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the Anatomy of a Bet
misterpj
Member Posts: 3,303
'could have simply written'
Norton Hill Wincanton Monday, fancy it! or;
Not and never have been trying to tell any 'forumites' how to suck a Golden Comet or Rhode Island Red' (best eggs!) when in comes to punting.
Plenty on here light years better than I.
Gee gees 2022, can still be 'done' with this caveat.
1.Singles on occasion doubles when exceptional trebles, all of the each way variety.
2.To get and add to the essential 'edge' required, hard graft, meaning two fold.
(a) every single race, every day, recorded and studied,then needs to be studied, without any reference to the betting market, and then again with full reference to the betting market,meaning, watch each and every race (recordings) through two pairs of eyes,the entire point of doing that is to have a working list, going forward, in simple broad terms, a working horses to follow list, that's organic,added to / deleted from, mainly with the working principle of next 3 runs.
3.betting bank, whatever that may be (rolling) a, maximum win bet 2% or 1% each way.
4.personal preference,would be minimum price you ever 'play at' 9/2.
simply eradicates the high strike rate requirements of the shorties.
5.more than ever, now, 2022,obviously and unless you know for certain sure, something will get smashed in the market,never place any bet (day to day, week to week) until / from 15 minutes pre race until off time,never, more than now,is that essential (for operating the way indicated above)
So broadly, that's the theory (above)
the rest comes down to your belief in your ability to have a working list of horses that are potential bets.
6.Mr Nevison & Mr Veitch individually got two things correct, they were;
Veitch race recordings forensic analysis
Nevison after Eddie the Shoe taught him 'nothings a bet,fancy nothing until I see available prices'
All that,put together, gives you a massive chance over the calendar year,plus any and each individual bet,becomes meaningless, on a single individual bet basis.Just the tricky little business of putting it all together!
Example,of potentially just one little bet!
A horse 'tracked'
Why tracked? because its last run 6 weeks ago went blip blip blip, bing bing bing, ping ping ping,on my radar.
Said horse, entered up jocked up for Monday afternoon.It has had multiple entries and not ran,it had 3 entries last week, from the Barber yard,who are not adverse to a winner or a tickle.
3 lifetime runs,debut course & distance winner,its last time out run caught my eye,because how the race panned out, where it finished,how it finished,what finished in front of it, and the unbeknown fact, at that time,that the winner of the race lto was beaten (only 7 lengths) in the Triumph Hurdle,further,horse of Tizzards that finished 2nd,came out and won well at 4/1 beating an odds on shot on March 10th
Mondays potential bet, 14 runner maiden hurdle class 5 only three horses inc 'us' got an official rating, we are 111.
Nick Scholfield has ridden this all 3 lifetime runs, rides on Monday.
Here is the tissue, 9/4 fav 4/1 2nd fav, we are put in 9/2.
There's more!
Below, still.
Doctor Parnassus bolting up, then running a screamer in the Triumph
Horse finishing 2nd,came out March 10th won 4/1 beating an odds on shot
Nortons Hill, horse finishing 4th
dropped from 2nd to 5th & 5th to 8th after not jumping 3 out, then stayed on strong & late running on.
Think? we might have a chance in a Monday maiden hurdle!
However Norton runs Monday, will watch it like a hawk,next 3 handicap runs.
Anatomy of a potential bet.
Over to the fella who bets in tens of thousands, can get on easily (apparently?)
to flag up a potential bet weeks days in advance!
Love to think Nortons opens 10s! and gets smashed in,cant see that, but.
Be Lucky Forum, always. Love Paul.xxx
For the future, Irish trainer Denis Hogan got a once raced 4 yo, be out soon (exciting)
Andrew Balding got a thrice raced 3yo to go to handicapping 'war' with (exciting)
exactly ditto
John Ferguson (exciting)
Finally, dont know when, but the one below will land a gamble 🤔 being plotted.
Norton Hill Wincanton Monday, fancy it! or;
Not and never have been trying to tell any 'forumites' how to suck a Golden Comet or Rhode Island Red' (best eggs!) when in comes to punting.
Plenty on here light years better than I.
Gee gees 2022, can still be 'done' with this caveat.
1.Singles on occasion doubles when exceptional trebles, all of the each way variety.
2.To get and add to the essential 'edge' required, hard graft, meaning two fold.
(a) every single race, every day, recorded and studied,then needs to be studied, without any reference to the betting market, and then again with full reference to the betting market,meaning, watch each and every race (recordings) through two pairs of eyes,the entire point of doing that is to have a working list, going forward, in simple broad terms, a working horses to follow list, that's organic,added to / deleted from, mainly with the working principle of next 3 runs.
3.betting bank, whatever that may be (rolling) a, maximum win bet 2% or 1% each way.
4.personal preference,would be minimum price you ever 'play at' 9/2.
simply eradicates the high strike rate requirements of the shorties.
5.more than ever, now, 2022,obviously and unless you know for certain sure, something will get smashed in the market,never place any bet (day to day, week to week) until / from 15 minutes pre race until off time,never, more than now,is that essential (for operating the way indicated above)
So broadly, that's the theory (above)
the rest comes down to your belief in your ability to have a working list of horses that are potential bets.
6.Mr Nevison & Mr Veitch individually got two things correct, they were;
Veitch race recordings forensic analysis
Nevison after Eddie the Shoe taught him 'nothings a bet,fancy nothing until I see available prices'
All that,put together, gives you a massive chance over the calendar year,plus any and each individual bet,becomes meaningless, on a single individual bet basis.Just the tricky little business of putting it all together!
Example,of potentially just one little bet!
A horse 'tracked'
Why tracked? because its last run 6 weeks ago went blip blip blip, bing bing bing, ping ping ping,on my radar.
Said horse, entered up jocked up for Monday afternoon.It has had multiple entries and not ran,it had 3 entries last week, from the Barber yard,who are not adverse to a winner or a tickle.
3 lifetime runs,debut course & distance winner,its last time out run caught my eye,because how the race panned out, where it finished,how it finished,what finished in front of it, and the unbeknown fact, at that time,that the winner of the race lto was beaten (only 7 lengths) in the Triumph Hurdle,further,horse of Tizzards that finished 2nd,came out and won well at 4/1 beating an odds on shot on March 10th
Mondays potential bet, 14 runner maiden hurdle class 5 only three horses inc 'us' got an official rating, we are 111.
Nick Scholfield has ridden this all 3 lifetime runs, rides on Monday.
Here is the tissue, 9/4 fav 4/1 2nd fav, we are put in 9/2.
There's more!
Below, still.
Doctor Parnassus bolting up, then running a screamer in the Triumph
Horse finishing 2nd,came out March 10th won 4/1 beating an odds on shot
Nortons Hill, horse finishing 4th
dropped from 2nd to 5th & 5th to 8th after not jumping 3 out, then stayed on strong & late running on.
Think? we might have a chance in a Monday maiden hurdle!
However Norton runs Monday, will watch it like a hawk,next 3 handicap runs.
Anatomy of a potential bet.
Over to the fella who bets in tens of thousands, can get on easily (apparently?)
to flag up a potential bet weeks days in advance!
Love to think Nortons opens 10s! and gets smashed in,cant see that, but.
Be Lucky Forum, always. Love Paul.xxx
For the future, Irish trainer Denis Hogan got a once raced 4 yo, be out soon (exciting)
Andrew Balding got a thrice raced 3yo to go to handicapping 'war' with (exciting)
exactly ditto
John Ferguson (exciting)
Finally, dont know when, but the one below will land a gamble 🤔 being plotted.
Comments
06.00 am, they bet...
happen to think, 13/2 a fifth 1 2 3 decent little bet.
might be tailed off, might win 5L,might be short headed photo 3rd 4th!
All ways up, its a bet.
30 minutes before it's late withdrawal they bet
(poss the fact it was about to be withdrawn) R4 reduction factor shinnanigins?
but only speculation! short as 7/2 with Hill Billies.
shame, will never know, fancied it Large!
This time I won't!
I have backed it,will back it again (and again) not posting screenshots of every bet, part win, part ew,market be interesting,up to and Inc race time.
same firm / team of the one I started this thread about that 2as a very late nr.
go again tomorrow.
Price dependent.
Smiled reading the Racing Posts how to be a pro punter (2022)
inc feat Skypokers very own N Channing,plus a cast of 80s 90s 0898 merchants! Odds 2 jobbers!
naughty horse tomorrow.
Form F F. F that's last 3 runs fell fell fell
Not seen a racecourse 239 days
Not just switched yards, switched countries.
First run,new yard Wincanton 15.05 Friday.
4yo mare off bottom weight, rude unofficial rating 110
tongue tie on,9 run, 4 of which are 100/1
they bet (yes backing, despite drift)
Now, had a long think and concluded this.
starting soon, flat racing only inc all weather tracks.
minimum price ever 7/2
200 point betting bank
maximum stakes ever 2% of a rolling betting bank.
(minimum stake ever 1 betting point)
maximum stake ever 2% of a rolling bank.
always rounded up to the next 1 betting point.
Any bet (s) posted by midday throughout.
A full monumental effort until the November handicap,see what can be done.
Before that, last two horses I will post.
1 today, 1 potentially this coming Thursday, one and the very same horse I started this thread about.Wont mention, or remind about Norton Hill, but it's entered (hopefully declared with N.S up) in potentially the perfect race.
Now today, remember I mentioned D Hogan hoss.
If I knew, that at 17.10 today, the 8 intended runners will run.
I would write & back right now,this is a MAXIMUM each way bet, at the available 10/1, but it will all go Pete Tong if not 8 starters.
So, do not back it, until seconds before the off, 3 places a fifth its a Maximum, 2 places a quarter, forget it.
Why? ran 2nd to the bumper hoss Elliott's team gave serious consideration to a run in Cheltenham Bumper (it didn't) went as low 16s for that at one time.
Elliott's hoss called Imagine, once raced, ubba impressive, Hogan's hoss Aide De Comp 2nd that day, oodlems of promise, please watch that replay via sporting life, and you will get my drift.
Best price now Aide De Camp for today 10/1 with 8 runners.
the write up below, is incorrect, just watch a replay of the race, and the first two, the winner Imagine was the shush shush bumper Elliott's yard thought top drawer, with the potential to upset the W Mullins Chelts bumper applecart.
All that irrelevant.
What's relevant is 10/1 a fifth 1 2 3 at 17.10 (17.09)! if 1 2 3 pays 3 places
I implore anyone, watch the entire race,fix on Aide De Camp, you will be backing it today (maximum each way) at 10s,va va value!
for this to be out the frame, either its stopped, or the L Byrne newcomer is a top drawer bumper hoss.
If you can find, something, by way of an each way double, 14s Aide & something else that's naughty ew, that's betting smarts.