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Can't think of a suitable title but it regards the Afghan situation
TheEdge949
Member Posts: 5,686
in The Rail
I have this week called out several people for their ability to berate both the US and Britain for pulling out their resources and leaving the people of Afghanistan to the mercies of a Taliban Government. Hey guys, heads up but we were never going to be there ad infinitum.
However, these are, in many cases the same people who protested the presence of the Coalition forces in the first place and called for an immediate and total withdrawal.
The word hypocrite springs to mind.
It is not my intention to debate the occupation of Afghanistan. It's a complexity of tribal allegiencies and animosity where feuds that happened a Century ago are raised as if it was only last week and family and tribal loyalty are valued above all. Align that with an inhospitable terrain, a ferocious ability to fight and a deep unconcern for ones own life and maybe this is why no invader has ever successfully maintained an occupation. So the very presence of the Coalition was to say the least tenuous and always destined to be unsuccessful, no matter how well equipped and professional the occupying forces were.
Regarding a Taliban Government I have my doubts as to the inclusive nature they have claimed it will be. If they do allow some form of inclusivity then this will almost certainly create divisions within not only their own ranks but amongst many of the Jihadist groups outside the country. Also let's not forget the Tribal leaders, the poppy cultivators and the Warlords who will all expect consideration.
In fact take a look at some of the other known players in the equation Al Qaeda, ISIS, Hamas, Boko Haram, Al Shabaab, Caucasus Emirate, Indian Mujahadeen, Ansar Al Islam. These are only a few of the better known groups but the represent a huge geographical covering including The Middle East, Russia, Africa both North and West and the Indian subcontinent.
Certainly ISIS already see the Taliban as quisling because of their willingness to engage the West in dialogue and have stated that the Taliban, not pure in its doctrine, is a legitimate target.
This may well force Al Qaeda to take one side or the other and many of the smaller groups could be forced to either back or defy the Taliban rule in Afghanistan dependent upon the ideology they embrace.
The Oil States may well play a part, certainly covertly, but always with an eye to ensure the petro dollars continue to roll should there be an escalation of tension that spills into adjoining States.
In fact it could well be that within a short space of time a Taliban Government in Afghanistan finds itself under attack from the most extreme of militant groups and whilst a Taliban versus ISIS conflict may be regarded as a win win situation for the West its not.
Iran is nuclear, Pakistan is nuclear, Iraq is chemical. India, Israel and The US are all trigger happy. Boris, Vladimir and Kim are all crazy.
It is well documented that armageddon begins with the beast in the east and shifting sands. Interesting times ahead I feel, terrifying, cruel, harsh and even barbaric but interesting.
However, these are, in many cases the same people who protested the presence of the Coalition forces in the first place and called for an immediate and total withdrawal.
The word hypocrite springs to mind.
It is not my intention to debate the occupation of Afghanistan. It's a complexity of tribal allegiencies and animosity where feuds that happened a Century ago are raised as if it was only last week and family and tribal loyalty are valued above all. Align that with an inhospitable terrain, a ferocious ability to fight and a deep unconcern for ones own life and maybe this is why no invader has ever successfully maintained an occupation. So the very presence of the Coalition was to say the least tenuous and always destined to be unsuccessful, no matter how well equipped and professional the occupying forces were.
Regarding a Taliban Government I have my doubts as to the inclusive nature they have claimed it will be. If they do allow some form of inclusivity then this will almost certainly create divisions within not only their own ranks but amongst many of the Jihadist groups outside the country. Also let's not forget the Tribal leaders, the poppy cultivators and the Warlords who will all expect consideration.
In fact take a look at some of the other known players in the equation Al Qaeda, ISIS, Hamas, Boko Haram, Al Shabaab, Caucasus Emirate, Indian Mujahadeen, Ansar Al Islam. These are only a few of the better known groups but the represent a huge geographical covering including The Middle East, Russia, Africa both North and West and the Indian subcontinent.
Certainly ISIS already see the Taliban as quisling because of their willingness to engage the West in dialogue and have stated that the Taliban, not pure in its doctrine, is a legitimate target.
This may well force Al Qaeda to take one side or the other and many of the smaller groups could be forced to either back or defy the Taliban rule in Afghanistan dependent upon the ideology they embrace.
The Oil States may well play a part, certainly covertly, but always with an eye to ensure the petro dollars continue to roll should there be an escalation of tension that spills into adjoining States.
In fact it could well be that within a short space of time a Taliban Government in Afghanistan finds itself under attack from the most extreme of militant groups and whilst a Taliban versus ISIS conflict may be regarded as a win win situation for the West its not.
Iran is nuclear, Pakistan is nuclear, Iraq is chemical. India, Israel and The US are all trigger happy. Boris, Vladimir and Kim are all crazy.
It is well documented that armageddon begins with the beast in the east and shifting sands. Interesting times ahead I feel, terrifying, cruel, harsh and even barbaric but interesting.
Comments
Something alone the line of, just because you go to posh schools abroad, that doesn’t mean you can comeback and try to influence ideas here.
The Taliban are not the most extreme group in the region-far from it.
On a lighter note, the terrible pictures of people falling from planes has inspired Elton john to release a charity single.
"Sandal in the Wind" is out next week
Russia on the other hand may be more nervous, many of the former Soviet Republics are heavily Muslim and any conflict between rival Jihadist groups could prove problematic for them. Also Russia has a huge involvement in Syria which means a vested interest in a successful outcome for them in that theatre of conflict.
As I write this it would appear from the information being released that a lethal attack on or around Kabul Airport is imminent, possibly within hours.
The Taliban said that the time limit for evacuations was Aug 31st. ISIS-K, the group reportedly planning said attack, seemingly are not prepared to give the West that much time, whilst showing their contempt for The Taliban.
Will The Taliban show they can provide a credible Government ?. This is perhaps the first of many tests ahead for them, they may be able to subjugate the populace through fear but other fundamentalist groups are a different matter entirely.
Ah So.
Afghanistan.... what happens next, would be a suitable title.
Now South East Asia, well that's a different matter for another thread.
What are you referring to by resources?
Arms? Funding? If so, both of those are available to any groups worldwide, whether they are labelled as terrorist groups or not.
What is your definition of involvement?
Supplying troops ? Or banging it out verbally on the world stage, getting support from other nations.
I’d think those that want to leave will be flown out before anything political gets laid out.
China and Russia have deals with Iran.
Just filling in the blanks.
CIA Director was there earlier this week.
Smoke & mirrors.
Biden will use it as an excuse to get out quick and leave people behind.
The Taliban don’t want drugs in the country.
Turning his back on his reponsibilities.
No mention of the dead marines.
As to who wants to get out I would suggest there our millions and the world cant or should take them all, any evacuation should stop as soon as poss and let them fight it out for themselves and accept that although we might not get the best outcome for quite a long time and the people will suffer , but havent they enough already? In the end the Afghan peoples are the only ones that can sort out what they want.