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Effects Of Brexit.

HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 16,897
edited February 6 in The Rail
This Brexit deal leaves me lost for words

Martin Kettle’s unadorned, factual assessment of Brexit’s consequences (If Brexit is ‘done’, then where’s the dividend?, 13 January) courteously acknowledges the government’s blithe assurance that these are mere “teething troubles” while otherwise making it clear that on the current evidence they will prove to be anything but.



Kettle’s language is restrained. He maintains respect for views he regards as emotional. But if we imagine his piece not to be about the UK, but some unspecified land far away, we learn something extraordinary. We learn of a country agreeing a trade deal that erects barriers to trade; a deal that uniquely creates a customs border within its own sovereign territory; one that not only makes its people poorer but produces a fivefold increase in bureaucracy; a deal that makes the country less secure while probably hastening its own disintegration.

If one were to offer a single-word description of such a plan, what are the options? Incredible? Unbelievable? Ridiculous? One wonders which word Kettle might choose – perhaps a different one entirely.

David Thomas

Hereford

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/this-brexit-deal-leaves-me-lost-for-words/ar-BB1cRFYu?ocid=msedgntp
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Comments

  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 16,897
    If Brexit is 'done', then where's the dividend?
    Martin Kettle

    There was never a yardstick by which to judge the policy – so the issue will never be entirely settled


    A Sainsbury’s store in Belfast, 11 January 2021: ‘The big UK supermarkets warned of long-term shortages in Northern Ireland, which will get worse when Brexit grace periods end.’ Photograph: David Young/PA

    It is two weeks since Britain finally cut its ties with the European Union. It may therefore seem a bit premature to ask how it is all going. But the reality of Brexit in early 2021 is stark. We may now be a sovereign nation – which matters a lot to many – but in almost every material respect the UK is currently worse off than before 1 January.

    Whatever else this tells us, it is a reminder that Brexit is not yet done. Great Britain remains an island off the coast of the EU, which is its major market. This requires policy and action from politicians and parties. Brexit is a stage in that process. But the process goes on, and Brexit still shapes it. Consider four live examples, on all of which parliament heard evidence today.

    First, there is the mountain of paperwork freshly involved in trading across the Channel and into the EU. The Food and Drink Federation’s Ian Wright told MPs on the Brexit committee today that a job that typically took three hours before Brexit is now taking five days, even for big companies. The customs enforcers were currently as much in the dark about the rules as the exporters, he added.
    Second, there is the specific effect of all this on the emotive issue of fish and seafood exports, over which the Scottish national party berated Boris Johnson at this week’s prime minister’s questions. Scotland Food and Drink warned on Tuesday that seafood exporters were losing £1m in sales every day.

    Third, there is a separate specific crisis in food distribution between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. This week the big UK supermarkets warned of long-term shortages in Northern Ireland supermarkets. Andrew Opie of the British Retail Consortium told the Brexit committee today they would get worse when Brexit grace periods end, on 31 March.

    Finally, there is the ending of full police and security cooperation between the UK and the EU. In a separate session today, Prof Gemma Davies of Northumbria University told the Northern Ireland affairs committee that Brexit amounted to an overall “security downgrade” compared with the years of EU membership, and highlighted the loss of access to real-time data as a major problem.

    All the committee witnesses were clear that this deal, whatever its problems, was better than no deal. It may also turn out that their concerns prove to be Brexit teething problems. The lateness of the 24 December deal certainly posed massive challenges. As the new rules begin to bed in, it is also likely that all sides will find workaround solutions.

    Yet this would still be a highly optimistic way of looking at the problems facing the more than 50,000 UK manufacturers whose only trade is with the EU. And while workarounds are to be welcomed, they are inferior to the free passage of the past, and they must ultimately be compatible with law and regulation on both sides. This is another fragile area of the agreement, yet to be tested.

    The emotional importance of Brexit should never be underestimated. Support for it will always depend more upon feelings than realities. Yet the plain fact is that there has been no material Brexit dividend of any kind in the first two weeks of the break. Perhaps that does not matter. Perhaps a dividend will come. But perhaps the EU has also succeeded in showing there are real costs to leaving.

    The current reality is nevertheless that each of the material problems seems likely to grow more acute. That is true for distribution chains in particular. According to Wright, all EU-UK supply chains will have to be re-engineered over the coming months. The economic and employment implications of this statement are huge, especially amid the pandemic. The impact on fishing will be especially politically sensitive. And no one pretends that the medium-term future for Northern Ireland after Brexit is anything other than delicate.

    But the uncertainty extends deep into other areas of the economy and society too. Since London can no longer be the financial centre of the EU, UK financial services seem doomed to decline in importance. So does the attractiveness of UK universities to students and researchers. The arts industries are vulnerable too, as Simon Rattle’s return to Germany underlines. Lockdowns and travel restrictions mean there is currently less attention to post-Brexit tourism problems, but these will unquestionably revive.

    The Conservatives and Labour each have a shared interest in treating Brexit as done. Johnson wants to tout it as his passport to history, especially amid his Covid failures. Keir Starmer can see no route to a Labour majority (or party unity) from reopening the European issue. This week he tried to close the file on freedom of movement as part of that. This may be understandable from the point of view of electoral self-interest – but that does not mean the party interest is the same as the public interest.

    Material issues over commerce, trade and jobs thrown up by Brexit cannot be ignored just because to talk of why they are occurring may reopen the deep and disturbing divisions of the past decade. Nor can there be a code of silence over the umbilical link between Brexit and issues such as the potential breakup of the UK or the decline in Britain’s standing in the world. These are real and growing dangers to Britain, and thus even to Brexit itself.


    The feeling that Brexit was based on – that Britain and the British were being done down by the EU – lay behind its enormous political success at home. But beyond leaving the EU, Brexit never amounted to a programme of change. There was no yardstick other than departure by which to judge the policy.

    This simplicity remains both the strength and weakness of Brexit. It means all the areas that were left blank before and after 2016 will now need to be filled in. In practice, this mostly means working with the EU rather than competing against it, whether in trade or foreign policy generally. The head of the foreign affairs thinktank Chatham House, Robin Niblett, wrote this week that Britain will fail after Brexit if it tries to recreate itself as “a mini great power”. The former cabinet minister David Lidington has said he sees the prospect, over time, of various forms of “association agreement” between Britain and the EU.

    None of this is to say that a British return to the EU is remotely on the cards any time soon. But, as time passes, the grip exerted by the votes of 2016 and 2019 will weaken. Britain’s multiple living relationships with Europe, meanwhile, will not go away. Decisions will have to be taken. Things will have to evolve. In one form or another, what we now call Brexit will never be an entirely settled issue. We would be deceiving ourselves to treat it as one.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/13/brexit-done-dividend-policy
  • MAXALLYMAXALLY Member Posts: 15,169
    Is there not already a Brexit thread you could post all this on?

    Or are you in competition with Mr PJ to see who can start the most threads per week.

    Stick all yours on one thread..say...Politics and stuff.
    Mr PJ can call his Bad Beats and stuff.

    Job done. That way, folks will not have to open just two threads going forward.
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 3,868
    edited January 18
    This sort of journalism reminds me both why I bought the Grauniad in my 20's, and never since.

    In 1 sense, i agree with a lot of it, particularly re the likely break-up of the UK.

    Northern Ireland? We are forcing it to ally (economically) with Ireland. It is (just about) possible that the island of Ireland might unite to join a trading bloc with the UK, but politically that looks extremely difficult. We are effectively forcing part of the UK (N.I) to economically tie itself to the EU via Ireland. In the words of a prominent ex-Unionist, this time they really are being "sold down the river".

    Scotland? Brexit provides a pretty much perfect advert for the Scot Nats. How can they lose the next vote?

    Wales will stay. But then it always does ;)

    But the likes of the Guardian never provide a solution. We're not going back into the EU, certainly not in my lifetime. Not least because they wouldn't have us. It's a bit like campaigning for Charles 1st to have his head put back on.

    People voted to join the EU 45 years ago. It took 41 years of campaigning to get a new vote. 4 years ago is nowhere near long enough for round 3.

    I don't believe we should have left. But if there is 1 thing that is even worse, it is denying that there has not been a permanent change. voted for by the majority.

    We need to live in the now.
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 3,868
    MAXALLY said:

    Is there not already a Brexit thread you could post all this on?

    Or are you in competition with Mr PJ to see who can start the most threads per week.

    Stick all yours on one thread..say...Politics and stuff.
    Mr PJ can call his Bad Beats and stuff.

    Job done. That way, folks will not have to open just two threads going forward.

    I don't always agree with Haysie, but I like his threads.
    How difficult is it to see who the thread is by, and choose whether or not to read it?
  • MAXALLYMAXALLY Member Posts: 15,169
    Essexphil said:

    MAXALLY said:

    Is there not already a Brexit thread you could post all this on?

    Or are you in competition with Mr PJ to see who can start the most threads per week.

    Stick all yours on one thread..say...Politics and stuff.
    Mr PJ can call his Bad Beats and stuff.

    Job done. That way, folks will not have to open just two threads going forward.

    I don't always agree with Haysie, but I like his threads.
    How difficult is it to see who the thread is by, and choose whether or not to read it?
    Fair point Phil. However, my point still stands that there is an existing Brexit Thread on the go. I stopped reading that one years ago ;)
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 3,868
    MAXALLY said:

    Essexphil said:

    MAXALLY said:

    Is there not already a Brexit thread you could post all this on?

    Or are you in competition with Mr PJ to see who can start the most threads per week.

    Stick all yours on one thread..say...Politics and stuff.
    Mr PJ can call his Bad Beats and stuff.

    Job done. That way, folks will not have to open just two threads going forward.

    I don't always agree with Haysie, but I like his threads.
    How difficult is it to see who the thread is by, and choose whether or not to read it?
    Fair point Phil. However, my point still stands that there is an existing Brexit Thread on the go. I stopped reading that one years ago ;)
    I know what you mean, and am sure others agree with you.
    The original Brexit thread has spiralled out of control. Sometimes a particular aspect deserves a new thread.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 16,897
    Essexphil said:

    MAXALLY said:

    Essexphil said:

    MAXALLY said:

    Is there not already a Brexit thread you could post all this on?

    Or are you in competition with Mr PJ to see who can start the most threads per week.

    Stick all yours on one thread..say...Politics and stuff.
    Mr PJ can call his Bad Beats and stuff.

    Job done. That way, folks will not have to open just two threads going forward.

    I don't always agree with Haysie, but I like his threads.
    How difficult is it to see who the thread is by, and choose whether or not to read it?
    Fair point Phil. However, my point still stands that there is an existing Brexit Thread on the go. I stopped reading that one years ago ;)
    I know what you mean, and am sure others agree with you.
    The original Brexit thread has spiralled out of control. Sometimes a particular aspect deserves a new thread.
    As we have left the EU, my plan was to abandon the old Brexit thread, and post anything to do with how things change post Brexit on this one.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 16,897
    edited January 18
    Essexphil said:

    This sort of journalism reminds me both why I bought the Grauniad in my 20's, and never since.

    In 1 sense, i agree with a lot of it, particularly re the likely break-up of the UK.

    Northern Ireland? We are forcing it to ally (economically) with Ireland. It is (just about) possible that the island of Ireland might unite to join a trading bloc with the UK, but politically that looks extremely difficult. We are effectively forcing part of the UK (N.I) to economically tie itself to the EU via Ireland. In the words of a prominent ex-Unionist, this time they really are being "sold down the river".

    Scotland? Brexit provides a pretty much perfect advert for the Scot Nats. How can they lose the next vote?

    Wales will stay. But then it always does ;)

    But the likes of the Guardian never provide a solution. We're not going back into the EU, certainly not in my lifetime. Not least because they wouldn't have us. It's a bit like campaigning for Charles 1st to have his head put back on.

    People voted to join the EU 45 years ago. It took 41 years of campaigning to get a new vote. 4 years ago is nowhere near long enough for round 3.

    I don't believe we should have left. But if there is 1 thing that is even worse, it is denying that there has not been a permanent change. voted for by the majority.

    We need to live in the now.

    I think that Wales would be last of the three to leave, if we ever left, and that could depend on how the other two do, after leaving.

    I thought the letter was good, and summed up what we have done, very well.

    It will be interesting to see how it all pans out.

    I also think that pointing out solutions is difficult as we are only two weeks in, and the current problems may well worsen when the current grace period finishes at the end of March.

    I would agree that a return to the EU is unlikely to feature on the political agenda anytime soon.

    Although I would like to see Boris battered in the media over the numerous lies he has told about Brexit.

    It is difficult to understand why his stronger together argument for not leaving the UK, doesnt also apply to the EU.

    Any Brexit dividend seems a long way off.
  • lucy4lucy4 Member Posts: 3,875
    To be honest I'd forgotten all about Brexit with all that's going on at the moment and I can't say that I've noticed any difference that Brexit has caused so far.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 16,897
    lucy4 said:

    To be honest I'd forgotten all about Brexit with all that's going on at the moment and I can't say that I've noticed any difference that Brexit has caused so far.

    Tomasz Oryński
    @TOrynski
    ·
    14 Jan
    Polish trucking magazine http://40ton.net reports: A Polish truck driver entered Kent on Monday with valid Kent permit. He turned up at Ashford when they told him that his documents need to be double-checked, so he was sent to a different truck park to wait. 1/4
    Tomasz Oryński
    @TOrynski
    ·
    14 Jan
    On Wednesday (!) he was informed his paperwork got a green light and told to come back to Ashford custom place only to find that custom truck park is full. He was told to park on yet another truck park which serves the queue. 2/4
    Tomasz Oryński
    @TOrynski
    ·
    14 Jan
    There, the police come and fined him 300 pounds because his Kent access permit has by this time expired. So apparently the document called "kent access permit" needs to be renamed to "Kent accessing and then sitting for days, waiting for the paperwork permit". 3/4
    Tomasz Oryński
    @TOrynski
    ·
    14 Jan
    Also, in Ashford drivers have to wait up to 4 hours outside in the rain in the queue to the customs office: 4/4



    Tomasz Oryński
    @TOrynski
    ·
    15 Jan
    Found in comments:

    "The English tell you to leave the compound after paperwork is done even if your driving time is over. You can't just drive out and park in the lay-by, as they will slam a wheel clamp on you for that..."
    Tomasz Oryński
    @TOrynski
    ·
    15 Jan
    "I've been **** about for two days in United Whoredom. Now the best thing: I arrived in Germany, it took 15 minutes".
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 16,897
    lucy4 said:

    To be honest I'd forgotten all about Brexit with all that's going on at the moment and I can't say that I've noticed any difference that Brexit has caused so far.

    Fishing trucks protest at Westminster against Brexit red tape



    Scottish and Devon fishing trucks descended on Westminster on Monday to stage a protest against the Brexit red tape they say is either delaying or ruining exports of their fresh shellfish to the EU.


    Trucks with slogans including “Brexit carnage” and “Incompetent government destroying shellfish industry” parked metres from Downing Street but they stopped short of carrying out their threat last week to dump fresh fish close to No 10.


    “We strongly feel the system could potentially collapse,” said Gary Hodgson, a director of Venture Seafoods, which exports live and processed crabs and lobsters to the EU.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexit/fishing-trucks-protest-at-westminster-against-brexit-red-tape/ar-BB1cRro1?ocid=msedgntp
  • lucy4lucy4 Member Posts: 3,875
    As I said, me personally I've not experienced any notable difference despite all the gloom & doom forecasts that the country would suffer food/medical/supply problems.
  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr Member Posts: 7,846
    Loving the oxymoron thread title.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 16,897
    Police fine 15 Scottish sea food truckers £200 each for making 'unnecessary journeys' as they descend on No10 after vowing to dump tons of rotting fish on PM's doorstep over Brexit border chaos

    https://video.dailymail.co.uk/preview/mol/2021/01/18/8947159345427664165/636x382_MP4_8947159345427664165.mp4






    Fifteen Scottish fishermen who drove to London to protest against post-Brexit bureaucracy that has prevented them exporting to the European Union were fined today by police for making 'unnecessary journeys'. The shellfish export truck drivers were stopped by officers during the demonstration and given fixed penalty notices because they were deemed in breach of rules surrounding England's third national lockdown. More than 20 shellfish trucks were parked on roads near 10 Downing Street and the Houses of Parliament today with fishermen having vowed to dump tons of rotten fish on the Prime Minister's doorstep in protest. Trucks with slogans such as 'Brexit carnage' and 'incompetent government destroying shellfish industry' were parked just yards away from Boris Johnson's office - but the protest ended with those involved being fined. Scotland Yard told MailOnline today that a number of lorries were stopped and 15 people, who were either drivers or passengers in those vehicles, have been reported via fixed penalty notices for coronavirus-related offences.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9159353/Scottish-seafood-trucks-descend-Downing-Street.html
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 16,897
    Shelves in Marks & Spencer stores in FRANCE are left empty as the supermarket giant becomes latest company affected by Brexit border hold-ups


    M&S stores in France have started running out of food as the supermarket giant becomes the latest company affected by Brexit border hold-ups. Images circulated on Twitter (left and right) showed the supermarket shelves at an M&S outlet in Paris standing empty, as a spokesman confirmed that delays getting products out of the UK and into the EU were to blame. The spokesman added that the issue is industry-wide, affecting small and large British businesses on the continent alike. M&S is popular in Europe with both British expats and locals alike, who flocked to the comments section of the photos to share their own stories of shelves ending up bare, disappointment that it had been allowed to happen, and fears that the shops may close if the problem is not fixed.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9160273/Shelves-Marks-Spencer-stores-FRANCE-left-empty.html
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 16,897
    lucy4 said:

    As I said, me personally I've not experienced any notable difference despite all the gloom & doom forecasts that the country would suffer food/medical/supply problems.

    Brexit news – live: Chaos spreads to meat industry as government blames empty shelves on Covid



    Boris Johnson’s government has been warned that meat worth hundreds of thousands of pounds is going to waste at EU ports, as British exporters continue to get caught up in post-Brexit red tape problems.

    The British Meat Processors Association said new customs systems remain “convoluted” and “badly implemented”. It comes as Northern Ireland secretary Brandon Lewis claimed that empty shelves in Northern Ireland were due to coronavirus “challenges” – and not because of Brexit.

    Meanwhile, the largest political group in the European parliament has urged EU chiefs to come up with a “master plan” to move crucial financial services out of London after Brexit. The European People’s Party (EPP) doesn’t want Brussels dependent on “third countries” like the UK.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/brexit-news-live-chaos-spreads-to-meat-industry-as-government-blames-empty-shelves-on-covid/ar-BB1cSOXA?ocid=msedgntp
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 16,897
    Boris Johnson blames seafood exporters ‘not filling in the right forms’ for post-Brexit sales crash
    PM also vows to control ‘all the fish’ in years to come – even though EU can impose harsh retaliation if it tries


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-seafood-sales-boris-johnson-b1788936.html
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 16,897
    Tory rebels could block post-Brexit trade deal with China by backing Labour’s ‘genocide clause’
    Sir Iain Duncan Smith, leading the rebellion, says until now the UK has done ‘literally nothing’ other than ‘protest’


    Tory MPs are being urged to “vote with their consciences” when Labour attempts to reverse post-Brexit trade deals the UK has made with countries that are committing genocide.

    Ministers want to reverse key amendments to the Trade Bill, recently passed by the House of Lords, when it returns to the Commons on Tuesday – including one which would force the government to withdraw from any free trade agreement with countries the High Court rules are carrying out any form of genocide.

    In a joint letter to colleagues on both sides of the political spectrum, shadow foreign secretary Lisa Nandy and shadow international trade secretary Emily Thornberry said it was “essential” for MPs to ensure Britain’s stance on “human rights” was “reflected in how we conduct trade negotiations around the world”.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/trade-bill-genocide-clause-vote-b1789168.html
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 16,897
    Downing Street insists Boris Johnson has read Brexit trade deal, after doubt raised by spokesman’s comments


    Downing Street was today forced to issue a statement insisting that Boris Johnson has read the full text of his EU trade deal, after comments by his official spokesman raised doubts on the issue.

    Fisheries minister Victoria Prentis has come under fire for saying that she did not read the Trade and Cooperation Agreement when it came out on Christmas Eve because she was busy organising a nativity event.

    But when Mr Johnson’s official spokesman was asked repeatedly whether the PM had read every word of the 1,246-page document, he was unable to confirm that he had.

    Instead, he told a Westminster media briefing: “The prime minister is fully aware of the deal that we agreed.”


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-deal-text-boris-johnson-b1787270.html
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 16,897
    Brexit and engine ban have 'changed the rules', Vauxhall boss warns


    The future of Vauxhall’s plant at Ellesmere Port is in doubt after the Government “brutally changed the rules” on the sale of petrol and diesel cars, the boss of its parent company has said.

    Speaking at an event to mark the merger of Vauxhall-owner PSA Groupe and Fiat Chrysler to create a new business called Stellantis, Carlos Tavares criticised the decision to ban the sale of new cars with internal combustion engines from 2030.

    He said: “If the rules under which we operate are completely changed by a government... there is a limit for the headwinds. If there are so many barriers that there is no room to create value it is the ethical responsibility of the company to make a decision.”

    The decision over the future of the Ellesmere Port factory, Cheshire would come "within weeks", he said.

    However, Mr Tavares said a decision about investment for a new model or electric vehicles being built at the plant would be taken in light of “the UK government’s willingness to protect some kind of automotive industry in its own country, which is about their own strategy”.

    As the Stellantis decides where to invest in making electric vehicles, Mr Tavares said it would have to consider “a pure logistic or paperwork respect, perhaps it is better to put it in continental Europe” - a clear reference to barriers created by Brexit.

    He called Vauxhall “a strong asset” and praised workers at Ellesmere Port and the marque’s Luton van plant for their efforts to maintain production during the pandemic.



    Describing the merger of PSA and Fiat Chrysler as a “shield” that would protect the business by creating scale and volume, Mr Tavares warned against “confusing” this with an ability to be profitable.

    Asked about the impact of Brexit and the 2030 ban on internal combustion engines on Stellantis and Vauxhall's operations in particular, he said: “If a government or country creates a situation which destroys our business model by adding customs duty or constraints or bans of the sale of a kind or car … we are going to invest in different directions.

    Ellesmere Port’s future has been in question since PSA bought Vauxhall and Opel from GM in 2017.

    The Astra, which is built at the factory near Liverpool, is due for a refresh and putting money into producing a car there when most of the vehicles are exported could raise costs.

    Mr Tavares said the merger of PSA and Fiat Chrysler to create a €50bn business selling more than 4m cars a year would generate savings of €5bn a year, but this would not come without closing factories.

    https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/brexit-engine-ban-changed-rules-192714213.html
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