), where P(X) is the probability of an event occurring and X is just describing what that event is. So that works itself out once you've got a model for the correct score.
Outrights - You can get that directly from the "Correct Score" market by just summing the probability of each correct score that gives the desired outcome. Thus, P(Draw) = P(0-0) + P(1-1) + P(2-2).... etc.
You could get pretty much everything (Not like FGS stuff) just by having a model that works out the probability of each final score. That'll probably come from historical data with a bias towards more recent results to calculate expected goals for each team, if I had to guess.
I had always thought it was the other way round, in that they started with the "Outright", which them formed the basis of all (well most) of the sub-markets.
I'm sure you are correct, but I'll need to sit down in a darkened room for a while to think that through.
Comments
That's it, gl all.
Arsenal concede early, they really are all over the shop and need to sort themselves out if they are to make the final.
Valencia 1 Arsenal 0
5 entries are on "1 goal", so presumably they are happy. At the moment.....
Completely against the run of play, Aubeyamang scores a beauty, and that's the vital away goal they so badly needed.
Those who selected 0 or 1 goal are out of it, and now it's the turn of the 8 who selected 2 goals to give it the HOLDDDDDD.
Valencia 1 Arsenal 1
Half Time:
Valencia 1 Arsenal 1
55 minutes:
Superb solo effort by Lacazette (assist BT Aubeyamang) and Arsenal lead 2-1.
The 0, 1 and 2 goal entries are all toast, but a whopping 15 entrants are on 3 goals.
58 minutes:
Well that never lasted long, Valencia score to make it 2-2 so another 15 selections are down the pan.
Valencia 2 Arsenal 2
68 minutes:
Aubayamang scores another, so we are on 5 goals now.
4 entrants selected 5 goals, but none selected 6 or more, so any more goals and we all lose.
Valencia 2 Arsenal 3
89th minute:
Aubamayang completes his hat trick.
Valencia 2 Arsenal 4
That means we have NO WINNERS tonight, so it's as you were.
OH, and WP Arsenal.
Outrights - You can get that directly from the "Correct Score" market by just summing the probability of each correct score that gives the desired outcome. Thus, P(Draw) = P(0-0) + P(1-1) + P(2-2).... etc.
You could get pretty much everything (Not like FGS stuff) just by having a model that works out the probability of each final score. That'll probably come from historical data with a bias towards more recent results to calculate expected goals for each team, if I had to guess.
^^^^^
@EvilPingu
Great explanation, thank you.
I had always thought it was the other way round, in that they started with the "Outright", which them formed the basis of all (well most) of the sub-markets.
I'm sure you are correct, but I'll need to sit down in a darkened room for a while to think that through.