You cannot seperate the 2 events, as you said "back to back". Lets look at it a different way. To thow a six with a dice is 6/1, and yes to throw a 2nd six with the next throw is 6/1, but to throw consecutive 6's the odds are 1 in (6 x 6) =36/1. You can spend a few lockdown minutes testing the maths with Monopoly dice......., but imagine the dice has 450 sides,
The bit that’s missing is that it could have been any of the entrants that accomplished the same feat, so in your example we’re not looking at the probability of a 6 coming in twice, we’re looking at the probability of either a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 coming in twice. The events aren’t separated, but it’s not relevant how the first finishes.
It’s the same as the question ‘what’s the probability of you and a friend sharing the same PIN number?’. The answer is 9999/1 since whatever your number is has to be matched by your friend. That’s different to the question ‘what’s the probability that both you and your friend’s PIN number is 6285?’, this one is 9999x9999 / 1.
The concept is referred to as conditional probability if you want to know more.
The bit that’s missing is that it could have been any of the entrants that accomplished the same feat, so in your example we’re not looking at the probability of a 6 coming in twice, we’re looking at the probability of either a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 coming in twice. The events aren’t separated, but it’s not relevant how the first finishes.
It’s the same as the question ‘what’s the probability of you and a friend sharing the same PIN number?’. The answer is 9999/1 since whatever your number is has to be matched by your friend. That’s different to the question ‘what’s the probability that both you and your friend’s PIN number is 6285?’, this one is 9999x9999 / 1.
The concept is referred to as conditional probability if you want to know more.
All the best
Mike
Have you been looking over my shoulder at the cash point? I am going to have to change my PIN now.
yeah if the same 450 players played the 2 tournaments then it would have a 450/1 chance of one of them winning twice, but on average what % of the field are the same 2 weeks running? i have no idea so you cant really work out true odds.
yeah if the same 450 players played the 2 tournaments then it would have a 450/1 chance of one of them winning twice, but on average what % of the field are the same 2 weeks running? i have no idea so you cant really work out true odds.
Plus they all have different abilities. Was just a guide to say it's closer to 450 than 450x450 which would be more astronomical a number.
Comments
You cannot seperate the 2 events, as you said "back to back". Lets look at it a different way. To thow a six with a dice is 6/1, and yes to throw a 2nd six with the next throw is 6/1, but to throw consecutive 6's the odds are 1 in (6 x 6) =36/1. You can spend a few lockdown minutes testing the maths with Monopoly dice......., but imagine the dice has 450 sides,
The bit that’s missing is that it could have been any of the entrants that accomplished the same feat, so in your example we’re not looking at the probability of a 6 coming in twice, we’re looking at the probability of either a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 coming in twice. The events aren’t separated, but it’s not relevant how the first finishes.
It’s the same as the question ‘what’s the probability of you and a friend sharing the same PIN number?’. The answer is 9999/1 since whatever your number is has to be matched by your friend. That’s different to the question ‘what’s the probability that both you and your friend’s PIN number is 6285?’, this one is 9999x9999 / 1.
The concept is referred to as conditional probability if you want to know more.
All the best
Mike
It's the same odds as winning the lottery, 50/50. You either win it or you don't, simples.
Definitely not math debate