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Cash Out Bets.
Does anyone know how the Firms actually calculate the odds of cash out bets ? This 2/3 winning bet still only offers an 89p cash out profit am I missing something?
Comments
It's rooted in the human psyche, we would rather take a guaranteed sum against a risk of more.
On the exchanges the cash out is a similar thing although the exchange provider would rather you didn't cash out for less as they charge a commission on all winning bets and its a % rather than a flat rate.
I use it on the exchange but only to take a predetermined profit. If my target is 30% ROI on my stake then I can easily just take it without having to put a counter trade in and wait for it to be matched, all which takes 15 seconds and the exit point could have moved or the market itself moves against me.
If you're 4 winners into a 5 runner acca or something with the dodgy leg to come then maybe its worth looking at but personally I reckon if you totalled all the money lost by cashing out compared to the eventual outcome, you'll see that it's not an EV move.
FWIW I always let my LTD bets run until full time because the amount I win with late goals far exceeds the losses when it remains a draw or I cash out for a smaller loss. I could've cashed out a Lay The Draw on Cheatbore V Man City for a £10 loss but let it run and lost £20. A goal for either side would've seen me cashing out for around £16 profit.
Did you cash the above out or let it run coz you have a winning treble if you did.
I bet a couple over the weekend, and today, in an attempt to win a few quid to cover my Cheltenham punting.
I was offered eight hundred and odd quid to cash out the bet below, after the second horse won.
I was tempted by the almost £2,900, if the last one had won.
Luckily I also had a couple of winning bets.
Treble (x1)
W
1. Kansas City Chief
5/2
14th Mar PLUMPTON 14:10 HANDICAP HURDLE 3m 0f 217y - Win
14:10 14 March 2022
Best odds
W
5. Revels Hill
15/8
14th Mar TAUNTON 15:10 HANDICAP CHASE 3m 4f 85y - Win
15:10 14 March 2022
Best odds
L
4. Osprey Call
15/8
14th Mar STRATFORD 15:30 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 0f 70y - Win
15:30 14 March 2022
Best odds
Stake
£100.00
Returns
£0.00
In the above bet a cash out would be offered after the first horse won, and a bigger figure after the second one won.
The figure offered was a percentage of the proceeds had the bet just been a double.
The offer was quite a high percentage.
The difference when it comes to a football bet, is that on many occasions is that all the games involved are in play.
So there are many more factors involved when calculating the cashout.
Like the current score, how long to go, how your team is playing, etc, etc,
To state the obvious the level of any cashout offered will probably reflect the chances of the bet winning.
This level is likely to increase as you get closer to full time, if it looks like a winning bet.
1, You just have a bet as you would with a fixed odds bookie, the big difference here though is that you are betting against another person or group of people.
You can either back (bet for an outcome) or lay (bet against an outcome) and as all exchanges run to 100.2% max you can be sure that you are getting value. Also the odds can be set to refresh every 1,2,3,5,10, or 20 seconds so you get a real time analysis of where the money is going and what the market thinks.
2, You can trade the markets, Literally any sport 24 /7 . So for this we take at a position we like then as the market moves we trade out and lock in our profit or if it moves against us we trade out for a smaller loss than we would lose if we just let the position run.
I trade only football at the moment where there are over 100 strategies covering about 40 markets on average. Out of these I currently use only 4.
3, Scalping the markets (also called Tick trading). Similar to trading but much more fast and furious. The idea here is to get into a market for 2/3 minutes then get out with very small profits, 2.5 - 4% is often the norm. You then re-enter the market and repeat as many times as you want 10 -15 times is the norm and 10-15 times @ 2.5% - 4% is a nice profit on level stakes.
Scalping is more often preferred by those who trade Horse Racing as the very quick market moves and the liquidity in the market mean for those who can do it well there's good money to be made. Football, tennis and golf can all be scalped but frequently the market move slower than horse racing.
YOU DONT EVEN NEED TO BE GOOD AT MATHS, the on screen position will tell you whether you are in profit or loss at that given point in time and trading out is as simple as 1 click that's it.
Some other advantages of betting on the exchange is you can set your own odds. You may not always get matched but it ensures that you only have the odds you think are right. There are no account restrictions or limits beyond your account balance. The site don't care who wins or how much because it isn't their money. The only thing to be aware of is the commission paid on any winnings usually 2-5%, until you are known as a super trader where it can rise to much higher levels.
Also remember that the under / over rounds are always displayed and are always between 99.8 and 100.2. That would give a high street bookie a heart attack.
There are loads of great resources out there on you tube. Ben Michaels has the Sports Trading Life, whilst Alex Ong, Peter Webb and Caan Berry all put out easy to follow jargon free content. Personally I'd look at Ben's stuff when you first start out especially as his examples show losing trades as well as winners and is aimed at the newbie.
Even if you never trade, use the exchanges for betting, although stay off their sportsbooks, they are just as bad as the other fixed odds sites. Mess around with the options, try laying instead of backing, find the value against sportsbooks and just have fun. Min bet or trade is between £1-£2 depending on the market and just ensure if laying that you can cover the liability, it will show you what this is on screen.
Good Luck.
The cash out is £621.19.
Treble (x1)
W
1. Fairfield Ferrata
6/4
15th Mar SEDGEFIELD 13:15 NOVICES' HURDLE 2m 3f 188y - Win
13:15 15 March 2022
Best odds
W
5. You Say Nothing
2/1
15th Mar SEDGEFIELD 13:50 HANDICAP CHASE 2m 1f 0y - Win
13:50 15 March 2022
Rule 4: 5p Deduction
Best odds
5. Powerful Position
10/11
15th Mar SEDGEFIELD 16:30 HANDICAP CHASE 3m 2f 202y - Win
16:30 Today
Best odds
Stake
£100.00
Potential Returns
£1384.09
What I'm being offered against what I can win.
So currently the cash out is a £521 profit on our original £100 which is better than a 500% ROI.
What the last leg of the bet is giving you therefore is a £1384 return on a £521 bet which equates to a 265% ROI. Not shabby by any means but does this change our thinking.
Now you can argue that you're actually looking at an almost 1300% ROI with the whole bet which if there were no cash out would be true, but the fact that we have a defined exit point changes that.
Its a bit like deal or no deal, lets assume there are only two boxes left £100k and the £250k and the banker has to make you an offer. Most people would say well if he offers me £125K I'll take it because it's 50% of the big total. WRONG thinking. You already have £100k guaranteed so you would need an offer of that plus 50% of the difference to be +EV. So £100k + £75K =£175k should be your dealing point.
In fact if your odds of 10/11 are close then letting the bet run is perhaps the best policy after all you're getting better than 5/2 on the £521which is certainly value and punters not taking or missing value is a sin.
However, let's return to the cash out for a moment and that 500+% ROI and for me that's probably enough to persuade me to take it. After all I'm quite prepared when trading to take 40% profit and close the position.
Although I do feel here that the bookie has offered too much £350 ish and I'm probably letting it run, but here I'm cashing out.
One golden rule, whatever you decide, don't regret it after. If you decide to close out or let it run then that's the correct decision, be happy with yourself for making it.
Good luck with whatever you decide.
I dont know what would have changed.
The price of the remaining selection will effect the cash out amount. If it drifts you get less, and if it steams you get more.